🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Liked the Reds also, lineup looked a little different..

We ride the Nats tonight..

June 15:

     HOT STREAK WARNING! 

                                    BURNS,  Cinci

           This STARTER is riding a tenuous  9-game  HOT STREAK, 

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET! 

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.    Best to avoid!

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't guarantee his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe!   You decide.

Angels +123 @pinn  "value bet"       ...might win but not expected to win!  

Reminder:  my "value bets" are COIN-FLIPPERS!  ~ 50/50 either side, but the value is in taking the PLUS $$$ to accumaulate profit over the course of the season -- but not any particular game.... 50% chance either way....

REDS are killing them 

As good as this is with the most profitable capper, this place is full of polices and no contribution is allowed. 

Yep    Myers had a solid 1.08 WHIP stats as a RP but just *IMPLODED* allowing 7 on and 7 ER in only 1.3 ip

There goes my under.....

Gaaaadz  I hate unders!   Yet I have leans Cubs, Dbacks, and LAD games all staying under (a single/higher integer total)

But Cinci has signaled a reversal from their recent slump at the plate...

... and the CUBS reliever gives up a 2-out,  bases-loaded, WALK to tie the game. 

@fubah2

crazy unnecessary bottom of the 8th Cincy 3 run homerun to screw the O/9 push pooch that had lasted all the way back to the 2nd inning lol.. np thank u for solid capping

... sigh ... ....had a good night going ....BUT playing a hunch bet killed it.

  Well I'll be HORNSWOGGLED....the Cardiac Cubs did it in the bottom of the 9th, AGAIN!  This turns around what I figured was a sure loss into snatching a win from the jaws of defeat. 

Monday, June 15:

W  Philly -185 @pinn   *BB
W  Wash -127 @pinn   *BB
W  Cards -159 @pinn
W  Cards TT ov 2.5 -325 @SIA
 L   NYM/Cinci un 9 -124 @pinn           ...almost a *BB but I'm skittish with unders!
 L   Mets +121 @pinn "value bet"   ...only about 46.3% chance to win
W  KC/Wash both score 2+ YES -425   ...teeters on whether KC will score 2; Wash will
W  Cubbies -208 @pinn *BB            ...high risk;  Tailing NOT recommended!
pending...Angels +123 @pinn "value bet"

Posted by fubah2  Well I'll be HORNSWOGGLED....the Cardiac Cubs did it in the bottom of the 9th, AGAIN!  This turns around what I figured was a sure loss into snatching a win from the jaws of defeat.       

Yeaah lost a push after an unlucky start......but otoh gained a lucky win with the Cardiac Cubs in the bottom of the 9th, so it all evened out.... 

6 - 3  Monday   3 - 0 *BB

TACO Tuesday, June 16: (overnight lines)

BoSox +100 @FD         ...I have BoSox with a modest +0.5 run edge, but cheap odds

Washy -126 @pinn  *BB         ...I could be wrong but I have a +1.1 run edge

Miami +148 @pinn  "value bet"   ...Philly has only a smallish +0.3 run edge

CWS @NYY  I have Yankees with only a modest +0.5 run edge = PASS!

Mets  @Cinci  ...confusing starters; impossible to predict which team's bats will show up for game 2 so not even gonna bother trying to cap this (guessing would be heavily involved  and that is unwise)

That assumes the game gets played w/o a long rain delay...

@fubah2

Fubah rule:

  NEVER bet on a team (like the Cardiac Cubs!) with a very mediocre starter and a very suspect - struggling to score- offense which are inexplicably  laying very large odds to a team that almost beat them the night before despite a disadvantage on the mound!!!

Colorado +1.5 -120  @B365    ...missed the cut for a *BB; but Cardiac Cubs will likely win a close one

On the ML this game would NORMALLY qualify as a "value bet" as I have Cubs pegged for only a small +0.3 run edge......However, that number is subject to wide variance.    Cubs bats could finally show up for a game (or not)....OR....their beatdown of Feltner last time may or may not be repeated.... OR the Rockies bats could get to a below avg Cabrera.... I need less variance and more consistency in the numbers, hence not a "value bet" but a regular bet on the +RL...

No guarantees though!!    Ya payz yer money and ya takes yer chances...

Padres  @Meet me in St.Louis  ...only very small edge to Cards = PASS