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CHASE THE PLAYOFFS...RD.3

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Posted: #201
Quote Originally Posted by Codearmani:

Just came home, just got a hour to left before the first games begin. What are you guys on? I am already on:

Ball state -3 2U 
BYU +14 1 U 
Duke +10.5 1U

Looking for a 3-0 night 
 
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Posted: #202
5-1 Shady on your RR so far congrats and rooting for you on P.ST - Iowa game.
 
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Posted: #203
Angle nice call on kent st.
 
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Posted: #204
0-3.  Ugly.  But a wise 'winner' once told me that if you find something that wins >55% of the time, it can be a 85-90% winner [by chasing].   Personally, I'm doubling the 7pm  games... But then again I won all 3 of my big games today: ball st, kent st and BYU- so it's easier when your playing w/ house money.

Btw, those 3 games all came from great cappers on covers - not me!
 
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Posted: #205
Kst +3', over 34'
 
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Posted: #206
Well said Schiman thanks for the great insight guys well appreciated
 
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Posted: #207
Unc -7. 
Fade home dogs w/ a calc num b/w 14-21. Duke 14+10.5-7= 17.5.  
 
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Posted: #208
What do those calculations mean Schiman the scores 20-6
 
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Posted: #209
Okla 2H -13'
 
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Posted: #210

I have a question regarding the proline numbers on the spreadsheet.  Why are we using +8.5?  Is 8 a key number in CFB?  I dont recall that it is so just wondering.

 
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Posted: #211
Quote Originally Posted by fernandes119:

What do those calculations mean Schiman the scores 20-6

Read about Porkys 2H system. There is a ton of buzz about it. I post here b/c I like this forum- too much negativity elsewhere.

Basically, take the equation back to the initial odds, if the 2H is off from this calc by more than a set number then bet the set number.  I back test my numbers via a computer over a few years data... Wrong a lot , but right >55% of the time 
 
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Posted: #212
Marshall +4 2/H?
 
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Posted: #213
differential of 22
 
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Posted: #214
Sorry, hit submit too quick. 
So the diff is 14 on the duke game, they're dogs by 10.5 to start.  if Vegas is correct, unc needs 24.5 to break even on the cover.  2H odds was -7.  That's 17.5 off the 'set' number.  I've seen that over the past 3 years, 14-21 set numbers on home dogs loses 40% of the time- so I'm just playing odds.

Hope that makes sense. Tread lightly, I hate steering people wrong.
 
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Posted: #215
Quote Originally Posted by js4u:

Marshall +4 2/H?

I missed  getting it in, but it's a 16' set number... It's def due, but I found away dogs even out over time- the fact that Purdue lost earlier makes me want to chase this.
 
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Posted: #216
Been away most the day and after a terrible early set only only down a little. Hoping to cap off the Saturday with Oregon state -9.5,  any thoughts before I lock it in?
 
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Posted: #217

schiman

Marshall is a 22 pt differential.

14(score diff) +4(game spread) =18+4 (2/H line) =22 diffeential

 
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Posted: #218
no, dont have any opinion on that game mj 
 
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Posted: #219

schiman

Marshall is a 22 pt differential.

14 (score diff) +4 (game spread) =18+4 (2/H line) =22 differential

 
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Posted: #220
Penn State is a 26.5 point differential on the spread for the 2/H
 
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Posted: #221
WOULDN'T PENN ST +1.5 HAVE TO  BE A PLAY?
 
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Posted: #222
@codearmani

Thanks. Just thinking oregon state needs to focus on this game before a tough next four.  Utah coming of UCLA that was winnable and may be a let down. I state needs to keep pace with Oregon.  

Also maybe a bit of payback since Utah won last year. 

Oregon state needs a statement/blowout win.  I like their passing game even with backup QB. 

I'll play it and see what happens. 
 
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Posted: #223
I agree js4u, that's the tough thing about college, I had to get dinner and missed it 
 
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Posted: #224
Thanks  Schiman just watching now but very much appreciate what you are formulating.
 
 
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Posted: #225

MR TINGLES  Yes Penn tate was a play with a differential of 24.5

The play was Penn State +1 2/H

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