Posted:
#1
NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
Washington @ Atlanta Under 8.5 (-110)
For starters, the Over is 11-0-1 in these teams last 12 meetings. WHAT?! How can that be? Both ballparks are considered pitcher friendly and both offenses are in the bottom third in the league. Atlanta even has the best bullpen in all of the majors. You know what I say? It ends tonight. While you might say that Derek Lowe is twice as good of a pitcher as John Lannan (if you look at their advanced numbers), I don't think this is how it will play out tonight. Atlanta really struggles against left-handed pitchers and they may be without Jason Heyward tonight due to rest. Both pitchers are extremely good at forcing the ground ball. Derek Lowe's GB% is 59% for a 2.66 GB/FB ratio and John Lannan's GB% is 55% for a 2.18 GB/FB ratio. With ground ball numbers like this and two well below average hitting teams - this over trend just cannot continue. The line opened at the correct number of 8 but trend betters have pushed it up to 8.5. My model has this at 7.3 total runs and with all this extra value, I can't pass up the chance to ride the under with two elite ground ball pitchers throwing against two weak offenses. 22-4 my last 26 MLB wagers.
NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
NCAA: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00uNFL: 1-0 (100.0%) +1.00u
MLB: 95-64-4 (59.8%) +32.05uWashington @ Atlanta Under 8.5 (-110)
For starters, the Over is 11-0-1 in these teams last 12 meetings. WHAT?! How can that be? Both ballparks are considered pitcher friendly and both offenses are in the bottom third in the league. Atlanta even has the best bullpen in all of the majors. You know what I say? It ends tonight. While you might say that Derek Lowe is twice as good of a pitcher as John Lannan (if you look at their advanced numbers), I don't think this is how it will play out tonight. Atlanta really struggles against left-handed pitchers and they may be without Jason Heyward tonight due to rest. Both pitchers are extremely good at forcing the ground ball. Derek Lowe's GB% is 59% for a 2.66 GB/FB ratio and John Lannan's GB% is 55% for a 2.18 GB/FB ratio. With ground ball numbers like this and two well below average hitting teams - this over trend just cannot continue. The line opened at the correct number of 8 but trend betters have pushed it up to 8.5. My model has this at 7.3 total runs and with all this extra value, I can't pass up the chance to ride the under with two elite ground ball pitchers throwing against two weak offenses. 22-4 my last 26 MLB wagers.
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