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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    A line that makes no sense

    123 Next Last»
    KeyElement
    Chasin
    MITM
    cincyquencher
    soccergal
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    KeyElement
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 7:47 AM ET #1

    They will probably wake up and correct it, but my book and quite a few others have posted a total of 15 on the Giants/Padres game. Manaea/Musgrove vs. no big deal offenses? That makes no sense. The under could lose, but it is highly unlikely. I entered the under myself for a substantial play.

    Good luck if you can get it, cheers if your bookie pays off. clover an_cheers

    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    They will probably wake up and correct it, but my book and quite a few others have posted a total of 15 on the Giants/Padres game. Manaea/Musgrove vs. no big deal offenses? That makes no sense. The under could lose, but it is highly unlikely. I entered the under myself for a substantial play.

    Good luck if you can get it, cheers if your bookie pays off. clover an_cheers

     
    Chasin
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 7:50 AM ET #2

    @KeyElement

     I'm seeing O15 juiced on several of my books.  Strange line.

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    @KeyElement

     I'm seeing O15 juiced on several of my books.  Strange line.

     
    KeyElement
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 7:59 AM ET #3

    @Chasin

     I wasn't going to play that game, and I am sure the books will catch it and cancel, but I gave it a shot. If they keep it up there and have to pay on the over, I am done with gambling. There is no explanation for that line. 

    peace 

    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    @Chasin

     I wasn't going to play that game, and I am sure the books will catch it and cancel, but I gave it a shot. If they keep it up there and have to pay on the over, I am done with gambling. There is no explanation for that line. 

    peace 

     
    MITM
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:02 AM ET #4

    Bad line but it's at alot of books. 

    I guarantee u, all bets will be refunded on this and the line will go off about 8

     

    I didn't bother with this.

     

    Falcon Sports 

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    Bad line but it's at alot of books. 

    I guarantee u, all bets will be refunded on this and the line will go off about 8

     

    I didn't bother with this.

     

    Falcon Sports 

     
    cincyquencher
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:06 AM ET #5

    The line is set that high because the altitude and stadium in Mexico the ball flies out but 15 is asking a lot I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hit. It’s not a mistake though 

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    The line is set that high because the altitude and stadium in Mexico the ball flies out but 15 is asking a lot I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hit. It’s not a mistake though 

     
    soccergal
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:08 AM ET #6

    I see that line at DraftKings also. Game being played in Mexico today

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    I see that line at DraftKings also. Game being played in Mexico today

     
    350z
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:09 AM ET #7

    In August 2022, MLB announced it would hold a two-game series at the stadium on April 29 and 30, 2023 between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants. These will be the first regular season MLB games in Mexico City.

    Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú (English: Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium) is the home baseball stadium of the Red Devils of Mexico (Diablos Rojos del México) in Mexico City, inaugurated on March 23, 2019. With a capacity of 20,576 seats, it became the first stadium built in the city in the last 50 years.

     

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    In August 2022, MLB announced it would hold a two-game series at the stadium on April 29 and 30, 2023 between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants. These will be the first regular season MLB games in Mexico City.

    Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú (English: Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium) is the home baseball stadium of the Red Devils of Mexico (Diablos Rojos del México) in Mexico City, inaugurated on March 23, 2019. With a capacity of 20,576 seats, it became the first stadium built in the city in the last 50 years.

     

     
    Martylee
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:14 AM ET #8

    It’s because it’s in Mexico ! I would stay away from the under 

    Til death do us under
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    It’s because it’s in Mexico ! I would stay away from the under 

     
    MITM
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:15 AM ET #9

    Oh, playing in Mexico. I'll still pass. 

     

    Good luck guys if u play it. 

     

     

    Falcon 

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    Oh, playing in Mexico. I'll still pass. 

     

    Good luck guys if u play it. 

     

     

    Falcon 

     
    KeyElement
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:23 AM ET #10

    Regardless of where a game is played the hitters still have to hit the pitchers. Some games you could play on a Little League field and they still wouldn't make 15. I have enough edge on Manaea/Musgrove to set a line that would require a 45% gross margin of error to make 15. I'm in.

    peace

    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    Regardless of where a game is played the hitters still have to hit the pitchers. Some games you could play on a Little League field and they still wouldn't make 15. I have enough edge on Manaea/Musgrove to set a line that would require a 45% gross margin of error to make 15. I'm in.

    peace

     
    Nedtan
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:41 AM ET #11

    Did you factor in the cartel? an_ref

     

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    Did you factor in the cartel? an_ref

     

     
    sean2114
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:47 AM ET #12

    There has only been 1 MLB team to play there and it was an exhibition game vs the home team. In that game the Padres scored 11 runs. 325 down the lines and 400 to dead center with no unusual wall changes. High altitude which will help the ball carry in a park that is smaller than most MLB parks. I dunno, feels like a total gamble either way. Good luck, should be an interesting game to watch. 

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    There has only been 1 MLB team to play there and it was an exhibition game vs the home team. In that game the Padres scored 11 runs. 325 down the lines and 400 to dead center with no unusual wall changes. High altitude which will help the ball carry in a park that is smaller than most MLB parks. I dunno, feels like a total gamble either way. Good luck, should be an interesting game to watch. 

     
    Timealker
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 8:56 AM ET #13

    Up to 15 1/2 on Fandual, it’s not a mistake. There will be a ton of runs in Mexico

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    Up to 15 1/2 on Fandual, it’s not a mistake. There will be a ton of runs in Mexico

     
    KeyElement
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 9:05 AM ET #14

    @Nedtan

     Yeah, sure, they will let it rise and then have a talk with the umpires. an_roll_laugh

    @Timealker

     Much of that is up to the pitchers and umpires. We see low scoring games at Coors and Wrigley, even with the wind blowing out. The ball has to be hit hard and elevated to get out. Nothing is as simple as you are stating it. peace

    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    @Nedtan

     Yeah, sure, they will let it rise and then have a talk with the umpires. an_roll_laugh

    @Timealker

     Much of that is up to the pitchers and umpires. We see low scoring games at Coors and Wrigley, even with the wind blowing out. The ball has to be hit hard and elevated to get out. Nothing is as simple as you are stating it. peace

     
    AdVictoriam
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 9:28 AM ET #15

    The O/U on the game is now 15.5 with a -110.

     

    On March 24, 2021 the San Diego Padres played an exhibition game vs the Diablos Rojos and won 11-2.  The "Red Devils" are the pro Mexican league team that has the stadium as their home field.  This was the first game played in the then new stadium.

     

    So, empirically, we see that a game can go under 15.5 runs in that stadium.

     

    I'll take the under myself.  Just the whole process of these teams traveling to Mexico is a completely new thing and routines will be jumbled. 

     

    Neither of these teams hits the ball in the top 10 of the league.  The Padres are 2nd to last in batting average and in the bottom half of the league for most hitting metrics.

     

    The Giants are better, but not a lot better.

     

    an_light

     

     

    "What is grief? If not love perservering?."
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    The O/U on the game is now 15.5 with a -110.

     

    On March 24, 2021 the San Diego Padres played an exhibition game vs the Diablos Rojos and won 11-2.  The "Red Devils" are the pro Mexican league team that has the stadium as their home field.  This was the first game played in the then new stadium.

     

    So, empirically, we see that a game can go under 15.5 runs in that stadium.

     

    I'll take the under myself.  Just the whole process of these teams traveling to Mexico is a completely new thing and routines will be jumbled. 

     

    Neither of these teams hits the ball in the top 10 of the league.  The Padres are 2nd to last in batting average and in the bottom half of the league for most hitting metrics.

     

    The Giants are better, but not a lot better.

     

    an_light

     

     

     
    PerfectStorm
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 9:46 AM ET #16

    Mexico love RUN. Especially across the border. an_roll_laugh
     It’s Ov or nothing for me  bigsmilean_cheers

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    Mexico love RUN. Especially across the border. an_roll_laugh
     It’s Ov or nothing for me  bigsmilean_cheers

     
    invest4profits
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 9:51 AM ET #17

    elevation, thin air, wind

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    elevation, thin air, wind

     
    GriLo
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 9:54 AM ET #18


    Over 15.5 is a big bet for me today.

    Everyone is addicted to gambling. But I try to be a controlled addict.
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    Over 15.5 is a big bet for me today.

     
    camby700
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 11:00 AM ET #19

    Lotta steam on the OVER ......

    Waiting til it tops out then hitting UNDER..

    BOL KEY

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    Lotta steam on the OVER ......

    Waiting til it tops out then hitting UNDER..

    BOL KEY

     
    venezolanisimo
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 11:28 AM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

    Regardless of where a game is played the hitters still have to hit the pitchers. Some games you could play on a Little League field and they still wouldn't make 15. I have enough edge on Manaea/Musgrove to set a line that would require a 45% gross margin of error to make 15. I'm in.
       yes sir peace_5

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    Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

    Regardless of where a game is played the hitters still have to hit the pitchers. Some games you could play on a Little League field and they still wouldn't make 15. I have enough edge on Manaea/Musgrove to set a line that would require a 45% gross margin of error to make 15. I'm in.
       yes sir peace_5

     
    Freddy66
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 11:32 AM ET #21

    Line makes sense, altitude almost 50% higher than coors field and a shorter field. Balls should sail out today. 

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    Line makes sense, altitude almost 50% higher than coors field and a shorter field. Balls should sail out today. 

     
    coolfront
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 11:40 AM ET #22

    LOL. I would come with an injury right before gametime if I was one of the listed starters... F That total...

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    LOL. I would come with an injury right before gametime if I was one of the listed starters... F That total...

     
    GMoneyGTown
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 11:44 AM ET #23

    Somebody's ERA is going through the roof tonight...LMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAO

    Over all the way.

     

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    Somebody's ERA is going through the roof tonight...LMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAO

    Over all the way.

     

     
    AdVictoriam
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 11:45 AM ET #24

    @Freddy66

     

     Then why is the line not 18?

     

    Or 19?

     

    Or 20?

     

    The books know all about it.  Much more than any of us.

     

    Wonder what the percentage of games is over the last few years that have gone over 15 runs at Coors field?

     

    Based on what I am seeing here on Covers and the line movement, the public certainly is the side that likes the OVER.

     

    Just sayin.

     

    an_popcorn

     

     

    "What is grief? If not love perservering?."
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    @Freddy66

     

     Then why is the line not 18?

     

    Or 19?

     

    Or 20?

     

    The books know all about it.  Much more than any of us.

     

    Wonder what the percentage of games is over the last few years that have gone over 15 runs at Coors field?

     

    Based on what I am seeing here on Covers and the line movement, the public certainly is the side that likes the OVER.

     

    Just sayin.

     

    an_popcorn

     

     

     
     
    GMoneyGTown
    GMoneyGTown
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2022
    Posts: 482
    Posted: Apr. 29, 2023 - 11:50 AM ET #25

    @AdVictoriam

     Coors Field totals are normally set between 10-11.  I don't have data to back this up but i have seen that total hit a lot.

    So you are now playing at a Stadium tonight which is even higher in elevation meaning the air is thinner and the ball will potentially fly out more. But remember not everyone is hitting a home run and so you have to get men on base first....but if you do get men on base then the percentages go up that a batter could bring them home with a HR.

    It's not 19 or 20 because sure everyone is going to jump on the under BUT 15.5 attracts enough money on both sides so that the book/Vegas gets action on both sides which is what they want. 

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    @AdVictoriam

     Coors Field totals are normally set between 10-11.  I don't have data to back this up but i have seen that total hit a lot.

    So you are now playing at a Stadium tonight which is even higher in elevation meaning the air is thinner and the ball will potentially fly out more. But remember not everyone is hitting a home run and so you have to get men on base first....but if you do get men on base then the percentages go up that a batter could bring them home with a HR.

    It's not 19 or 20 because sure everyone is going to jump on the under BUT 15.5 attracts enough money on both sides so that the book/Vegas gets action on both sides which is what they want. 

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