Couple thoughts

BIG.

$TUFFFED CRU$T.

LET$ RIDEEEE. 

I put a lot of work into today’s card. There were a few games I liked, and I don’t hate anything that made the short card, but every one had a little weakness or hiccup.

In the end, I felt the best opportunity to sweep the board was correlating these Washington wagers. The Nationals get off fast, they have been excellent on the first-five run line, and they smash fucking left-handed pitching.

Colorado is always dangerous because Coors is a weird place to play, but this comes down to getting after Freeland early. If Washington creates traffic and jumps on him, we should be in a great position to cash the first five.

From there, the full-game money line is set up. We just need Alvarez to keep us in the fucking game. Nothing fancy. Give the offense a chance to build a lead and let Washington finish the job.

@LVTruck

 LETS GO NAT$$$ 

$TART TO FINI$H LFG.

$TART TO FINI$H LFG.

ill catch you at game time bro

Double posting lolol we ain't got time to fkc around

BIG MONEY MONDAY 

Freeland is probably not truly a 7.36 ERA pitcher, but the numbers underneath still say he is bad and very attackable

Lv how close was zona from making the cut if you don't mind me asking 

The contact profile

.295 expected batting average
.497 expected slugging
90.9 mph average exit velocity
43.7% hard-hit rate
11.0% barrel rate
37.3% sweet-spot rate

Those are not numbers created only by bad luck. Hitters are consistently squaring him up and elevating the baseball

His four-seam fastball has been destroyed: hitters have a .398 xwOBA and .555 expected slugging percentage against it. His cutter has a .369 xwOBA, and even his curveball has a .361 xwOBA with a 55.2% hard-hit rate

his command has improved. He has walked only 4.5% of hitters this season, and over his last three starts he recorded 18 strikeouts 

TRUST THE PROCESS!!!

LET'S GO!!!

Washingtonis the type of lineup that can expose Freeland quickly. The only thing keeping me from calling it perfect is Coors volatility and the fact that Alvarez still has to keep Colorado from immediately answering. But offensively, the cap is lined up 

@LVTruck

I’m done looking at this game for now, and I need to step away for a bit. I’ll be back when it starts

Get em LV.

You mentioning AZ's all righty lineup with 4 switch hitters has me seeing AZ team total over 4.5 at -130.

Springs splits are rough, and his fip says that he's as bad as his era.

But knowing me, if I bet it a home team over, on a Monday, I'd burn like asbestos at a Great White concert.

Good luck dude 

@countrybob

I liked Arizona because they should hit Springs, but Bratt was the issue. I wasn’t convinced he could keep Oakland under control long enough. Plus, that extra hour matters I might run out of beer.

@undermysac

My book limits team totals, so I don’t spend much time handicapping them. I like the Nats over 6.5 and Arizona’s team total too, but the availability is so limited that I usually glance and move on.

Philly 4-0 out the gate 

You avoided the Twins. Joe Ryan nuclear bomb...

@undermysac

@LVTruck

 I played a prop Freeland over 3.5 earned runs.