Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
36 - 24 @ 60% for +9.42 Units
Fri, 04/29
#1: Seattle Mariners +185
Seattle is coming into this game off an impressive 3-game road sweep of the Tigers. Can they win 4th straight on the road? I think they have a great shot. Here's why:
First of all, Seattle's offense is 'hot' right now, averaging 8 rpg and 11 hits per, in the last 3 games. Red Sox have been playing much better as well, but this team only averages 3.7 rpg against lefty starters, batting .235 in the process. Tonight, they'll face off against Vargas, against whom they're batting only .233 with OBP of .306 and OPS of .678. Guys like Crawford, Scuatoro, and Gonzalez are 1 for 19 combined off him. In his 2 career starts against Boston, Vargas has an ERA of 2.19, with his team splitting the 2 games. Interestingly, both were 1-run games, thus Vargas is able to keep these 'close'. (Maybe a RL wager is in order as well) On the season, Vargas has an FIP of 3.22 (#38th) and xFIP of 3.84 (#65th). He has a very UNlucky BABIP of .322 and +2.31 (5th best) E-F, suggesting that a regression to the positive is in order. Matsuzaka has been pitching well lately, allowing 1 hit in each of his last 2 starts. Even so, he has an FIP of 4.72 (#100th) and xFIP of 4.81 (#108th). His BABIP of .210 indicates extreme 'luck' and I expect him to regress further. These Mariners hitters are averaging .308 off him, with OBP of .451 and OPS of .913 in 65 career at-bats. Furthermore, Daisuke is coming off an outing where he threw 115 pitches, matching his highest total from last year. How sharp will he be today? I do expect the Mariners to have some success off him tonight. Even if this game is decided by the bullpens, Mariners have an advantage. Their relief pitchers have the 5th best FIP compared to 21st for the Red Sox. Boston is coming home after a long 9-game West-coast/Baltimore road-trip and will be facing a hot team with better pitching. +185 odds indicate that Seattle has 36% chance of winning this game, while Red Sox have 66% for the victory (adjusted for their odds). That's the same thing as saying that they would go 107-55 in a full 162 game season if they played every single game under the same conditions outlined above. I think you get the picture that there's definitely 'value' on the Mariners in this one.
#2: Chicago Cubs -106
This one is pretty much a 'fade' of Galarraga. I'm actually mad at myself for not 'fading' him in his last outing (I just missed it somehow), but won't make that mistake twice. Galarraga is a horrible pitcher. His 7.76 FIP is the worst in the league (among pitchers that qualify), and his .241 BABIP (17th luckiest) along with -1.76 E-F (7th worst) is a clear indication that he'll continue to regress. Zambrano is actually coming off a poor outing where he threw only 85 pitches, and I expect him to rebound in this one. Against a 'Zona lineup that is batting .245 off him with OBP of only .263, this is a good spot to back him. Cubs are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and 8-0 in Zambrano's last 8 starts against a team with a losing record. Even if this one goes to the bullpens, the Cubs have a substantial advantage.
Good luck!
36 - 24 @ 60% for +9.42 Units
Fri, 04/29
#1: Seattle Mariners +185
Seattle is coming into this game off an impressive 3-game road sweep of the Tigers. Can they win 4th straight on the road? I think they have a great shot. Here's why:
First of all, Seattle's offense is 'hot' right now, averaging 8 rpg and 11 hits per, in the last 3 games. Red Sox have been playing much better as well, but this team only averages 3.7 rpg against lefty starters, batting .235 in the process. Tonight, they'll face off against Vargas, against whom they're batting only .233 with OBP of .306 and OPS of .678. Guys like Crawford, Scuatoro, and Gonzalez are 1 for 19 combined off him. In his 2 career starts against Boston, Vargas has an ERA of 2.19, with his team splitting the 2 games. Interestingly, both were 1-run games, thus Vargas is able to keep these 'close'. (Maybe a RL wager is in order as well) On the season, Vargas has an FIP of 3.22 (#38th) and xFIP of 3.84 (#65th). He has a very UNlucky BABIP of .322 and +2.31 (5th best) E-F, suggesting that a regression to the positive is in order. Matsuzaka has been pitching well lately, allowing 1 hit in each of his last 2 starts. Even so, he has an FIP of 4.72 (#100th) and xFIP of 4.81 (#108th). His BABIP of .210 indicates extreme 'luck' and I expect him to regress further. These Mariners hitters are averaging .308 off him, with OBP of .451 and OPS of .913 in 65 career at-bats. Furthermore, Daisuke is coming off an outing where he threw 115 pitches, matching his highest total from last year. How sharp will he be today? I do expect the Mariners to have some success off him tonight. Even if this game is decided by the bullpens, Mariners have an advantage. Their relief pitchers have the 5th best FIP compared to 21st for the Red Sox. Boston is coming home after a long 9-game West-coast/Baltimore road-trip and will be facing a hot team with better pitching. +185 odds indicate that Seattle has 36% chance of winning this game, while Red Sox have 66% for the victory (adjusted for their odds). That's the same thing as saying that they would go 107-55 in a full 162 game season if they played every single game under the same conditions outlined above. I think you get the picture that there's definitely 'value' on the Mariners in this one.
#2: Chicago Cubs -106
This one is pretty much a 'fade' of Galarraga. I'm actually mad at myself for not 'fading' him in his last outing (I just missed it somehow), but won't make that mistake twice. Galarraga is a horrible pitcher. His 7.76 FIP is the worst in the league (among pitchers that qualify), and his .241 BABIP (17th luckiest) along with -1.76 E-F (7th worst) is a clear indication that he'll continue to regress. Zambrano is actually coming off a poor outing where he threw only 85 pitches, and I expect him to rebound in this one. Against a 'Zona lineup that is batting .245 off him with OBP of only .263, this is a good spot to back him. Cubs are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and 8-0 in Zambrano's last 8 starts against a team with a losing record. Even if this one goes to the bullpens, the Cubs have a substantial advantage.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
0
as always bro!!! LETS GET IT 
(1 unit only) I figured the Mariners are due to lose one and the Red Sox are much better than they've shown so far this season. Boston is much better with Ellsbury hitting leadoff. I have Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie on my fantasy team, The matchup ratings have Ellsbury is 4/5 stars, Lowrie 3/5, and Adrian Gonzalez 2/5. It says "Vargas typically struggles against hitters like Ellsbury" 
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