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Another Fine Day In Gambling Land

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Posted: #26
Key, you never answered my post, do you ever take heavy favorites? I've only seen dogs or favorites with -120 and below
 
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Posted: #27
Bump this up for my man key!!
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by onlybeststuff:

Key, you never answered my post, do you ever take heavy favorites? I've only seen dogs or favorites with -120 and below
Once in a while I take a heavy favorite but they require an enormous win probability and then still some margin for profit. In my opinion the best favorites are like Oakland over the weekend, a highly probable winner that does not have to lay much juice because they are playing an over-inflated public team like the Red Sox.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #29
You guys see what I mean about Porcello's luck? Two perfect plays at the plate in the same inning. Back to Back! Anyway JEG you're up one. 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #30
BOL
 
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Posted: #31
Oh how I love fireworks....... and from reading yesterdays thread there seemed to be a lot of them.  The week has started off strange with the games.  None seemed to start or finish the way i would expect them to but that is life.  Everything has a balance.  Today's clear the smoke and make money plays:

POD

Phillies F5 +101

There is no question Dickey is having a Cy Young Award type of year.  Best performance so far in the NL and him making the all star game is a reflection of it.  But something other than my stats, patterns, theories, formulas, charts and whatever else people use to make a pick, tells me that this is going to be a rough game for him.

also taking:

Padres F5 +118

BOL to all today
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Once in a while I take a heavy favorite but they require an enormous win probability and then still some margin for profit. In my opinion the best favorites are like Oakland over the weekend, a highly probable winner that does not have to lay much juice because they are playing an over-inflated public team like the Red Sox.


hey take it easy on the Red Sox, how about you substitute that with the over rated Yankees
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by ELGALLO:

BOL TODAY KEY AND JEG AND BDC

HAVE A VERY PROFITABLE DAY   


Mahalo nui loa, mucho gracias
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:



hey take it easy on the Red Sox, how about you substitute that with the over rated Yankees
Just TOOK the Yankees yesterday (). I will take the Red Sox if they ever get in a position of being undervalued, but that is rare.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #35
Hey, bd_c, you were calling some Grand Salamis last year and doing pretty good if I remember right. What do you think of mine, under 117.5, today?  
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Hey, bd_c, you were calling some Grand Salamis last year and doing pretty good if I remember right. What do you think of mine, under 117.5, today?  


The way these last 2 days have gone with the high scoring, I would say it's the smartest bet of the day.  Only 2 games i see going over today is Toronto and Cardinals.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:



The way these last 2 days have gone with the high scoring, I would say it's the smartest bet of the day.  Only 2 games i see going over today is Toronto and Cardinals.
I would make that Pittsburgh and the Cardinals, but the point is the same, as many as 9 or 10 games are threatened with unders.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #38

Grand Salami UNDER 117.5, -110

I am entirely serious about this. My program today calls for outstanding pitching and weak offense. I am often asked about prop bets but my time just doesn’t permit the amount of attention they need. Today it hit me as I was doing all the other shit that the pitching looked pretty darn good and the offenses not so much. With three different formulas involved the top end I see is 113, so with two others around 100, why not pull the trigger?






Good Start for that ^^^

 
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Posted: #39
not sure why the quote thing didn't work
 
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Posted: #40
Hey Key the roof was closed in Ari.yesterday with SD playing them,that ended 8-6 SD against Kennedy which you know,now I dont know the last time the Dodgers scored 8 runs,but the point being runs can be scored with roof closed.
 
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Posted: #41
Key do you have any thoughts on the Phils/Mets total? The over is at 7 +102. I really like this play,but taking the ML and total on the same game. 

GL today
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by FadeTheT:

Key do you have any thoughts on the Phils/Mets total? The over is at 7 +102. I really like this play,but taking the ML and total on the same game. 

GL today
I think that one is a tossup so I wouldn't go against the sharps that have laid the money to put the juice on the under, but really no solid opinion either way.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #43
I would love to see the phillies smack RA around
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

Hey Key the roof was closed in Ari.yesterday with SD playing them,that ended 8-6 SD against Kennedy which you know,now I dont know the last time the Dodgers scored 8 runs,but the point being runs can be scored with roof closed.
Yeah, buddy, my personal opinion is that the roof open or closed makes little difference but a lot of guys like that stuff and would come back and bug me about it, so I just sort of got that out of the way early. I have seen a lot of games at Chase and have seen very few balls on either side of the fence that the roof open or closed could make the difference. I think it is just a cult thing that caught on. Frankly, if I go to a game this time of year they better damn well have the roof closed!!!
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #45
Well Minn.bullpen just shit the bed big,but how is it Minn.had 14 hits and only 3 runs,thats where it was lost,Burnett just ended it quick,why didnt Perkins come in to pitch to Fielder also,just things to ponder,5 inning bet would of won,but night before its not up yet.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:



Mahalo nui loa, "mucho" gracias

De Nada.
btw its "muchas",,,, little spanish lesson,

Lets kill it today bro, cheers,,, also a beer Fan.
 
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Posted: #47
Same old shit, Jegermeister. Porcello gets beat head to head by his opponent but the bullpen and offense bail him out. You just can't overcome this guy's luck. Stop f___ng with him.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by ELGALLO:


De Nada.
btw its "muchas",,,, little spanish lesson,

Lets kill it today bro, cheers,,, also a beer Fan.
Do you think you could look after bd_c on Cinco de Mayo for us? He thinks it is a Hawaiian Holiday and usually has a long recovery period after.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Do you think you could look after bd_c on Cinco de Mayo for us? He thinks it is a Hawaiian Holiday and usually has a long recovery period after.

Thanks Key, u got my longest  laugh of the week i may say took me more  than a minute to stop, YES, of course i can help a Hawaiian friend with the 5 de Mayo celebration. Maybe help him  to manage  the hangover slowly day by day, a guy  shouldnt stop drinking in just one day, it could be an ugly hangover he he he.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Porcello was horrible....they should have been crushed...
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