Posted:
#26
BOL! 
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Bodio's MLB Fri 04/29
Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by papagunnz:
hey bodio...great job man..your getting red hot again...i parlayed the lakers ML and the NYY for the odds the night before..and just like you said thats the smarter way since they both have to win for you to profit...
but with that being said and also outta curiosity, since you liked CC and the yanks so much against the wsox(which i dont blame you according to history) why didnt you try the -1 RL for better odds? just seems that if your willing to lay that kinda juice you must feel that its a very strong play,correct? so why not reduce that juice? iam sure if you did take the -1 and plugged it into your models the worst outcome you would see is a push!
maybe iam right or maybe iam wrong...i just feel that this would give you a better value, and worth a shot to bring to your attention..i wanna help you in any way i can!
hey bodio...great job man..your getting red hot again...i parlayed the lakers ML and the NYY for the odds the night before..and just like you said thats the smarter way since they both have to win for you to profit...
but with that being said and also outta curiosity, since you liked CC and the yanks so much against the wsox(which i dont blame you according to history) why didnt you try the -1 RL for better odds? just seems that if your willing to lay that kinda juice you must feel that its a very strong play,correct? so why not reduce that juice? iam sure if you did take the -1 and plugged it into your models the worst outcome you would see is a push!
maybe iam right or maybe iam wrong...i just feel that this would give you a better value, and worth a shot to bring to your attention..i wanna help you in any way i can!
I wasn't sure if the Yankees would bench any of their regulars for that one, so figured playing the ML was a safer play to make a profit on. Yeah -1, probably would have been the right play as well..
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Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by dk3:
Bodio, I definitely agree that there's value on the Mariners tonight. I was thinking of laying off the game though, because the Sox still have ~57% chance of winning. But I haven't done my research yet on the individual matchups. Your write-up has me leaning towards pulling the trigger on the Mariners though. We shall see tonight. GL!
Bodio, I definitely agree that there's value on the Mariners tonight. I was thinking of laying off the game though, because the Sox still have ~57% chance of winning. But I haven't done my research yet on the individual matchups. Your write-up has me leaning towards pulling the trigger on the Mariners though. We shall see tonight. GL!
If Sox have 57% (how did you come up with that?) chance of winning than that means that Mariners have 43% chance of winning. At +185 odds, the % chance of winning is at 35%. For the sake of this argument, let's assume your #'s are correct (that's why I asked where you came up with those), therefore you can easily see how much 'VALUE' there are on the Mariners. If a team should win a matchup 43% of the time but the odds suggest 35%, you bet this type of a wager 100% of the time!!!
0
Posted:
#39
Vargas on the road is dangerous as heck especially in Fenway .....remember Vargas is not a lefty that can dominate lefties as he does not have much of a slider to neutralize them. In fact he prefers to face righties as his main pitch is the changeup which is why he is good at home because fly balls die in Safeco and bound to fly out in Fenway in addition he struggles against lefties as the changeup is more effective against the opposite side of the plate.
0
Posted:
#40
Seattle pick I understand it's great value. Just the Sox are playing well right now and are a hot team and @ home they normally get the job done so I'll lay off that one...and I'm with you on the CHI pick love this spot for them after gettting str8 rocked last night they should come out ready to save some face. Another one I was looking at is the O9 in the yankees game...both teams are hot(batting wise) and just think they score alot of runs so this O could happen easily if either team gets on a roll. BOL to you all especially you Bodio
0
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by fedex11204:
Vargas on the road is dangerous as heck especially in Fenway .....remember Vargas is not a lefty that can dominate lefties as he does not have much of a slider to neutralize them. In fact he prefers to face righties as his main pitch is the changeup which is why he is good at home because fly balls die in Safeco and bound to fly out in Fenway in addition he struggles against lefties as the changeup is more effective against the opposite side of the plate.
Vargas on the road is dangerous as heck especially in Fenway .....remember Vargas is not a lefty that can dominate lefties as he does not have much of a slider to neutralize them. In fact he prefers to face righties as his main pitch is the changeup which is why he is good at home because fly balls die in Safeco and bound to fly out in Fenway in addition he struggles against lefties as the changeup is more effective against the opposite side of the plate.
Gonzalez, Crawford, Ortiz, and Ellsbury are 3 for 21 off Vargas in their life-time. Great info by the way. thank you
Either way, Mariners are way UNDER-valued in this one. GL buddy
0
Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by GIMMETHEPOINTS:
Seattle pick I understand it's great value. Just the Sox are playing well right now and are a hot team and @ home they normally get the job done so I'll lay off that one...and I'm with you on the CHI pick love this spot for them after gettting str8 rocked last night they should come out ready to save some face. Another one I was looking at is the O9 in the yankees game...both teams are hot(batting wise) and just think they score alot of runs so this O could happen easily if either team gets on a roll. BOL to you all especially you Bodio
Seattle pick I understand it's great value. Just the Sox are playing well right now and are a hot team and @ home they normally get the job done so I'll lay off that one...and I'm with you on the CHI pick love this spot for them after gettting str8 rocked last night they should come out ready to save some face. Another one I was looking at is the O9 in the yankees game...both teams are hot(batting wise) and just think they score alot of runs so this O could happen easily if either team gets on a roll. BOL to you all especially you Bodio
Both Romero and Garcia are pitching really well right now. I'd lean UNDER in that one
0
Posted:
#49
Matzuzaka (sp) owes me one....I played him earlier in the yr against the Rays when they were struggling hitting themselves let alone a baseball. Well he promptly gave up 7 or 8 runs by the 3rd or 4th...I was vomiting while watching him get shelled. So the next time out I play against him, as he's facing the Jays now with that powerful line-up and Bostons offense not doing much. Well he promptly pitches lights out and once again i'm hovering over the toilet while watching this puke of a pitcher cost me $ again...I'm fading this guy as he has been regressing for quite some time imo. His 2 straight good outtings w/ 9 k's in the last gm actually makes me feel better about this play, as i believe he is due to come back down to earth. I just hope I picked the right spot this time. The value is to good to pass up. Good Luck Bodio and thanks for sharing
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