Carpenter Is Not Good Against Texas

So I'll take Texas tonight at + 109  which is currently dropping.

Because it's an average? Also, the under accounts for both teams. ERA = opposing team only.

YOU ARE CORRECT AND THAT WAS WITH THE BLUE JAYS AND THET WERE NOT VERY GOOD AT THE TIME.

Because the Lines were 10.5,10.5 12.5. 

Dude get a clue. Everyone here knows How I cap  I can show overs that are 12 for 12 going back farther than 7 years.

SF was 4-1 SU against Det with differant coaches players and ETC going back farther than 7 years make it 5-1 now after Sunday.

I'll be on the horrible Dolphins Sunday to. This going back to 1992 so even more worthless.

Johny has ALWAYS used historical data when capping.....this is nothing new......or it shouldnt be anyways.

BOL tonight Johny......i like the rangers as well

Johny... I just got one question for you... Is Carpenter worst against Texas or does Andy Ried have a fatter face?  I am on TEX too... BOL!

Okay let me say this again... What is worst?  Chris Carpenter's records versus Texas or Andy Ried's fat face?  Okay that makes more sense.

I agree with taking Tex and even think wilson is a better pitcher than Carp. However, not on the data you are basing your opinion on. Doing an apples to apples comparison - Wilson vs Carp - take a look at what Sagarin says - Basically He ranks Carp. at 13 but to get a better picture - how many men does carp allow on base - using sagarin's technique - 12 - but he gets credit for strikeouts - 5 - thus a formula of 13 + (12 - 5) = 20.  Do the same thing with Wilson, you get 17 - Lower the better - thus Wilson is better on paper using sag. data.  But we all know pitchers never go 32 - 0, so we need to go another couple of steps and realize that in this situation with an opening line of +110 for Stl. what usually happens?  Well history indicates most opening lines are not +110, they are minus something - 110, -115, - 120 etc.   Based on my data, history has shown that when an opening line is + 105 or + 110, ttake the opposite team.  Thus take Tex.  Looking at how well Carp has done against tex in the past - should not be dismissed but probably should not be considered your main reason for taking either pitcher. Another issue - when pitchers face hitters they are not use to seeing - the hitters seem to have an advantage - higher scoring etc. plus take a look at the weather....unless the wind is blowing out at 15-20 - i don't mess with o/u.  Also, if it means anything - stl has a record of 11-15 on weds. vice tex 13-11. - In today's match up the line of +110 is the key indicator of who I believe will win this game - thus I'm going with Tex. - As always Good luck all.

TB