let's bankem
I am laying off of texas it is not a close play but I am on Frisco and Frisco has nothing to do with official plays on here just my personal play Bol everyone
I am laying off of texas it is not a close play but I am on Frisco and Frisco has nothing to do with official plays on here just my personal play Bol everyone
Posted by kidd22 Quote Originally Posted by lopez021130: @kidd22 Texas is not official play , according Proffesor systemya I agree he was saying Detroit wasn’t a play Texas for me is falling on a close play , close plays for me are 10-0 or 11-0 however anyone wants to categorize philly some books had a+146 other +150 so the ones I have kept track of that fall short of a+150 are between +125 + +149 .... sorry to say i have not checked in for some time now... thanks for keeping up the thread ... and everyone
Posted by kidd22 Quote Originally Posted by lopez021130: @kidd22 Texas is not official play , according Proffesor systemya I agree he was saying Detroit wasn’t a play Texas for me is falling on a close play , close plays for me are 10-0 or 11-0 however anyone wants to categorize philly some books had a+146 other +150 so the ones I have kept track of that fall short of a+150 are between +125 + +149 .... sorry to say i have not checked in for some time now... thanks for keeping up the thread ... and everyone
@kidd22
I have always bet against the princess ending we all want. This happened by accident when I bet Minnesota +pts. I then found out at gametime, that they were retiring Lawrence Taylor's jersey #54 at halftime. Oh s***, I'm dead.
MINNESOTA WON 27-10!!!
@kidd22
I have always bet against the princess ending we all want. This happened by accident when I bet Minnesota +pts. I then found out at gametime, that they were retiring Lawrence Taylor's jersey #54 at halftime. Oh s***, I'm dead.
MINNESOTA WON 27-10!!!
So, turns out the Professor did include the Tigers as a system play on 6/17. He listed all the drought plays in his picks video the day after and I saw it in there. He offered it as one of his paid Lobster Bets rather than offer it for free, I guess. He also had the Diamondbacks listed for 6/14. I checked the line history and I only saw that one peg at +150 at Caesars for about 10 minutes in the early morning hours. There was some discussion here with it being one of the close plays, but I've reclassified it as an official play based on his list.
If anybody's interested, I put together a Google Sheet with all the system plays here and shared it. I also went through and ran the previous 4 years with these systems. Granted, mine could vary a bit from his official records since I only have one line of record in the historical data I have rather than several lines to compare, so it could have a few extra or missing plays, but still a pretty good check against the various systems mentioned in here.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10XLtsU5-Rh55zFfHFgQlD90Ufn9QBaDMK2A7UCH3keE/edit?usp=sharing
So, turns out the Professor did include the Tigers as a system play on 6/17. He listed all the drought plays in his picks video the day after and I saw it in there. He offered it as one of his paid Lobster Bets rather than offer it for free, I guess. He also had the Diamondbacks listed for 6/14. I checked the line history and I only saw that one peg at +150 at Caesars for about 10 minutes in the early morning hours. There was some discussion here with it being one of the close plays, but I've reclassified it as an official play based on his list.
If anybody's interested, I put together a Google Sheet with all the system plays here and shared it. I also went through and ran the previous 4 years with these systems. Granted, mine could vary a bit from his official records since I only have one line of record in the historical data I have rather than several lines to compare, so it could have a few extra or missing plays, but still a pretty good check against the various systems mentioned in here.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10XLtsU5-Rh55zFfHFgQlD90Ufn9QBaDMK2A7UCH3keE/edit?usp=sharing
@billdo75
Or somebody with data wanna check what the record is the last few years for team on a scoring drought (last 2 games with only 2 or less pts) + next game at home with -150 or lower odds. I would take the home team playing at home trying to get the offensive cranking against a weaker opponents. Like a reverse Prof MJ drought system.
@billdo75
Or somebody with data wanna check what the record is the last few years for team on a scoring drought (last 2 games with only 2 or less pts) + next game at home with -150 or lower odds. I would take the home team playing at home trying to get the offensive cranking against a weaker opponents. Like a reverse Prof MJ drought system.
This system you would have gone broke with the Yankees last 10 games
This system you would have gone broke with the Yankees last 10 games
Moving the line down further decreases the number of plays but bumps up the ROI. For example, when I use -200 as the cutoff and look at heavier favorites, the overall 11 year record is 78-20 with a +14% ROI. 8 years with good profit against 3 years on the flip side, but plays are scarce.
Is that 241-91 record you have over several years? And is that using the parameters provided by @ALEXSON or something else?
Moving the line down further decreases the number of plays but bumps up the ROI. For example, when I use -200 as the cutoff and look at heavier favorites, the overall 11 year record is 78-20 with a +14% ROI. 8 years with good profit against 3 years on the flip side, but plays are scarce.
Is that 241-91 record you have over several years? And is that using the parameters provided by @ALEXSON or something else?
Correction. The current 2025 record for the system @ALEXSON asked about is 12-8, -9% ROI. I had been doing all my calcs for 2025 in Exce but I must've been missing something from my formula. I decided to move it all into the database to make things easier. And I see the Yankees being the play 3 times in that series against the Angels with them finally getting a win on that 3rd play, the 4th in that series. I've listed the games below if anybody wants to verify.
3/30/2025 SEA -185 W 2-1 (L 2-4 vs ATH 3/29, L 0-7 vs ATH 3/28)
4/2/2025 HOU -170 L 3-6 (L 1-3 vs SFG 4/01, L 2-7 vs SFG 3/31)
4/9/2025 SFG -150 W 8-6 (L 0-1 vs CIN 4/08, L 0-2 vs CIN 4/07)
4/14/2025 PIT -190 W 10-3 (L 0-4 vs CIN 4/13, L 2-5 vs CIN 4/12)
4/14/2025 LAD -350 W 5-3 (L 2-4 vs CHC 4/13, L 0-16 vs CHC 4/12)
4/17/2025 DET -155 W 6-1 (L 1-5 vs MIL 4/16, L 0-5 vs MIL 4/15)
4/26/2025 SDP -150 L 1-4 (L 0-1 vs TBR 4/25, L 0-6 vs DET 4/23)
4/29/2025 TEX -200 W 15-2 (L 1-2 vs ATH 4/28, L 2-3 vs SFG 4/27)
5/1/2025 TBR -160 L 2-8 (L 0-3 vs KCR 4/30, L 1-3 vs KCR 4/29)
5/4/2025 TEX -180 W 8-1 (L 1-2 vs SEA 5/03, L 1-13 vs SEA 5/02)
5/11/2025 WSN -150 L 1-6 (L 2-4 vs STL 5/10, L 0-10 vs STL 5/09)
5/14/2025 CIN -200 L 2-4 (L 1-5 vs CHW 5/13, L 0-6 vs HOU 5/11)
5/15/2025 CIN -235 W 7-1 (L 2-4 vs CHW 5/14, L 1-5 vs CHW 5/13)
6/5/2025 SEA -155 L 3-4 (L 2-3 vs BAL 6/04, L 1-5 vs BAL 6/03)
6/9/2025 ARI -170 W 8-4 (L 2-4 vs CIN 6/08, L 1-13 vs CIN 6/07)
6/11/2025 HOU -175 W 10-2 (L 2-4 vs CHW 6/10, L 2-4 vs CLE 6/08)
6/17/2025 NYY -250 L 0-4 (L 0-1 vs LAA 6/16, L 0-2 vs BOS 6/15)
6/18/2025 NYY -275 L 2-3 (L 0-4 vs LAA 6/17, L 0-1 vs LAA 6/16)
6/19/2025 NYY -285 W 7-3 (L 2-3 vs LAA 6/18, L 0-4 vs LAA 6/17)
6/19/2025 SFG -185 W 2-1 (L 2-4 vs CLE 6/18, L 2-3 vs CLE 6/17)
Correction. The current 2025 record for the system @ALEXSON asked about is 12-8, -9% ROI. I had been doing all my calcs for 2025 in Exce but I must've been missing something from my formula. I decided to move it all into the database to make things easier. And I see the Yankees being the play 3 times in that series against the Angels with them finally getting a win on that 3rd play, the 4th in that series. I've listed the games below if anybody wants to verify.
3/30/2025 SEA -185 W 2-1 (L 2-4 vs ATH 3/29, L 0-7 vs ATH 3/28)
4/2/2025 HOU -170 L 3-6 (L 1-3 vs SFG 4/01, L 2-7 vs SFG 3/31)
4/9/2025 SFG -150 W 8-6 (L 0-1 vs CIN 4/08, L 0-2 vs CIN 4/07)
4/14/2025 PIT -190 W 10-3 (L 0-4 vs CIN 4/13, L 2-5 vs CIN 4/12)
4/14/2025 LAD -350 W 5-3 (L 2-4 vs CHC 4/13, L 0-16 vs CHC 4/12)
4/17/2025 DET -155 W 6-1 (L 1-5 vs MIL 4/16, L 0-5 vs MIL 4/15)
4/26/2025 SDP -150 L 1-4 (L 0-1 vs TBR 4/25, L 0-6 vs DET 4/23)
4/29/2025 TEX -200 W 15-2 (L 1-2 vs ATH 4/28, L 2-3 vs SFG 4/27)
5/1/2025 TBR -160 L 2-8 (L 0-3 vs KCR 4/30, L 1-3 vs KCR 4/29)
5/4/2025 TEX -180 W 8-1 (L 1-2 vs SEA 5/03, L 1-13 vs SEA 5/02)
5/11/2025 WSN -150 L 1-6 (L 2-4 vs STL 5/10, L 0-10 vs STL 5/09)
5/14/2025 CIN -200 L 2-4 (L 1-5 vs CHW 5/13, L 0-6 vs HOU 5/11)
5/15/2025 CIN -235 W 7-1 (L 2-4 vs CHW 5/14, L 1-5 vs CHW 5/13)
6/5/2025 SEA -155 L 3-4 (L 2-3 vs BAL 6/04, L 1-5 vs BAL 6/03)
6/9/2025 ARI -170 W 8-4 (L 2-4 vs CIN 6/08, L 1-13 vs CIN 6/07)
6/11/2025 HOU -175 W 10-2 (L 2-4 vs CHW 6/10, L 2-4 vs CLE 6/08)
6/17/2025 NYY -250 L 0-4 (L 0-1 vs LAA 6/16, L 0-2 vs BOS 6/15)
6/18/2025 NYY -275 L 2-3 (L 0-4 vs LAA 6/17, L 0-1 vs LAA 6/16)
6/19/2025 NYY -285 W 7-3 (L 2-3 vs LAA 6/18, L 0-4 vs LAA 6/17)
6/19/2025 SFG -185 W 2-1 (L 2-4 vs CLE 6/18, L 2-3 vs CLE 6/17)
@billdo75
Thanks for checking. The Yankees did less it up. Something about the Yankees and Dodgers in a big market messing with their games. Is there a way to get a complete data dump of the current and previous seasons of all games? Like to do some statistical analysis.
@billdo75
Thanks for checking. The Yankees did less it up. Something about the Yankees and Dodgers in a big market messing with their games. Is there a way to get a complete data dump of the current and previous seasons of all games? Like to do some statistical analysis.
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