Posted:
#1
NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
MLB: 79-61-3 (56.4%) +17.75u
Los Angeles Dodgers (-120)
Milwaukee has only scored 11 runs in their last 5 games (average of 2.2 runs per game). If there's any pitcher that could push this average lower, it's the strikeout-kid Clayton Kershaw. He has top 5 numbers in almost every pitching category - advanced AND standard metrics. He averages close to 10 K/9 with a K/B ratio above 4. He's holding batters to an average close to .200. Estrada doesn't have anything near this good. He has a very poor GB% and he struggles mightily against left-handers. Oddly enough, despite the Dodgers right-handed power hitters, they have better numbers against righties on the season. But to keep this simple, the starting pitcher discrepancy is too much to ignore. Much like the Tampa Bay @ Boston game yesterday, we have an elite pitcher (in this case a top 5 pitcher) at basically a pick'em spread against a team that has had trouble hitting and scoring in recent games. I wouldn't be surprised to see a big goose egg on the scoreboard next to Milwaukee today. Dodgers will win to avoid the sweep behind their ace in this get-away-day-game. I will be looking for home games to fade the Brewers through the rest of the season, and this is a great place to start. Don't be suckered into taking the Brewers at home at plus money: the Dodgers is the only play today.
NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
NCAA: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00uLos Angeles Dodgers (-120)
Milwaukee has only scored 11 runs in their last 5 games (average of 2.2 runs per game). If there's any pitcher that could push this average lower, it's the strikeout-kid Clayton Kershaw. He has top 5 numbers in almost every pitching category - advanced AND standard metrics. He averages close to 10 K/9 with a K/B ratio above 4. He's holding batters to an average close to .200. Estrada doesn't have anything near this good. He has a very poor GB% and he struggles mightily against left-handers. Oddly enough, despite the Dodgers right-handed power hitters, they have better numbers against righties on the season. But to keep this simple, the starting pitcher discrepancy is too much to ignore. Much like the Tampa Bay @ Boston game yesterday, we have an elite pitcher (in this case a top 5 pitcher) at basically a pick'em spread against a team that has had trouble hitting and scoring in recent games. I wouldn't be surprised to see a big goose egg on the scoreboard next to Milwaukee today. Dodgers will win to avoid the sweep behind their ace in this get-away-day-game. I will be looking for home games to fade the Brewers through the rest of the season, and this is a great place to start. Don't be suckered into taking the Brewers at home at plus money: the Dodgers is the only play today.
0
Hot Forum Topics
