The more I look into this game, the more I like it as well. In my opinion, the offenses are both about equal with these teams with a slight nod to the reds. The big difference in this game will from the pitching though. Lets take a look at each pitcher:
Atlanta's Jair Jurjens Jurjens is coming off of his worst start of the season. He allowed 6 runs in 5 innings against Washington. It is because of this loss that I love him so much in this game because I see him hitting it hard tonight to make up for it! -Before this last loss, Jurjens had a 1.87 ERA. -Jurjens is currently 12-3 with a 2.26 ERA over all. -On the road he is 5-2 with an ERA of 1.96 Bottom line... This guy is a beast and should bounce back big tonight.
Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo -Arroyo is currently 3-7 with an ERA of 5.35 at home this year. -He is also 0-2 with an ERA of 8.66 during his last 3 starts. -Out of 19 starts this season, only 9 have been quality. -For some reason when he pitches at night he is consistently bad, posting an ERA of 7.15 in 13 starts at night.
Against Bronson Arroyo, the Braves bats should light up tonight.
Between Atlanta's #1 bull pen and superior pitching, I see them taking the game tonight.
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another added play
Atlanta Braves ML
The more I look into this game, the more I like it as well. In my opinion, the offenses are both about equal with these teams with a slight nod to the reds. The big difference in this game will from the pitching though. Lets take a look at each pitcher:
Atlanta's Jair Jurjens Jurjens is coming off of his worst start of the season. He allowed 6 runs in 5 innings against Washington. It is because of this loss that I love him so much in this game because I see him hitting it hard tonight to make up for it! -Before this last loss, Jurjens had a 1.87 ERA. -Jurjens is currently 12-3 with a 2.26 ERA over all. -On the road he is 5-2 with an ERA of 1.96 Bottom line... This guy is a beast and should bounce back big tonight.
Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo -Arroyo is currently 3-7 with an ERA of 5.35 at home this year. -He is also 0-2 with an ERA of 8.66 during his last 3 starts. -Out of 19 starts this season, only 9 have been quality. -For some reason when he pitches at night he is consistently bad, posting an ERA of 7.15 in 13 starts at night.
Against Bronson Arroyo, the Braves bats should light up tonight.
Between Atlanta's #1 bull pen and superior pitching, I see them taking the game tonight.
It's worth noting that Luebke is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in his 4 games as a starter. Laying a huge price against a pitcher with these numbers is not something I like to do. It's a huge price. I'm not claiming the Pads are favored, but the line predicts that you'd break even in the long run if the Phils won 65% of the time.
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It's worth noting that Luebke is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in his 4 games as a starter. Laying a huge price against a pitcher with these numbers is not something I like to do. It's a huge price. I'm not claiming the Pads are favored, but the line predicts that you'd break even in the long run if the Phils won 65% of the time.
It's worth noting that Luebke is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in his 4 games as a starter. Laying a huge price against a pitcher with these numbers is not something I like to do. It's a huge price. I'm not claiming the Pads are favored, but the line predicts that you'd break even in the long run if the Phils won 65% of the time.
Yeah, you are right. In the long run it would take 65% to break even with the lines.
Fortunately, out of all of my bets only a very small portion contain so much juice. I only play them when I really like them. This just happens to be one of those games.
Luebke has been solid in his 4 games as a starter. This play isn't based on Luebke doing horrible. It has more to do with the success each team has had against the others and that I think the Phillie's offense will prevail. Also, I just think the Phillies are beasts at home and trust them much more than the inconsistent Padres on the road. I do still think that Hamels will out do him though.
Thank you for your input man. I have always had a lot of respect for you as a capper. One of the things I really like is how you always look at the long-term gain of bets.
Take care man!
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Quote Originally Posted by Werker:
It's worth noting that Luebke is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in his 4 games as a starter. Laying a huge price against a pitcher with these numbers is not something I like to do. It's a huge price. I'm not claiming the Pads are favored, but the line predicts that you'd break even in the long run if the Phils won 65% of the time.
Yeah, you are right. In the long run it would take 65% to break even with the lines.
Fortunately, out of all of my bets only a very small portion contain so much juice. I only play them when I really like them. This just happens to be one of those games.
Luebke has been solid in his 4 games as a starter. This play isn't based on Luebke doing horrible. It has more to do with the success each team has had against the others and that I think the Phillie's offense will prevail. Also, I just think the Phillies are beasts at home and trust them much more than the inconsistent Padres on the road. I do still think that Hamels will out do him though.
Thank you for your input man. I have always had a lot of respect for you as a capper. One of the things I really like is how you always look at the long-term gain of bets.
I just got called into work for the next 3 hours. I dont have time to make a write up but I will lock in the In the indians ML now incase I dont get back in time. I am still looking at twins +1.5. If i do that bet it will be 10 minutes before the game starts. Also, I am 90% sure I will be on SF tonight. If I do play it, I will lock it in about an hour before the game starts.
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I just got called into work for the next 3 hours. I dont have time to make a write up but I will lock in the In the indians ML now incase I dont get back in time. I am still looking at twins +1.5. If i do that bet it will be 10 minutes before the game starts. Also, I am 90% sure I will be on SF tonight. If I do play it, I will lock it in about an hour before the game starts.
Closer, temp on the field in Philly right now at 5:10 pm is 115 degrees. Not sure how this will affect the game but just wanted to pass that info. BOL brother!!!
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Closer, temp on the field in Philly right now at 5:10 pm is 115 degrees. Not sure how this will affect the game but just wanted to pass that info. BOL brother!!!
I made a play on Atlanta for 2 units at -117 ( fuck you SI ). I've been
looking at Tampa vs KC all day and for some strange reason I can't just
make a play on tampa . Here are some scenarios: Hoch is a freaking gas
can against the Rays; with an average ERA of 10.00 in his last 4 starts.
A WHIP of 1.94 and BAA of .383. Hoch is also 1-7 during night games
this season. Davis is coming off an injury and he has a modest 5-3
record during the night and 4-2 away. He's started 2 games against KC
with an ERA of 1.29, a WHIP of 0.79 and a BAA of .125. Not too mention
that KC has a record of 10-22 in the opening game this season and the
rays are a pretty good road team. BOL to you also Closer.
PS: If I see the Braves are doing well early, I'll throw a bet on Tampa for sure.
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I made a play on Atlanta for 2 units at -117 ( fuck you SI ). I've been
looking at Tampa vs KC all day and for some strange reason I can't just
make a play on tampa . Here are some scenarios: Hoch is a freaking gas
can against the Rays; with an average ERA of 10.00 in his last 4 starts.
A WHIP of 1.94 and BAA of .383. Hoch is also 1-7 during night games
this season. Davis is coming off an injury and he has a modest 5-3
record during the night and 4-2 away. He's started 2 games against KC
with an ERA of 1.29, a WHIP of 0.79 and a BAA of .125. Not too mention
that KC has a record of 10-22 in the opening game this season and the
rays are a pretty good road team. BOL to you also Closer.
PS: If I see the Braves are doing well early, I'll throw a bet on Tampa for sure.
I made a play on Atlanta for 2 units at -117 ( fuck you SI ). I've been
looking at Tampa vs KC all day and for some strange reason I can't just
make a play on tampa . Here are some scenarios: Hoch is a freaking gas
can against the Rays; with an average ERA of 10.00 in his last 4 starts.
A WHIP of 1.94 and BAA of .383. Hoch is also 1-7 during night games
this season. Davis is coming off an injury and he has a modest 5-3
record during the night and 4-2 away. He's started 2 games against KC
with an ERA of 1.29, a WHIP of 0.79 and a BAA of .125. Not too mention
that KC has a record of 10-22 in the opening game this season and the
rays are a pretty good road team. BOL to you also Closer.
PS: If I see the Braves are doing well early, I'll throw a bet on Tampa for sure.
Well.. hopefully the braves will do well AND we win tampa than lol.
Thanks a bunch for your opinion on the game. I love it when people share their views. I have learned a lot from you guys.
GL tonight!
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Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:
I made a play on Atlanta for 2 units at -117 ( fuck you SI ). I've been
looking at Tampa vs KC all day and for some strange reason I can't just
make a play on tampa . Here are some scenarios: Hoch is a freaking gas
can against the Rays; with an average ERA of 10.00 in his last 4 starts.
A WHIP of 1.94 and BAA of .383. Hoch is also 1-7 during night games
this season. Davis is coming off an injury and he has a modest 5-3
record during the night and 4-2 away. He's started 2 games against KC
with an ERA of 1.29, a WHIP of 0.79 and a BAA of .125. Not too mention
that KC has a record of 10-22 in the opening game this season and the
rays are a pretty good road team. BOL to you also Closer.
PS: If I see the Braves are doing well early, I'll throw a bet on Tampa for sure.
Well.. hopefully the braves will do well AND we win tampa than lol.
Thanks a bunch for your opinion on the game. I love it when people share their views. I have learned a lot from you guys.
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