FIRST PLAY OF SEASON | JASON BAY 23.5 HRs OVER -115 | Easy Money

Im generally not one for season long bets as they have a secondary cost associated to them of tying up your funds for half a calendar year and all, BUT I do pick my spots. I will be making 0-2 unit plays semi-daily and keeping track on covers. Here is my first play of the season:

Jason Bay 23.5 HRs OVER -115 $287.50 (max bet allowed on betus.com prop )

Explanation: Jason Bay is healthy, I think he stands a very solid chance of playing most of the season. Bay hit 36 HRs last season, some people are worried that in this Mets stadium he will see a serious drop-off and while that isnt complete non-sense its definitely not going to significantly affect things nearly enough to prevent him cruising past 24 HRs. He might lose 2-3 HRs over the course of the season as a result of the new home park.

On the plus side, hitters going from the American League to National League have generally seen minor improvements in their offensive output. CHONE projects Bay to hit 33 HRs next season, placing Bay in the top 10 for projected HR output next season according to their model. Bay's gains in power are real, they are not a product of Fenway. Bay has also hit 3 HRs in the spring - not that spring is worth much, but at least he appears to be in synch early.

No play is a guarantee, but this play is as easy as it gets. betus is smart for not letting me take them to town more with this one, I give it an 85% chance of hitting.

Any thoughts would be welcome, bet has been placed.

Edit: Bay is actually projected to hit 34 HRs in 2010 by CHONE.

over 23.5........like it

 

Very Solid Play,   GL                

BOL

thats 1 of my 2 future plays for this year

Bay Over 23.5 HRs -115

Mauer Over 164.5 Hits -115

NIce

Beware that park over Fenway. Check out the numbers.

Nice, Im still considering that Mauer one lol....I almost included it.

If you are talking about park factor...its not that drastic.

never play a prop like this. 1st off the linesmakers are goating you into it.  He has never played in the Mets new ball park which is huge and benefits the pitchers.  Secondly, baseball is a grueling sport 162 games????  Hell I would not play that prop w/ Pujols let alone Bay cause you have 162 different opportunities to have a season ending injury.  Best of luck but I would hate to play that have him sitting on 23 a rookie pitcher makes a spot start and he gets beaned brakes a bone in his wrist putting on the dl for the remainder of the season.  Or see him go for a pop up behind short and the short stop not hear him calling him off and they collide injuring and putting him out for the season.  Just nothing I would want to put money on too many invariable ways for you to lose.  Those projections are based on what happens if the player plays all 162.  Good Luck!!!

 win some 

You couldnt be more wrong. The projections take injury risk into account. Im hoping for 120+ games from Bay. Normally, I agree that the lines on these props are flawed...as I mentioned...but not this one. Injury risk is part of it DUH!!!!

Also pulled the trigger on

Mauer 164.5 hits OVER -115 $287.50 (max bet allowed on betus.com prop )

AND

Kendry Morales 24.5 HRs OVER -115 $287.50 (max bet allowed on betus.com prop )

Don't come in here telling me these are stupid because Im not factoring in injury risk.

Here is why these look good to me:

If Mauer hits .330+ and doesnt miss much time he will get that OVER. I hesitated before because he is a catcher and there is injury risk/rest factors there, but I feel comfortable that Mauer can conservatively hit .330 so I certainly believe this has a majority chance of cashing. Again, by boy CHONE projects Mauer to hit .332 and achieve 177 hits or so with 527 Abs.

His 2008 Line was: 146 Games, 536 ABs, 176 Hits
2009: 138 Games, 523 ABs, 191 Hits

As long as he stays on the field it VERY likely cashes.

Morales bet is one where Im not relying on projections as much. He hit 34 last year, I watched him a lot of them and he has power to all fields. I think while reaching 34 again might not happen, 25 is not a stretch even if he misses a few weeks.

so let me get this straight you are looking for Bay who in his career has only hit more than 24 homers 4 times in his career 3 times w/ the Pirates and last year w/ the Red Sox and only once while playing only 120 games is going to all of a sudden hit 24 or more in 120 games.  When 80 games are being played in his massive home ball park that turned a perrenial 30+ homerun guy in David Wright to a mere 5 home homeruns last season????

Bro...the way you misrepresent the facts here is both hilarious and desperate....shame on you.

HERE ARE THE FACTS:
In 6 career full-seasons: Bay has NEVER played less than 120 games. Bay has hit less than 24 homers in only 1 of those seasons, he hit 21 that year in an utterly off-year in every way for him...the obvious outlier of the group if you had to pick.

If you think park factor alone is going to derail him then you must be misinformed about these parks.

2009 MLB HOMERUN PARK FACTORS

Fenway Park 21st best for homeruns at 0.964 (1 = neutral for homeruns). Fenway givith AND Fenway takith away, never forget it.

Citi Field 12th best for homeruns at 1.057

If anything the new digs should help Bay. Wright's problems have nothing to do with the dimensions of the stadium, but rather his own mental/mechanical issues obviously and should not be used whatsoever as a meaningful indicator.