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🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

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Legend
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Posted: #5276

Twins are already without their top slugger vs righties (JEFFERS) and today might be w/o their #2 best slugger vs righties (BUXTON).....not confirmed either way yet for their 2pm start...

 
Legend
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Posted: #5277

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Twins are already without their top slugger vs righties (JEFFERS) and today might be w/o their #2 best slugger vs righties (BUXTON).....not confirmed either way yet for their 2pm start...

Twins currently listed around -148 -151 or so,  which I will consider if he is CONFIRMED in.  Recommend watching this line to see  if it drops ...

 
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Posted: #5278

@fubah2

 clover

 
Legend
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Posted: #5279

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Twins are already without their top slugger vs righties (JEFFERS) and today might be w/o their #2 best slugger vs righties (BUXTON).....not confirmed either way yet for their 2pm start... Twins currently listed around -148 -151 or so,  which I will consider if he is CONFIRMED in.   

Recommend watching this line to see  if it drops ...

an_lightWatch the game total of 8.5 as well.  If it moves down he is likely OUT, since as we know, not all 9 positions on the lineup card are of equal weighting when it comes to anticipated run production.  Key bats (like BUXTON) are a much greater loss to the rpg projection

 
Legend
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Posted: #5280

D-Day, June 06:

an_police  an_blowhorn   HOT STREAK WARNING! an_speechless

 

                                    The MIZ,  Brewers

 

           This STARTER is riding a tenuous  12-game  HOT STREAK, an_lightening

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET! 

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway          

 

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  CAN NOT be avoided. an_shake Best to avoid!

 

an_lightCAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't guarantee his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe!   You decide.

 
Legend
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Posted: #5281

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

:

Cardiac Cubbies:

 

May 08:   an_2drinks#1      27 - 12      +56 diff .........HOME record:  18 - 5 then

After June 05:             33 - 31       +3 diff ..........HOME record:  19 - 14 now


   =  Recent efforts:        6 - 19       -53 net runs ........ 1 - 9  @Wiggly Field

 

...and Saturday they are significant HOME FAVS once again

 

Oddly, the line on CUBS has actually risen ... an_policeman

 
Prospect
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Posted: #5282

You are ab absolute legend! Great work! Appreciate what you do...hope good things come your way

 
Legend
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Posted: #5283

cool I have the  Cinci @ meet me in St.Louis game as a virtual "coin-flipper"......maybe a very tiny edge to the hometown Cards...very tiny...

OTOH, as a coin-flipper game, the REDS are not getting enough PLUS $$$ to justify them for my "value bet" status either.... Typically need to see around +120 or greater...

PASS

 
Legend
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Posted: #5284

Although reliever FISHER is listed as the starter for the Blew-it Jays, actually Spencer MILES is expected to pitch bulk relief.  He got beat up at Baltimore last game an_eek2

 

I have this game rated as a coin-flipper but with no real value either team...

 
Captain
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Posted: #5285
Take twins on run line!!!
 
Legend
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Posted: #5286

Trevor Larnach (L) LF
Brooks Lee (S) 3B
Kody Clemens (L) 1B
Josh Bell (S) DH
Austin Martin (R) RF
Victor Caratini (S) C
Royce Lewis (R) 2B
Tristan Gray (L) SS
Ryan Kreidler (R) CF

 

TWINS LINEUP

 
Legend
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Posted: #5287

@LVTruck

 peace_5  Ahh so.....yep....I see the line on TWINS has dropped 11 pts already and the total is trending underan_beatup

With their top TWO bats vs righties out, I've lowered my estimated rpg significantly, and while I still show TWINS with a small edge, it certainly isn't enough FOR ME to risk anything over -110

 
Legend
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Posted: #5288

Pitty @BRAVES   = coin-flipper;  no significant edge either team in estimated runs

 
Legend
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Posted: #5289

Despite their obvious woes the Cardiac CUBS should have an edge today of about +0.8 to +1.0 runs or so.

 

I would likely risk a bet on them ONLY IF their line was down around -115 to -122 or less

 
Legend
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Posted: #5290

Quote Originally Posted by Moose6836:

Take twins on run line!!!

Bad idea...

 
Legend
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Posted: #5291

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Saturday, June 06:  

Tiggers +119 @pinn  "value bet"   ...only 48.7% chance to win

CWS +119 @pinn  "value bet"   ...actually show CWS with a tiny +0.2 edge here

 
Legend
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Posted: #5292

Altuve back in the ASTROS lineup...

 
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Posted: #5293

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Saturday, June 06:   Tiggers +119 @pinn  "value bet"   ...only 48.7% chance to win CWS +119 @pinn  "value bet"   ...actually show CWS with a tiny +0.2 edge here

BOL on your plays Fubah!!

peace_5  clover

 
Legend
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Posted: #5294

Quote Originally Posted by FelixFermin21:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Saturday, June 06:   Tiggers +119 @pinn  "value bet"   ...only 48.7% chance to win CWS +119 @pinn  "value bet"   ...actually show CWS with a tiny +0.2 edge here

 

BOL on your plays Fubah!!

peace_5 clover

TY sir and BoL with your bets today!! an_2drinks

 
Legend
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Posted: #5295

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Saturday, June 06:  

Tiggers +119 @pinn  "value bet"   ...only 48.7% chance to win

CWS +119 @pinn  "value bet"   ...actually show CWS with a tiny +0.2 edge here

NATS +124 @pinn  "value bet"    ...actually show a tiny +0.2 edge here too

 

an_police *REMINDER: My "value" bets are NOT EXPECTED TO WIN!!! an_shake WRONG!  I'm taking *significant* PLUS $$$ on bonafide "coin-flippers" and anticipating my wins vs losses by the end of the season to be about 50/50.  They are coin-flips!   I do not expect to win, but rather hope to split as man as possible so that I earn profit on the difference - since ALL these "value" bets must be PLUS $$$ of around +120 or thereabouts and up! an_2drinks

 
Legend
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Posted: #5296

Quote Originally Posted by OO7CRUSHER:

@fubah2

clover

TY and BoL with your TAMPA bet today! clover

 
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Posted: #5297

Good luck today Fubah,that invitation is still open to tour the packer stadium  and the city. on me!

 
Legend
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Posted: #5298

Quote Originally Posted by mandy1:

Good luck today Fubah,that invitation is still open to tour the packer stadium  and the city. on me!

cool peace_5  an_cheers

 
Legend
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Posted: #5299

Fair breeze out to center in Philly today, with mediocre pitching anticipated...

 
 
Legend
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Posted: #5300

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Fair breeze out to center in Philly today, with mediocre pitching anticipated...

I have this game measured for about 9.5 to 11. 5 runs

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