I think for the reasons you listed and a few others that the line is adjusted that way.
Griffin has been on fire lately.
Excellent recent form. He posted a 1.16 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP in June, making him one of the hotter pitchers. Griffin has actually improved significantly since that April start. His ERA has dropped to 2.93, and he posted about a 1.15 ERA in June, indicating he's pitching even better now than he was then.
But once the bullpens got involved it was anyone’s game. As long as Griffin can stay in the game until the 7th and Washington can keep the bullpen away — I think they have a lead at that time. Now if they can hold a lead the last 3 innings is anyone’s guess.
Keller can be good if his sinker is working but he has been so inconsistent.
This is an ideal lineup for Keller because of the lack of power from Washington. So, an argument can certainly be made for Keller and Pittsburgh.
I see value on the 1st5. But still took Washington for the FG. The reasoning is that it gives the better pitcher a bit more time to overcome an early mistake because he should pitch a bit deeper into the game.
I think the value in the series is on the Overs for the game.
But in this game at home Griffin should be able to keep it a low scoring game and that number is just too good to pass up.
I took Washington as soon as I could last night at -132. The line is now around -145/-150. To me that gives me a 3% edge over the current line and about 5-6% edge over where I think the line should be.
These are the types of games that can mess up how a series is 'expected' to play out.
I should have played the over in this game. But that would have meant I would have been counting on Washington to do all of the scoring.
But this is the one game I thought would not go over, so did not play the over. I took Washington for the reasons listed above.
Now I think it is much trickier after a blowout like this where one team does so much scoring to assume the overs get there in the next games, no matter the pitching matchups.
These types of games tend to affect both teams play the next couple of games and it is hard to figure how sometimes.
Oh well, we shall see.
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