Small profit which results in ANOTHER winning day!No excuse why that Florida UNDER shouldn’t have hit……but then again that’s baseball.We got some good stuff tonight……Let’s roll!!!
Yesterday:
3 – 4 +1.325 Units
August:
3 – 4 +1.325 Units
Season:
199 – 162 – 7 +182.045 Units
Tonight.
MLB:
TEXAS / DETROIT UNDER 8.5 RUNS FOR 3 UNITS –
CHICAGO +135 OVER PITT FOR 3.5 UNITS –
NEW YORK METS -125 OVER FLORIDA FOR 2.5 UNITS –
NEW YORK YANKS +100 OVER CHICAGO SOX FOR 6 UNITS –
ST LOUIS +110 OVER MILWUAKEE FOR 3 UNITS –
MINNY +150 OVER LA ANGELS FOR 2 UNITS –
OAKLAND +140 OVER SEATTLE FOR 4 UNITS –
SAN DIEGO -105 OVER LA DODGERS FOR 5.5 UNITS –
ARIZONA +145 OVER SAN FRANCISCO FOR 2.5 UNITS –
GOOD LUCK!!!!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Small profit which results in ANOTHER winning day!No excuse why that Florida UNDER shouldn’t have hit……but then again that’s baseball.We got some good stuff tonight……Let’s roll!!!
Yesterday:
3 – 4 +1.325 Units
August:
3 – 4 +1.325 Units
Season:
199 – 162 – 7 +182.045 Units
Tonight.
MLB:
TEXAS / DETROIT UNDER 8.5 RUNS FOR 3 UNITS –
CHICAGO +135 OVER PITT FOR 3.5 UNITS –
NEW YORK METS -125 OVER FLORIDA FOR 2.5 UNITS –
NEW YORK YANKS +100 OVER CHICAGO SOX FOR 6 UNITS –
I also really want to thank you for your help yesterday. I wrote a long reply to you in my thread but you never came back. I want to incorporate a lot more dog plays in my strategy but I have a hard time capping them. Its a completely different art capping dogs than it is favs. Dogs are dogs for a reason. What are some of the stuff you look for when picking dogs. Any specific stats?
Also, I have been leaning Yankees as well but the pitcher scares me. Why do you feel so strong about him? Im almost to the point of locking it in but would love to hear your reasoning first.
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Goodluck man! I love your card.
I also really want to thank you for your help yesterday. I wrote a long reply to you in my thread but you never came back. I want to incorporate a lot more dog plays in my strategy but I have a hard time capping them. Its a completely different art capping dogs than it is favs. Dogs are dogs for a reason. What are some of the stuff you look for when picking dogs. Any specific stats?
Also, I have been leaning Yankees as well but the pitcher scares me. Why do you feel so strong about him? Im almost to the point of locking it in but would love to hear your reasoning first.
I also really want to thank you for your help yesterday. I wrote a long reply to you in my thread but you never came back. I want to incorporate a lot more dog plays in my strategy but I have a hard time capping them. Its a completely different art capping dogs than it is favs. Dogs are dogs for a reason. What are some of the stuff you look for when picking dogs. Any specific stats?
Also, I have been leaning Yankees as well but the pitcher scares me. Why do you feel so strong about him? Im almost to the point of locking it in but would love to hear your reasoning first.
Just saw it... good stuff. Thank you!
Man I will send (or post) a write up that will explain the dog situation a little better. I'm short on time and have a conference call with an invester at 5.
To answer what you have. Look at that pitcher the Yanks are throwing out. Hughes has been GOD AWFUL and yet he is almost getting even money with Danks??? Your asking yourself "how can that be" This looks like Chi Sox must be the right play!
Again here is a CLEAR example of the "line skew" which the odds makers have set. Chi Sox should be favored by at least -125 in this spot due to the pitchers. Not to much line movement here so I can't use the theory that the SHARPS are betting one side over the Public. However, it hasn't gone up towards Chicago so that does scare me a little. I show at 4 books that about 55% are betting the Sox.
If we saw that at 65 or 70% of the public wagers (remember MORE wagers equal public and MORE money (less wagers) equal the sharps) and that line stayed or even better moved down towards the Yanks; I would absolutely HAMMER the Yanks! In this case it scares me cause we don't see that scenario. We do however have slightly better trends/stats with the Yanks which makes me feel much better about the play (look what they do to left handed pitching).
Lastly, is the all importatnt VALUE we get here. I like the Value of one of MLB's best teams not being a rediculous favorite toniht and actually being an even money bet.
Got to run but will be back soon. Good Luck tonight!
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Quote Originally Posted by CloserX:
Goodluck man! I love your card.
I also really want to thank you for your help yesterday. I wrote a long reply to you in my thread but you never came back. I want to incorporate a lot more dog plays in my strategy but I have a hard time capping them. Its a completely different art capping dogs than it is favs. Dogs are dogs for a reason. What are some of the stuff you look for when picking dogs. Any specific stats?
Also, I have been leaning Yankees as well but the pitcher scares me. Why do you feel so strong about him? Im almost to the point of locking it in but would love to hear your reasoning first.
Just saw it... good stuff. Thank you!
Man I will send (or post) a write up that will explain the dog situation a little better. I'm short on time and have a conference call with an invester at 5.
To answer what you have. Look at that pitcher the Yanks are throwing out. Hughes has been GOD AWFUL and yet he is almost getting even money with Danks??? Your asking yourself "how can that be" This looks like Chi Sox must be the right play!
Again here is a CLEAR example of the "line skew" which the odds makers have set. Chi Sox should be favored by at least -125 in this spot due to the pitchers. Not to much line movement here so I can't use the theory that the SHARPS are betting one side over the Public. However, it hasn't gone up towards Chicago so that does scare me a little. I show at 4 books that about 55% are betting the Sox.
If we saw that at 65 or 70% of the public wagers (remember MORE wagers equal public and MORE money (less wagers) equal the sharps) and that line stayed or even better moved down towards the Yanks; I would absolutely HAMMER the Yanks! In this case it scares me cause we don't see that scenario. We do however have slightly better trends/stats with the Yanks which makes me feel much better about the play (look what they do to left handed pitching).
Lastly, is the all importatnt VALUE we get here. I like the Value of one of MLB's best teams not being a rediculous favorite toniht and actually being an even money bet.
Got to run but will be back soon. Good Luck tonight!
Read your thread the other day about the moves Texas made at the deadline and am in full agreement that they were inspired. I noticed you said you have connections to the front office and wondered if you knew what gives with them designating rhodes for assignment? I figured getting 2 solid righties Lowe would go to give them serious match up leverage every night?
Got some serious world series future interest in the Rangers this year hope they can go all the way buddy
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Hey Chapstk,
Read your thread the other day about the moves Texas made at the deadline and am in full agreement that they were inspired. I noticed you said you have connections to the front office and wondered if you knew what gives with them designating rhodes for assignment? I figured getting 2 solid righties Lowe would go to give them serious match up leverage every night?
Got some serious world series future interest in the Rangers this year hope they can go all the way buddy
So I looked further into the Yankees. I just wrote to this to Poolman(because I think you are doing that conference call) and would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Damn.. I want to bet on the Yankees SOO bad but hughes scares the hell
out of me. Everyone is saying that the fact that Chicago is missing
their best hitter and how yankees have killed lefties but...
White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
So that kind of evens that lefties advantage up for me. Also,, Yankies
might be against against LHP but they are going to be facing a solid
pitcher tonight... if white sox are good against RHP, then they might be
able to tear Hughes apart.
The one thing that I do like about hughes in this spot.. is that he
NEEDS to win tonight or else hes being dropped to bull pen and Nova will
take the 5th spot in the new rotation. So he will definitely be playing
with his heart.
What do you think man? What made you take the play? I am 90% I want to but i am still hesitant.
0
So I looked further into the Yankees. I just wrote to this to Poolman(because I think you are doing that conference call) and would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Damn.. I want to bet on the Yankees SOO bad but hughes scares the hell
out of me. Everyone is saying that the fact that Chicago is missing
their best hitter and how yankees have killed lefties but...
White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
So that kind of evens that lefties advantage up for me. Also,, Yankies
might be against against LHP but they are going to be facing a solid
pitcher tonight... if white sox are good against RHP, then they might be
able to tear Hughes apart.
The one thing that I do like about hughes in this spot.. is that he
NEEDS to win tonight or else hes being dropped to bull pen and Nova will
take the 5th spot in the new rotation. So he will definitely be playing
with his heart.
What do you think man? What made you take the play? I am 90% I want to but i am still hesitant.
Read your thread the other day about the moves Texas made at the deadline and am in full agreement that they were inspired. I noticed you said you have connections to the front office and wondered if you knew what gives with them designating rhodes for assignment? I figured getting 2 solid righties Lowe would go to give them serious match up leverage every night?
Got some serious world series future interest in the Rangers this year hope they can go all the way buddy
Yeah my connections are that my brother and I own a publication that franchises out nation wide and the Rangers are advertising clients. Plus my ex-college roomate (who also played ball with me) is dating a high ranking director for the Rangers and I happend to be on the Golf Course with them on Sunday morning. So the information I was sharing is coming from the organization and they belive that their starting rotation is set and are please with the talent they have.
Listen if the Rangers thought there rotation was SHAKY (like that guy exclaimed) then why didn't they go get Jimenez? They had FAR more to offer than Cleveland would have and it wouldn't have put them out any (Best Farm in MLB). Cleveland really didn't offer that much which I was SHOCKED. They have Jimenez locked up through 2014 so it would have been a GREAT value to the Rangers as well (unlike having to negotiate next year like with Lee). Again the reasons were simple. They love thier starting rotation (especially with the 3 young guns) and don't find it SHAKY at all!
That's why I blew up at that guy cause he obviously doesn't know shit about baseball. Oh but he lived 10 minutes from the Stadium.
Anyway, your queston was about Rhodes. They have been VERY dissatisfied with him. He has been horrible since leaving Cincy! I've watched that guy pitch a lot this year and his velocity is way down which makes his only pitch that damn slider. If he can't throw a fast ball then the hitters just sit back on that slider and if its in the zone they crush it!
I really like these moves they pulled off. Koji is just a typical sinker ball Japanees pitcher but he has a wicked fast ball with all kinds of movement. He sits up that fast ball with sinkers early in the count and then he just unloads on it! He is a stud.
Then they go after arguably the BEST reliever in the NL West and just stole him from San Diego. Adams is filthy and his 48 appearances and 1.23 era proves it!
You should have a lot to be proud of with your Rangers brother! Now let's see if they can come back and win this one tonight!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by UKCrazyDave:
Hey Chapstk,
Read your thread the other day about the moves Texas made at the deadline and am in full agreement that they were inspired. I noticed you said you have connections to the front office and wondered if you knew what gives with them designating rhodes for assignment? I figured getting 2 solid righties Lowe would go to give them serious match up leverage every night?
Got some serious world series future interest in the Rangers this year hope they can go all the way buddy
Yeah my connections are that my brother and I own a publication that franchises out nation wide and the Rangers are advertising clients. Plus my ex-college roomate (who also played ball with me) is dating a high ranking director for the Rangers and I happend to be on the Golf Course with them on Sunday morning. So the information I was sharing is coming from the organization and they belive that their starting rotation is set and are please with the talent they have.
Listen if the Rangers thought there rotation was SHAKY (like that guy exclaimed) then why didn't they go get Jimenez? They had FAR more to offer than Cleveland would have and it wouldn't have put them out any (Best Farm in MLB). Cleveland really didn't offer that much which I was SHOCKED. They have Jimenez locked up through 2014 so it would have been a GREAT value to the Rangers as well (unlike having to negotiate next year like with Lee). Again the reasons were simple. They love thier starting rotation (especially with the 3 young guns) and don't find it SHAKY at all!
That's why I blew up at that guy cause he obviously doesn't know shit about baseball. Oh but he lived 10 minutes from the Stadium.
Anyway, your queston was about Rhodes. They have been VERY dissatisfied with him. He has been horrible since leaving Cincy! I've watched that guy pitch a lot this year and his velocity is way down which makes his only pitch that damn slider. If he can't throw a fast ball then the hitters just sit back on that slider and if its in the zone they crush it!
I really like these moves they pulled off. Koji is just a typical sinker ball Japanees pitcher but he has a wicked fast ball with all kinds of movement. He sits up that fast ball with sinkers early in the count and then he just unloads on it! He is a stud.
Then they go after arguably the BEST reliever in the NL West and just stole him from San Diego. Adams is filthy and his 48 appearances and 1.23 era proves it!
You should have a lot to be proud of with your Rangers brother! Now let's see if they can come back and win this one tonight!!!
So I looked further into the Yankees. I just wrote to this to Poolman(because I think you are doing that conference call) and would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Damn.. I want to bet on the Yankees SOO bad but hughes scares the hell out of me. Everyone is saying that the fact that Chicago is missing their best hitter and how yankees have killed lefties but...
White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
So that kind of evens that lefties advantage up for me. Also,, Yankies might be against against LHP but they are going to be facing a solid pitcher tonight... if white sox are good against RHP, then they might be able to tear Hughes apart.
The one thing that I do like about hughes in this spot.. is that he NEEDS to win tonight or else hes being dropped to bull pen and Nova will take the 5th spot in the new rotation. So he will definitely be playing with his heart.
What do you think man? What made you take the play? I am 90% I want to but i am still hesitant.
Yeah the first thing I would say is that's what everyone thinks. Hughes makes them nervous! So then why was it virtually a pick'm line? You have to look into why Vegas sets lines a certain way and bet with the "line skew" if its there and makes senese.
I don't agree with him at all about the "even things out" with the Sox going 5-1 vs. righties and the Yankees hitting lefties well. The Yankees have CRUSHED left handed pitching ALL year and just cause the Sox have won 5 out of last 6 shouldn't make someone bet based on that stat. Shit there is probably 15 teams that win 5 of their last 6 against Righties this month!
Now make no mistake I could be wrong about tonight and lose the game; but the game fits the model we look for and as I explained previous all elements are virtually covered. The Skew, Action, Stats/Trends and the Value.
I do agree with him that Hughes is trying to keep the rotation job. He is under the microscope and that can be really good for us tonight (assuming he can handle the pressure).
Anyway, I hope that helped? I will send you something later on that will explain some things about dog lines.
Good Luck tonight buddy!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by CloserX:
So I looked further into the Yankees. I just wrote to this to Poolman(because I think you are doing that conference call) and would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Damn.. I want to bet on the Yankees SOO bad but hughes scares the hell out of me. Everyone is saying that the fact that Chicago is missing their best hitter and how yankees have killed lefties but...
White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
So that kind of evens that lefties advantage up for me. Also,, Yankies might be against against LHP but they are going to be facing a solid pitcher tonight... if white sox are good against RHP, then they might be able to tear Hughes apart.
The one thing that I do like about hughes in this spot.. is that he NEEDS to win tonight or else hes being dropped to bull pen and Nova will take the 5th spot in the new rotation. So he will definitely be playing with his heart.
What do you think man? What made you take the play? I am 90% I want to but i am still hesitant.
Yeah the first thing I would say is that's what everyone thinks. Hughes makes them nervous! So then why was it virtually a pick'm line? You have to look into why Vegas sets lines a certain way and bet with the "line skew" if its there and makes senese.
I don't agree with him at all about the "even things out" with the Sox going 5-1 vs. righties and the Yankees hitting lefties well. The Yankees have CRUSHED left handed pitching ALL year and just cause the Sox have won 5 out of last 6 shouldn't make someone bet based on that stat. Shit there is probably 15 teams that win 5 of their last 6 against Righties this month!
Now make no mistake I could be wrong about tonight and lose the game; but the game fits the model we look for and as I explained previous all elements are virtually covered. The Skew, Action, Stats/Trends and the Value.
I do agree with him that Hughes is trying to keep the rotation job. He is under the microscope and that can be really good for us tonight (assuming he can handle the pressure).
Anyway, I hope that helped? I will send you something later on that will explain some things about dog lines.
Awesome man! So far so good on the bet! Thanks again for all of the help. Its great reading how your brain sees things. Its funny how different 2 people can see things. Im just glad, how you view things completely makes sense to me lol.
GL tonight! so far, it looks like you are going to kill it!
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Awesome man! So far so good on the bet! Thanks again for all of the help. Its great reading how your brain sees things. Its funny how different 2 people can see things. Im just glad, how you view things completely makes sense to me lol.
GL tonight! so far, it looks like you are going to kill it!
Damn... I am really thinking about putting a little down on minny. They have done well against LAA and I forget the exact numbers but after someone throws a no no, they tend to choke up a little the next game. The odds are really attractive.
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Damn... I am really thinking about putting a little down on minny. They have done well against LAA and I forget the exact numbers but after someone throws a no no, they tend to choke up a little the next game. The odds are really attractive.
Unbelievable! Florida and New York did it to me again. For F*** sakes can ANYONE save a game for these teams!
I don't get why he didn't throw it to 2nd to start the double play. Wasn't it bases loaded with 1 out? Why did he throw it to first? Isn't it a force out at 2nd?
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Quote Originally Posted by Chapstk:
Unbelievable! Florida and New York did it to me again. For F*** sakes can ANYONE save a game for these teams!
I don't get why he didn't throw it to 2nd to start the double play. Wasn't it bases loaded with 1 out? Why did he throw it to first? Isn't it a force out at 2nd?
I don't get why he didn't throw it to 2nd to start the double play. Wasn't it bases loaded with 1 out? Why did he throw it to first? Isn't it a force out at 2nd?
I have NO idea why he decided to do that! I agree he should have gone 2nd or Home first! Bad choice man...
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Quote Originally Posted by ka678:
I don't get why he didn't throw it to 2nd to start the double play. Wasn't it bases loaded with 1 out? Why did he throw it to first? Isn't it a force out at 2nd?
I have NO idea why he decided to do that! I agree he should have gone 2nd or Home first! Bad choice man...
I think they said the ball wasn't hit hard enough for them to complete the double play. But shouldn't they be playing the infield in? Bad coaching
Actually NO you don't pull your infield in. You are up 1 so you lay back for a double play and then you have 1st and 3rd lines gaurded to prevent the double and go ahead run to score. I watched again and it looked like it would have been close to call at home.
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Quote Originally Posted by ka678:
I think they said the ball wasn't hit hard enough for them to complete the double play. But shouldn't they be playing the infield in? Bad coaching
Actually NO you don't pull your infield in. You are up 1 so you lay back for a double play and then you have 1st and 3rd lines gaurded to prevent the double and go ahead run to score. I watched again and it looked like it would have been close to call at home.
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