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Bob's MLB Thursday *** 4.16.15 ***

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MLB 2015 --- Overall
YTD: 24-19-1 (56%) *** +6.99% Return on Risk ***
ML: 18-13 (58%)
F5: 0-1-0 (0%)
RL: 0-0-1 (0%)
O/U: 6-4-0 (60%)
Parlays: 0-1-0 (0%)
Starting / Current Bankroll: $5,216 / $5,386.78 (+170.78, +3.27%)

MLB 2015 --- Picks of the Day
YTD: 7-7-1 (50%) *** -3.85% Return on Risk ***
ML: 4-7 (40%)
F5: 0-0-0 (0%)
RL: 0-0-1 (0%)
O/U: 3-0-0 (100%)

MLB 2014
Overall: 826-685-112 (55%) *** +4.13% Return on Risk ***
PODs: 121-72-16 (63%) *** +16.60% Return on Risk ***

Wednesday's Results
Record: 4-1-0 (80%)
Risked: 6.00% of Bankroll ($314) --- WA line of -108
Profit / Return on Risk: +$141.44 / +45.04%
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102105915

Thursday's Card

Kansas City Royals (Vargas) FG, -114 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll
To be clear, I am not chasing the Royals' streak here. They are a considerably better team and I am going to take my chances on them taking game 3 behind Vargas. I capped this game at -140 for the Royals. Well worth the risk at this price.

Milwaukee Brewers (Fiers) FG, +138 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

Milwaukee (Fiers) / St. Louis (Lackey) Under 7.5 FG, -110 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

I might bite on Hamels F5 tomorrow if I can get a line of +120 or better. I was also looking at the Royals/Twins Under (8.5).

Good luck guys!
 
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Posted: #2
Good luck buddy. You'll get those POD rolling. Still with Ya. 
 
All-Star
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Posted: #3
Like Fiers to get a win tomorrow......,,gonna look into Vargas....definitely better pitcher than Milone..........nice day today....
 
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Posted: #4
G6
 on ROYALS too


 
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Posted: #5
like KC at -120. good price

good value on brew crew too

GL BoB 
 
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Legend
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Posted: #8
Good luck BOB!
 
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Keep it up man 
 
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Keep up the good work B.O.B



Jason Vargas (2014): Home: 6.7 K/BB Away: 2.63 K/BB Night: 3.55 K/BB Day: 1.97 K/BB
Day game at Min. Any concerns about these stats or do you think he's significantly better than Milone and is playing behind a superior offense? 
 
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GL
 
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Good luck today B.O.B.
 
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Posted: #14
On the a Royals 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by alldub:

Good luck buddy. You'll get those POD rolling. Still with Ya. 


Yeah, the moneyline PODs havent been good to me this year. On the moneyline:

Regular Plays - 14-6 (70%)
PODs - 4-7 (36%)

Worst part is that the WA lines are similar for both RPs and PODs. I expect RPs hit rate to come down and PODs hit rate to increase (of course).

Last year, I hit like 68% on ML PODs (higher WA line though).

Time to get hot w/ the PODs!
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by DreamKillas:

Keep up the good work B.O.B



Jason Vargas (2014): Home: 6.7 K/BB Away: 2.63 K/BB Night: 3.55 K/BB Day: 1.97 K/BB
Day game at Min. Any concerns about these stats or do you think he's significantly better than Milone and is playing behind a superior offense? 


I would be more worried about Milone's 12+ ERA vs. the Royals last year!

All joking aside, the Royals are a much better team and the Vargas is the better pitcher
 
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Posted: #17
GL BoB...was thinking of a large wager on the Royals!!


 
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Posted: #18
Like the brew crew today as well 
 
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Posted: #19
Hi BoB,

Just curious what you mean by "WA" wagers?

GL today, too
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by GraysAlmanac:

Hi BoB,

Just curious what you mean by "WA" wagers?

GL today, too


WA = weighted average

for example, if I wagered evenly on -150 and -120 plays then my WA line  (on the card) would be -135
 
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Got ya 
 
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Thursday's Card *** final***

Kansas City Royals (Vargas) FG, -114 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

Milwaukee Brewers (Fiers) FG, +138 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

Philadelphia Phillies (Hamels) F5, +120 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

Milwaukee (Fiers) / St. Louis (Lackey) Under 7.5 FG, -110 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

Small Parlay
Phillies/Nationals Under 7.5 (-185) & Diamondbacks/Giants Under 7 (-154), +154 --- Risk 0.50% of Bankroll
 
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Posted: #23
Good luck BOB      
 
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Posted: #24
Just found you & Tins on Royals this afternoon, I really like phillies (F5) Good luck buddy.
Everyday above ground is a good day - 83
 
 
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Posted: #25
7.5 n 7? Those ate some generous lines. I can only find 6.5 for both games.
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