Posted:
#51
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Bodio's MLB Fri 04/29
Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo:
just curious, you ever change your plays based on lineups?
Nope. I look at overall hitting by each team, so my assumption is if someone is out, then a good-hitting team should have someone serviceable enough in their spot. Either way, books know if there is a potential for someone to sit out so that is already factored in the odds. If it's a day off the game, unexpected benching, well, then I'll either end up with better odds or worse odds on that particular play, but in the long-run it will average out to a net gain/loss of ZERO
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Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by jdukes0004:
What are your thoughts on SF giants RL.? Bounce back game for tim Linecum or is first five innings a better bet for giants? Why did you stay away from this game?
What are your thoughts on SF giants RL.? Bounce back game for tim Linecum or is first five innings a better bet for giants? Why did you stay away from this game?
Because Marquis does not warrant to be a +149 at home the way he's pitching this year. His advanced stats are excellent. That being said, I just can't fade Timmy in a 'bounce-back' spot like that, even though the Giants are extremely OVER-valued!
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Posted:
#61
#3: Milwaukee Brewers -133
I initially passed on this game, but my brother brought it to my attention a couple of hours ago and I decided to take a closer look. Well, I really like this play and will make it my 3rd wager of the day. This is a rematch between these 2 pitchers from their previous start. Neither performed really well with Myers going 6.1 inn; 10 hits, 5 ER's; 1 HR; 1 BB and 4K's while throwing 112 pitches. Marcum went 6 innings, 7 hits, 4 ER's, 2 HR's, 1 BB and 8 K's, throwing 96 pitches. While will today be a different outcome? Well, Marcum faced Houston's bats for the first time ever in that game. Sure they hit him, but in their life-times they only hae 31 AB's off him (very small sample size). What's interesting is that out of 12 hits, 7 came from Bill Hall, in only 10 AB's. The rest of the Astros are batting .238 off him in those limited AB's. In addition, Marcum had a terrible 1st inning in the last outing, allowing 3 of his 4 ER"s in that one, and giving up 4 hits in the inning. He settled down and gave up 1 ER's on 3 hits in the last 5 innings of that start. I expect his performance today to be similar to those 5 innings. Myers, on the other hand, has faced these Milwaukee batters for 129 career AB's -- much bigger sample size. Brewers hitters are batting .326 off him with .362 OBP and .874 OPS> There are a number of hitters that have fared well off hIm (not just one like is the case with Marcum): Weeks .267 BA/.313 OBP; Fielder .375 BA/.412 OBP (3 HR's / 7 RBI in 16 AB's); Betancourt .400 BA (5 AB's); Braun .263 BA with 1 HR in 19 AB's; Gomez .333 BA; McGehee .267 BA in 15 AB's...you get the point.
When looking at advanced stats Marcum's 3.38 FIP and 3.52 xFIP are much better than Myers' 4.76 / 4.44. In addition, Myers has a 1.38 HR/9 ratio compared to .91 HR/9 for Marcum. With Myers' .283 BABIp, 84% LOB% (ave is 70%), and -1.45 E-F (12th worst) I expect him to continue regressing. He has given up at least 1 HR in his last 4 starts and 32 hits in 25 innings in those. As Myers is regressing to the negative, I expect Marcum to actually improve over his first outing against the 'Stros. The result of this rematch will be very different from when these teams faced off 6 days ago.
I initially passed on this game, but my brother brought it to my attention a couple of hours ago and I decided to take a closer look. Well, I really like this play and will make it my 3rd wager of the day. This is a rematch between these 2 pitchers from their previous start. Neither performed really well with Myers going 6.1 inn; 10 hits, 5 ER's; 1 HR; 1 BB and 4K's while throwing 112 pitches. Marcum went 6 innings, 7 hits, 4 ER's, 2 HR's, 1 BB and 8 K's, throwing 96 pitches. While will today be a different outcome? Well, Marcum faced Houston's bats for the first time ever in that game. Sure they hit him, but in their life-times they only hae 31 AB's off him (very small sample size). What's interesting is that out of 12 hits, 7 came from Bill Hall, in only 10 AB's. The rest of the Astros are batting .238 off him in those limited AB's. In addition, Marcum had a terrible 1st inning in the last outing, allowing 3 of his 4 ER"s in that one, and giving up 4 hits in the inning. He settled down and gave up 1 ER's on 3 hits in the last 5 innings of that start. I expect his performance today to be similar to those 5 innings. Myers, on the other hand, has faced these Milwaukee batters for 129 career AB's -- much bigger sample size. Brewers hitters are batting .326 off him with .362 OBP and .874 OPS> There are a number of hitters that have fared well off hIm (not just one like is the case with Marcum): Weeks .267 BA/.313 OBP; Fielder .375 BA/.412 OBP (3 HR's / 7 RBI in 16 AB's); Betancourt .400 BA (5 AB's); Braun .263 BA with 1 HR in 19 AB's; Gomez .333 BA; McGehee .267 BA in 15 AB's...you get the point.
When looking at advanced stats Marcum's 3.38 FIP and 3.52 xFIP are much better than Myers' 4.76 / 4.44. In addition, Myers has a 1.38 HR/9 ratio compared to .91 HR/9 for Marcum. With Myers' .283 BABIp, 84% LOB% (ave is 70%), and -1.45 E-F (12th worst) I expect him to continue regressing. He has given up at least 1 HR in his last 4 starts and 32 hits in 25 innings in those. As Myers is regressing to the negative, I expect Marcum to actually improve over his first outing against the 'Stros. The result of this rematch will be very different from when these teams faced off 6 days ago.
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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Posted:
#66
bodio I always check your picks you are one of the good cappers on this site.in regards to the boston game there are a few things that stand out.assuming my research was complete vargas has never faced boston in boston .the green monster always seems to have an effect on players,usually an unsettling one to pitchers.also,vargas has given up a lot of hits this year,mostly at home which is a pitcher friendly park.i prefer the over in this game more than the side.continue the great work it is much appreciated.
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by obmarn:
bodio I always check your picks you are one of the good cappers on this site.in regards to the boston game there are a few things that stand out.assuming my research was complete vargas has never faced boston in boston .the green monster always seems to have an effect on players,usually an unsettling one to pitchers.also,vargas has given up a lot of hits this year,mostly at home which is a pitcher friendly park.i prefer the over in this game more than the side.continue the great work it is much appreciated.
bodio I always check your picks you are one of the good cappers on this site.in regards to the boston game there are a few things that stand out.assuming my research was complete vargas has never faced boston in boston .the green monster always seems to have an effect on players,usually an unsettling one to pitchers.also,vargas has given up a lot of hits this year,mostly at home which is a pitcher friendly park.i prefer the over in this game more than the side.continue the great work it is much appreciated.
Not a bad play
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Posted:
#68
Like I said, I agree with you that there's lots of value on Seattle at that price. I actually ended up placing a wager on them tonight after looking at the individual matchups.
However, I prefer not to play teams that have less than a 50% chance of winning. Despite the value, I'm still going to lose that bet more often than I would win it (if my numbers are right, as you said). I would rather play teams that have similar value (in this example +8% edge) who would win greater than half the time.
As for where I got the number, I wish I could say that I had a mathematical system, but unfortunately, I don't, lol. I check different sources for outcome predictions, analysis, etc. For this particular example (57% Sox) that came from Accuscore.
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
If Sox have 57% (how did you come up with that?) chance of winning than that means that Mariners have 43% chance of winning. At +185 odds, the % chance of winning is at 35%. For the sake of this argument, let's assume your #'s are correct (that's why I asked where you came up with those), therefore you can easily see how much 'VALUE' there are on the Mariners. If a team should win a matchup 43% of the time but the odds suggest 35%, you bet this type of a wager 100% of the time!!!
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