If a normal distribution of a non-correllated parlay looks like this:
WW = 25%, WL = 50%, LL = 25%
A correllated parlay might look something like:
WW = 33.3%, WL = 33.3%, LL = 33.3%
When you assign values to those distributions with a payout of 3-1 on your parlay it becomes:
Non - correllated EV = 0
Correllated EV = every 3 times you bet this bet you will profit 1 unit (you will win once out of every three bets with a payout of 3-1)
|
Action-Reverse Rules |
^list |
| Payouts for a $100 2-Play Action-Reverse wager based on ‘$110 to win $100’ plays: | |||
| Number of Wins |
Number of Pushes |
Number of Losses |
Win or Loss Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 0 | Win $400 |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | Win $200 |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | No Action |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | Lose $120 |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | Lose $220 |
| 0 | 0 | 2 | Lose $220 |
| Payouts for a $100 3-Play Action-Reverse wager based on ‘$110 to win $100’ plays: | |||
| Number of Wins |
Number of Pushes |
Number of Losses |
Win or Loss Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0 | 0 | Win $1200 |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | Win $800 |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | Win $400 |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | Win $160 |
| 0 | 3 | 0 | No Action |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Lose $140 |
| 0 | 2 | 1 | Lose $440 |
| 1 | 0 | 2 | Lose $460 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | Lose $660 |
| 0 | 0 | 3 | Lose $660 |
Correlated parlay means the teams or picks inside that parlay are not independent - but somewhat dependent.
Example:
A total and side on the same game in a situation where you can say - with at least a little bit of confidence - "if team A wins it will go over, and if team B it will go under".
OR
In mlb - if they let you - you could bet a team -2.5 runs and the over, because that team covering by 2.5 runs and going under is less likely - and the opposite of that is also true - if you could bet the +2.5 and the under.
OR
Say the yankees season over under is 100 wins. The odds on them winning their division is 2-1. If they win 100 games, the chances are good that they will also win their division, and the opposite is also true.
Those are correllated parlays.
Correlated parlay means the teams or picks inside that parlay are not independent - but somewhat dependent.
Example:
A total and side on the same game in a situation where you can say - with at least a little bit of confidence - "if team A wins it will go over, and if team B it will go under".
OR
In mlb - if they let you - you could bet a team -2.5 runs and the over, because that team covering by 2.5 runs and going under is less likely - and the opposite of that is also true - if you could bet the +2.5 and the under.
OR
Say the yankees season over under is 100 wins. The odds on them winning their division is 2-1. If they win 100 games, the chances are good that they will also win their division, and the opposite is also true.
Those are correllated parlays.
great explantion, i understand why a parlay is correlated, but i was having some trouble getting my head around the concept of improved handicapping with such parlays until reading this post.
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