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Bodio's MLB Tue 09/13

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Posted: #51
You got me with Brewers , I'm in  with -2 to kill the juice , too many injuries for Rox today
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
184 - 144 @ 56% for +21.57 Units
Tue 09/13

#2: Los Angeles Angels -105
Williams has the 5th best xFIP in the league and has never faced the A's before. Moscoso's xFIP is ranked #228 out of 250 starting pitchers. He's already faced LAA once, and is coming off a 129 pitch outing. I know Oakland is 6-1 against the Angels this year, but these kinds of things should regress back to 50%. I really have no idea why these odds are so 'short' as I would expect LAA to be a bigger favorite. This is my favorite play today.


I like the MIL and Arizona plays, but not the Angels one because Williams is on the edge of AAA and the majors.  His great sounding numbers are in 3 starts; one vs. Baltimore, and two against the Mariners.  The Angels had so many offensive opportunities yesterday that they squandered.  Last time out Moscoso threw a two hitter for 8 2/3.  Oakland's record is oddly good against the Angels, but why should it change this year?  Angels 1-5 last six on road vs. RHP 

 
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Posted: #53
bodio
is MIL still a play with Tulo in, Cargo, Helton and Ellis all playing?
 
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Posted: #54
good luck bodio!!
 
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Posted: #55

I am fading the D Backs til the end of the year

regardless

GL bro

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Nice I have the same plays but with MIL to PHI to DET on there as well. I had the same 3 gamer with Barca and got mugged in injury time.

Thanx for the time and insights and especially GL tonight

Damn, that Barca draw sucked for the guys that parlayed them.  Didn't see the goal but saw that it was really late.  That's too bad
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by TiltRepeater:

I like the MIL and Arizona plays, but not the Angels one because Williams is on the edge of AAA and the majors.  His great sounding numbers are in 3 starts; one vs. Baltimore, and two against the Mariners.  The Angels had so many offensive opportunities yesterday that they squandered.  Last time out Moscoso threw a two hitter for 8 2/3.  Oakland's record is oddly good against the Angels, but why should it change this year?  Angels 1-5 last six on road vs. RHP 

 

Ive watched all 3 starts of Jerome Williams games this year and other then his 1st start against the orioles (his debut) he has looked lights out. His last game he shouldve thrown a no hitter but hit only hit was a weak homerun where the fan totally reached over the fence to grab it but it wasnt over turned for some reason, angels announcers were livid.

 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by afgking4life:

bodio
is MIL still a play with Tulo in, Cargo, Helton and Ellis all playing?

Yes...still a play
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

I am fading the D Backs til the end of the year

regardless

GL bro


how come?
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by StevieY:

 

Ive watched all 3 starts of Jerome Williams games this year and other then his 1st start against the orioles (his debut) he has looked lights out. His last game he shouldve thrown a no hitter but hit only hit was a weak homerun where the fan totally reached over the fence to grab it but it wasnt over turned for some reason, angels announcers were livid.


Good to know. I don't see Moscoso throwing another 'gem' today.  
Good luck
 
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Posted: #61
gl Bodio
 
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Posted: #62
Yeah it moved the parlay up 75 cents from +220 to +295...Added TB ML to the other 3 MLB ones for tonights longshot.
 
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Posted: #63
GL everyone!
 
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Posted: #64
Nice... I like them all.  Good luck!
 
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Posted: #65
hey Bodio...thanks for all your hard work.  I like all your picks, but BETUS lines are not good...would you bet them at:

#1: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 RL -110 -150??


#2: Los Angeles Angels -105  -120??
 

#3: Arizona Diamondbacks -130  -160
 
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Posted: #66
good luck bodio
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by ChipJohnson:

hey Bodio...thanks for all your hard work.  I like all your picks, but BETUS lines are not good...would you bet them at:

#1: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 RL -110 -150??

#2: Los Angeles Angels -105  -120??
 
#3: Arizona Diamondbacks -130  -160

wow man, those are some bad lines.
I just put in my bets at pinnacle and I got.....
mil -1.5  -108
laa   +104
arizona  -135

Personaly, I would say that you have lost the value in the plays with those lines.  I mean, you are 10-30% worse than the original bet.   In mlb, there is just too much variance.   

Curious to see what bodio will say.

good luck
 
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Posted: #68
Lets do this brother GL
 
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Posted: #69

Quote Originally Posted by StevieY:

Ive watched all 3 starts of Jerome Williams games this year and other then his 1st start against the orioles (his debut) he has looked lights out. His last game he shouldve thrown a no hitter but hit only hit was a weak homerun where the fan totally reached over the fence to grab it but it wasnt over turned for some reason, angels announcers were livid.

I haven't actually watched Williams.   it's always cool when the announcers will go against the umpires BS so long as it's not just red meat for the home crowd.  GL

 
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Posted: #70
LET'S GO MILWAUKEE!
 
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Posted: #71
It's going to be a long night
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
184 - 144 @ 56% for +21.57 Units




Tue 09/13

#1: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 RL -110
I haven't backed Greinke in awhile but this is a good spot. Rockies have Esmil Rogers on the mound who's been a disaster this year. Tulo is out for Colorado with a number of other players questionable and day-to-day. I expect Greinke to be sharp as Milwaukee should win this one comfortably.

#2: Los Angeles Angels -105
Williams has the 5th best xFIP in the league and has never faced the A's before. Moscoso's xFIP is ranked #228 out of 250 starting pitchers. He's already faced LAA once, and is coming off a 129 pitch outing. I know Oakland is 6-1 against the Angels this year, but these kinds of things should regress back to 50%. I really have no idea why these odds are so 'short' as I would expect LAA to be a bigger favorite. This is my favorite play today.

#3: Arizona Diamondbacks -130
I'm going to ride the Ian Kennedy streak here as he's been unhittable. At the same time I see no reason NOT to continue fading Billigsley. His xFIP went from 3.5 in APR+MAY to 4.0 in JUL to 4.60 in AUG (5.66 in Sept but only 1 start). He's allowed 24 hits in the last 12 innings of work with 10K's to 8 BB's. Just a huge discrepancy in the 'current' quality of these 2 starters. I like the D-Backs to get a comfortable win here.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580




"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"


I was on MIL RL and ARZ ML myself and I can't believe that the MIL game is 1-1 in extra innings. I really expected an easy win for them tonight. Crazy!
 
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Posted: #73
Let's go SNAKES
 
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Posted: #74
2-1 on the day

Nice job Bodio!
 
 
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Posted: #75
great job again Bodio......appreciate your time and effort 
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