Posted:
#1
YTD: 1-0 +4.00 Units
Picked up a quick and painless win with the Astros TT Over 3.5 yesterday. It's always nice to cash less than 4 innings in and enjoy the rest of the evening 
Been enjoying a nice profitable baseball season thus far but talk is cheap. I will start keeping tabs now w/ an updated tally so let's see how this goes. Plays range anywhere from 3 to 5 units. Enough of that:
Kansas City Royals First 5 Innings -116 3units
Records wise, here we have 2 of the worst teams in the majors and yet they are seemingly headed in the opposite direction. The Twins have lost 6 in a row and now own the league's worst record. Minnesota's starting ERA is a major league worst 7.01. No, that is not a typo. KC has been in the limelight because of their horrendous homestand in which they could not win a single game out of 10 tries. What's the best possible remedy? Going on the road where there is no expectations after their horrific start at home. They have now won 3 in a row and believe it or not, own a 6-4 road record despite a 6-14 overall record.
I'm not going to lie, a significant reason for this bet is a fade of Jason Marquis. This guy has been on my auto fade list for years and has made me a nice chunk of change in the process. However, I really like Bruce Chen in this spot and the numbers seem to support backing him, at least for a 1st 5 wager.
Chen comes in with a 2.52 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP on the season. The dude has just been given next to nothing in run support which is why he sports an 0-2 record and why KC has lost all 4 of his starts this season. However his recent numbers vs. Minny have been tremendous. In his last 2 starts against them last September, he went 8 innings a piece and his numbers through those 16 IP were, 10 hits, 3 walks and 12K's but most importantly, ZERO runs. In 4 starts vs the Twins last year, he sported a 2.39 ERA. Solid.
So why 1st 5? Because I simply have no faith in the Royals bullpen. They endured several injuries in the pen early on and Broxton is a fat turd. Even though he had the save last night, this guy completely has it in him to walk the bases loaded. Chen has 15 straight starts of at least 5 innings or more so we know he should at least keep us in the game. But what's most interesting to note is that despite a 3-7 record in its last 10 games, KC is actually 6-2-2 in the 1st 5 innings of those same games. They're 0-4 in Chen's starts this year, but only have 1 true loss in those games in the 1st 5 innings (along with 3 pushes). So the Royals are always in it (if not winning) to start. They've just clearly demonstrated the inability to finish.
I don't see Chen giving up more than 1-2 runs in the 1st 5 today. Are you telling me you would risk your hard earned cash on Marquis to give up either 1 or no runs in the first 5 innings of today's game? That's what I think it will take for this bet to lose. I see the Royals scoring at least 3 runs in the first half of this game. At worst I think we might push here. Of course, there are no guaranties but I think if we lose this bet, it won't be close; ie. Chen just doesn't have his stuff to begin with and puts up a 4 spot early. But KC's bats are heating up and they're starting to gain confidence since they aren't feeling the pressures of playing at home. Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs a LH starter and 2-14 in their last 16 games vs a pitcher with less than a 1.15 WHIP. You may not like the Royals (heck, I don't)..... but you gotta love Jason Marquis. Best of luck with whatever you choose 
0
LOOK AT OVER 9.5 IN METS/COLO GAME--MY BIG POD--
Hot Forum Topics
