He's consistent across the advanced ERA-scaled predictors and he backs that up with elite efficiency in strikeouts and forcing ground balls. His stats are as close to an ideal pitcher for me as they get. To make things even juicier, he's actually been unlucky with balls in play ranked #155 with .325 average. He's actually projected to improve on his .238 opponent batting average.
Compare these numbers to Wade Miley, who despite having the 7th lowest ERA among starting pitchers, has the #84 ranked SIERA and #88 ranked xFIP. He's only average in terms of strikeout efficiency and he's below average in forcing ground balls. I've got him ranked #69 among starters.
Milwaukee has a significant advantage in bullpen and they rank #9 offensively against lefties (compared to Arizona's #19 rank against righties).
All in all, even though the Brew Crew is on the road, they have a mathematical edge across the board. My advanced model projects them to have a 66.6% winning probability today. Even at -125 when it opened (I think you can find it cheaper now), implies a 53.2% winning percentage. +13.4% is a huge variance! This is a rather strong play for me, very close to a 2-unit wager. But it's too early in the season to get cocky like that.
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Quote Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:
Great job last night Si1ly! Not scared of Greinke on the road today? He just seems to implode far to often on the road for my liking.
I have Greinke ranked #1 among starting pitchers. Just look at how he ranks in these key advanced metrics:
He's consistent across the advanced ERA-scaled predictors and he backs that up with elite efficiency in strikeouts and forcing ground balls. His stats are as close to an ideal pitcher for me as they get. To make things even juicier, he's actually been unlucky with balls in play ranked #155 with .325 average. He's actually projected to improve on his .238 opponent batting average.
Compare these numbers to Wade Miley, who despite having the 7th lowest ERA among starting pitchers, has the #84 ranked SIERA and #88 ranked xFIP. He's only average in terms of strikeout efficiency and he's below average in forcing ground balls. I've got him ranked #69 among starters.
Milwaukee has a significant advantage in bullpen and they rank #9 offensively against lefties (compared to Arizona's #19 rank against righties).
All in all, even though the Brew Crew is on the road, they have a mathematical edge across the board. My advanced model projects them to have a 66.6% winning probability today. Even at -125 when it opened (I think you can find it cheaper now), implies a 53.2% winning percentage. +13.4% is a huge variance! This is a rather strong play for me, very close to a 2-unit wager. But it's too early in the season to get cocky like that.
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