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Beat the sweep system

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Posted: #326
Looking at this system, it seems to me that betting on all home teams in game 2 that lost game 1 of the series and then again in Game 3 if they lose Game 2 would yield a higher winning % based on the premise that teams want to avoid getting swept and play better to "beat the sweep".

It seems like their chance of winning game 2 after losing game 1 would be higher on a system like this and you avoid the situations like with the Washington Nationals, since you only lose 2 bets.

Has anyone considered how that would work?
 
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Posted: #327
Quote Originally Posted by In2it:

Looking at this system, it seems to me that betting on all home teams in game 2 that lost game 1 of the series and then again in Game 3 if they lose Game 2 would yield a higher winning % based on the premise that teams want to avoid getting swept and play better to "beat the sweep".It seems like their chance of winning game 2 after losing game 1 would be higher on a system like this and you avoid the situations like with the Washington Nationals, since you only lose 2 bets.Has anyone considered how that would work?

No, you miss too many game 1 wins.
 
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Posted: #328
Game 1 Win:
Chi-w $105 to win $100
Game 1 loses:
WASH $240 to win $100
MIN $130 to win $100
HOU $120 to win $100
COL $85 to win $99

Chasing game 2s:
Min - $265 to win $230
Nationals - $748 to win $340
COl -
 
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Posted: #329
Game 1 Win:
Chi-w $105 to win $100
Game 1 loses:
WASH $240 to win $100
MIN $130 to win $100
HOU $120 to win $100
COL $85 to win $99

Chasing game 2s:
Min - $265 to win $230
Nationals - $748 to win $340
COL -
 
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Posted: #330
****Col -$174 to win $174
 
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Posted: #331
[Quote: Originally Posted by Boston_Brad]

Sorry for the incomplete post. Was a little drunk last night.

Game 1 Win:
Chi-w $105 to win $100

Game 1 losses:
WASH $240 to win $100
MIN $130 to win $100
HOU $120 to win $100
COL $85 to win $99

Chasing game 2s:
Min - $265 to win $230
Nationals - $748 to win $340
COL - $187 to win $187
HOU - (no line yet) to win $220

Today's new plays.
AZ@DET (2 game series), no
TB@TOR, yes
OAK@MIA (2 game series), no
KC@SF (2 game series), no
MIL@STL (4 game series, double header today) ?
LAD@CLE ?

Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #332
Tough night, WAS continues to suck.

TB/TOR is a 2 game series as well i think. Only adding LAD to my series chase. Need a few of these to come in today!
 
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Posted: #333
Yup, 2 gamer for TB@TOR makes it a no play. I'm steering clear of LAD. I like your reasoning, but it strays from the system and I'm going back to the basics (didn't stray the first few weeks following this and things went a lot smoother).
 
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Posted: #334
I've decided to add MIL to my chase
.571 away record
.516 overall
4 game series
If lose afternoon game, can double tonight with the rest of my game 2s. BOL tonight fellas. I feel good about WASH&COL
 
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Posted: #335
Quote Originally Posted by Big_Tone21:


No, you miss too many game 1 wins.

Sure looks like my suggested plan would have worked well last night. Only one game 1 win.  I think I will jump in now and see how it works for me.
 
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Posted: #336
Quote Originally Posted by In2it:


Sure looks like my suggested plan would have worked well last night. Only one game 1 win.  I think I will jump in now and see how it works for me.

Pretty sure since i've been tracking GM 1's have hit at over 50%. Your suggested plan should get it's own thread.
 
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Posted: #337
Jeez- WAS went from -210 this morning to -232 already. Public all over WAS, not sure I like that.

I'll take a look at MIL - might be worth a shot. 
 
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Posted: #338
Quote Originally Posted by Big_Tone21:

Jeez- WAS went from -210 this morning to -232 already. Public all over WAS, not sure I like that.

I'll take a look at MIL - might be worth a shot. 

Going into last night Atlanta was 2-22 in the last 24 meetings in Washington.  Not hard to understand why they got pounded yesterday with Public Money and again today.  Problem is Washington has no bull-pen.  Without Scherzer or Strasburg on the mound, they are a dangerous play right now.  BOL!
 
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Posted: #339
Quote Originally Posted by Big_Tone21:

Jeez- WAS went from -210 this morning to -232 already. Public all over WAS, not sure I like that.I'll take a look at MIL - might be worth a shot.


Don't sweat the Nats. We'll get'em today.

Another point for me with taking MIL for the early game 1, if they win, I can jump on the Kershaw train with LAD. If MIL loses and I have to chase game 2, no LAD for me.
 
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Posted: #340
Quote Originally Posted by In2it:

Quote Originally Posted by Big_Tone21:

No, you miss too many game 1 wins.
Sure looks like my suggested plan would have worked well last night. Only one game 1 win.  I think I will jump in now and see how it works for me.

Quote Originally Posted by Big_Tone21:

Jeez- WAS went from -210 this morning to -232 already. Public all over WAS, not sure I like that.I'll take a look at MIL - might be worth a shot.


I still have them at -210 in my book. (Wagershack.com)
 
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Posted: #341
Quote Originally Posted by In2it:


Sure looks like my suggested plan would have worked well last night. Only one game 1 win.  I think I will jump in now and see how it works for me.


sure, if you cherry pick the one or two to fit your suggestion. 

see post #193 of this thread. 

to update those numbers, even with last night's 1-5 (for me) game 1 in series (in this system) are now at 36-33.  with only one of those series ending in a loss (the TX@WAS last weekend).  so you would have missed out on 36u to help more than cover that loss.  skipping game 1 in a series sweep system GREATLY reduces your potential profitability b/c of the probability of a loss on occasion. 
 
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Posted: #342
i think i'm going with STL in this one.
 
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Posted: #343
maybe.  going to chew on it for an hour or two.  then make a decision closer to game time.
 
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Posted: #344
Quote Originally Posted by therealdutch:

i think i'm going with STL in this one.

With STL under .500 overall and only 2 games above .500 at home, I like mike chances with MIL slightly better. BOL regardless Dutch!
 
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Posted: #345
yeah, in the few min since posting that i came across the pitching changes for the game.  MIL is a value play here IMO.  moved Nelson to game 2 against and called up woodruff for game 1.
 
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Posted: #346
on with the Brew Crew.
 
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Posted: #347
1st 2 bets were nullified as both starting pitchers changed after I placed the bet. First with Nelson, and then with Woodruff.

Just took them live +150. $67 to win $100. Let's go brew crew!
 
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Posted: #348
Quote Originally Posted by Boston_Brad:

Quote Originally Posted by Boston_Brad:



Sorry for the incomplete post. Was a little drunk last night.

Game 1 Win:
Chi-w $105 to win $100

Game 1 losses:
WASH $240 to win $100
MIN $130 to win $100
HOU $120 to win $100
COL $85 to win $99
MIL $67 to win $100

Chasing game 2s:
Min - $265 to win $230
Nationals - $748 to win $340
COL - $187 to win $187
HOU - $400 to win $220 *UPDATE
MIL - $158 to win $167 *UPDATE

Big night tonight!
 
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Posted: #349
Quote Originally Posted by Boston_Brad:

Quote Originally Posted by Boston_Brad:

Quote Originally Posted by Boston_Brad:

Sorry for the incomplete post. Was a little drunk last night. Game 1 Win:Chi-w $105 to win $100Game 1 losses:WASH $240 to win $100MIN $130 to win $100HOU $120 to win $100COL $85 to win $99MIL $67 to win $100Chasing game 2s:Min - $265 to win $230Nationals - $748 to win $340 COL - $187 to win $187HOU - $400 to win $220 *UPDATEMIL - $158 to win $167 *UPDATE
Big night tonight!


Good night!

Cashed:
Nats game 2
Twins game 2
Brewer game 2

Going to chase game 3s with COL and HOU.
 
 
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Posted: #350
HOU scares me tonight with their starter, but trust the system! 
COL has a decent chance today.

Both decent favorites - HOU has to be -150 based on home record and their bats.

Let's finish this one off!
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