Posted:
#76
0
Bodio's MLB Fri 04/29
Bodio.
Posted:
#89
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
#3: Milwaukee Brewers -133
I initially passed on this game, but my brother brought it to my attention a couple of hours ago and I decided to take a closer look. Well, I really like this play and will make it my 3rd wager of the day. This is a rematch between these 2 pitchers from their previous start. Neither performed really well with Myers going 6.1 inn; 10 hits, 5 ER's; 1 HR; 1 BB and 4K's while throwing 112 pitches. Marcum went 6 innings, 7 hits, 4 ER's, 2 HR's, 1 BB and 8 K's, throwing 96 pitches. While will today be a different outcome? Well, Marcum faced Houston's bats for the first time ever in that game. Sure they hit him, but in their life-times they only hae 31 AB's off him (very small sample size). What's interesting is that out of 12 hits, 7 came from Bill Hall, in only 10 AB's. The rest of the Astros are batting .238 off him in those limited AB's. In addition, Marcum had a terrible 1st inning in the last outing, allowing 3 of his 4 ER"s in that one, and giving up 4 hits in the inning. He settled down and gave up 1 ER's on 3 hits in the last 5 innings of that start. I expect his performance today to be similar to those 5 innings. Myers, on the other hand, has faced these Milwaukee batters for 129 career AB's -- much bigger sample size. Brewers hitters are batting .326 off him with .362 OBP and .874 OPS> There are a number of hitters that have fared well off hIm (not just one like is the case with Marcum): Weeks .267 BA/.313 OBP; Fielder .375 BA/.412 OBP (3 HR's / 7 RBI in 16 AB's); Betancourt .400 BA (5 AB's); Braun .263 BA with 1 HR in 19 AB's; Gomez .333 BA; McGehee .267 BA in 15 AB's...you get the point.
When looking at advanced stats Marcum's 3.38 FIP and 3.52 xFIP are much better than Myers' 4.76 / 4.44. In addition, Myers has a 1.38 HR/9 ratio compared to .91 HR/9 for Marcum. With Myers' .283 BABIp, 84% LOB% (ave is 70%), and -1.45 E-F (12th worst) I expect him to continue regressing. He has given up at least 1 HR in his last 4 starts and 32 hits in 25 innings in those. As Myers is regressing to the negative, I expect Marcum to actually improve over his first outing against the 'Stros. The result of this rematch will be very different from when these teams faced off 6 days ago.
I initially passed on this game, but my brother brought it to my attention a couple of hours ago and I decided to take a closer look. Well, I really like this play and will make it my 3rd wager of the day. This is a rematch between these 2 pitchers from their previous start. Neither performed really well with Myers going 6.1 inn; 10 hits, 5 ER's; 1 HR; 1 BB and 4K's while throwing 112 pitches. Marcum went 6 innings, 7 hits, 4 ER's, 2 HR's, 1 BB and 8 K's, throwing 96 pitches. While will today be a different outcome? Well, Marcum faced Houston's bats for the first time ever in that game. Sure they hit him, but in their life-times they only hae 31 AB's off him (very small sample size). What's interesting is that out of 12 hits, 7 came from Bill Hall, in only 10 AB's. The rest of the Astros are batting .238 off him in those limited AB's. In addition, Marcum had a terrible 1st inning in the last outing, allowing 3 of his 4 ER"s in that one, and giving up 4 hits in the inning. He settled down and gave up 1 ER's on 3 hits in the last 5 innings of that start. I expect his performance today to be similar to those 5 innings. Myers, on the other hand, has faced these Milwaukee batters for 129 career AB's -- much bigger sample size. Brewers hitters are batting .326 off him with .362 OBP and .874 OPS> There are a number of hitters that have fared well off hIm (not just one like is the case with Marcum): Weeks .267 BA/.313 OBP; Fielder .375 BA/.412 OBP (3 HR's / 7 RBI in 16 AB's); Betancourt .400 BA (5 AB's); Braun .263 BA with 1 HR in 19 AB's; Gomez .333 BA; McGehee .267 BA in 15 AB's...you get the point.
When looking at advanced stats Marcum's 3.38 FIP and 3.52 xFIP are much better than Myers' 4.76 / 4.44. In addition, Myers has a 1.38 HR/9 ratio compared to .91 HR/9 for Marcum. With Myers' .283 BABIp, 84% LOB% (ave is 70%), and -1.45 E-F (12th worst) I expect him to continue regressing. He has given up at least 1 HR in his last 4 starts and 32 hits in 25 innings in those. As Myers is regressing to the negative, I expect Marcum to actually improve over his first outing against the 'Stros. The result of this rematch will be very different from when these teams faced off 6 days ago.
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
Thanks Bodio. Does your brother post here as well?
0
you're the MAN! 
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