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🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

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Legend
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Posted: #5451

Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:

@NetProfit2023     I’m not trying to be the Covers police, but I don’t really see the benefit of posting a live bet s or any bets in this thread   

We’re trying to have one specific discussion in this thread. If you want to post those plays, it probably makes more sense to start your own thread, post your record or not , and let people follow along there.  

That keeps this one cleaner and easier to track. peace_5

 

@NetProfit2023

cool Hey bud peace_5  Wish you good fortunes with your bets tonight! an_2drinks

 

No disprespect,peace_5 but perhaps it would be better all around if you did make your own thread and post all your picks in there. peace_5 You're doing WELL an_clap  so let the forum follow you and your progress! Make a compelling subject title and they will, and I'd be glad to visit and cheer on your picks too! win  TY for your visits here too!

 
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Posted: #5452

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

 Amazing METS -127 @pinn  *BBan_nailbiter     ...Mets should be a solid +1.0 run edge***

 

 

***but this is risky!!!....fingershake this presumes PERALTA does not pull another stinker and implode AT HOME while facing a mediocre Cards lineupangry.... Bats and bullpen otherwise should favor the AMAZINGS....but ya never know with these guys, especially FREDDY....an_nailbiter

 

Bet small if at all.

an_ref ...and just as feared, PERALTA has imploded on the mound... sad

So unless METS get really sharp at the plate, this is a LOSER because of Freddy...

 

an_timeoutFortunately I deliberately waited to post this right at gamestart so nobody would be influenced to get a bet down on them...

 
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Posted: #5453

Well, my bet only has about a 45% chance to win SU; not so good . . . 

but I only have the CUBS with a narrow +0.4 run edge to beat the Rockies so I'm going with the homies on the RL.

Rockies +1.5 +100 @pinn  "value bet"       

 
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Posted: #5454

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:  Amazing METS -127 @pinn  *BB     ...Mets should be a solid +1.0 run edge***     ***but this is risky!!!.... this presumes PERALTA does not pull another stinker and implode AT HOME while facing a mediocre Cards lineup.... Bats and bullpen otherwise should favor the AMAZINGS....but ya never know with these guys, especially FREDDY....   Bet small if at all.  

an_ref...and just as feared, PERALTA has imploded on the mound... sad

So unless METS get really sharp at the plate, this is a LOSER because of Freddy...

 

an_timeoutFortunately I deliberately waited to post this right at gamestart so nobody would be influenced to get a bet down on them...

6 - 0 for Cards as PERALTA phucked-it-all-up as feared ......sigh.... my fault though!  I took a chance that Freddy would not screw the pooch,  but he did...

 
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Posted: #5455

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

:

an_eek2 The PIRATES are a only  7 - 7  when SKENES starts...

Tuesday, he and his team face the powerful bats of the DODGERS, who own the best run differential in MLB at +133

 

Even though he sports a terrific 0.91 WHIP stat, the Pirates lost his last 4 starts.

Coin-tosser.   PASS!

So, again SKENES pitches well!...allowed only 8 on and 2 ER thru 6 ip.

But will his skill on the mound result in Pirates winning? an_eek2

 
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Posted: #5456

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:  Amazing METS -127 @pinn  *BB     ...Mets should be a solid +1.0 run edge***     ***but this is risky!!!.... this presumes PERALTA does not pull another stinker and implode AT HOME while facing a mediocre Cards lineup.... Bats and bullpen otherwise should favor the AMAZINGS....but ya never know with these guys, especially FREDDY....   Bet small if at all.   ...and just as feared, PERALTA has imploded on the mound...  So unless METS get really sharp at the plate, this is a LOSER because of Freddy...   Fortunately I deliberately waited to post this right at gamestart so nobody would be influenced to get a bet down on them... 6 - 0 for Cards as PERALTA phucked-it-all-up as feared ......sigh.... my fault though!  I took a chance that Freddy would not screw the pooch,  but he did...

No problem Fubah. an_cheers

 
Legend
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Posted: #5457

The GIANTS starter, Houser, has struggled AT HOME.....he struggles even more against lefty bats.paint_help 

So guess what?!  ...tonight HOUSER is the SP AT HOME and the very good bats of Washington are throwing 8 lefties at him!

That and I have the NATS with the slightly better bats to begin with and about even in the pens.  As long as ALVAREZ doesn't screw the pooch there should be more runs scored than yesterday with NATS on top again...

 

NATS  -105 @pinn        ...roughly a +0.7 run edge; almost a *BB

 
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Posted: #5458

Last game . . .

LEANING to UNDER 13.5 . . .

 
Legend
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Posted: #5459

. Tuesday, June 09:

W  SEATTLE -112 @pinn
W  NYY -116 @pinn
 L   METS -127 @pinn   *BB loss
W  Marlins -135 @pinn *BB     ...have them tabbed for a solid +1.3 run edge
   pending...Rockies +1.5 +100 @pinn "value bet"
   pending...NATS -105 @pinn          ...roughly a +0.7 run edge; almost a *BB

 

 
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Posted: #5460

Tailed you on the Mariners.  Man these bullpens are awful this year.

 
Legend
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Posted: #5461

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

In my humble analysis, tonight in Cleveland it all boils down to whether or not a very GOOD starter (COLE) implodes on the mound vs the Cleveland bats.  That's the #1 Q.  YES, all other considerations *ARE* important too....but this is the most important single issue.  If he does not implode, chances are very high Yankees win.  If he DOES implode, the edge swings to Cleveland, although it could still be a battle.   

 

So, will he?

COLE was/is an ELITE starter. We all know this.  And he holds up very well when opps throw a bunch of lefty bats against his right arm, like tonight!  But this season (coming off major injury and a year off) is still a bit of a questionmark... His first 2 outings this year he pitched VERY WELL! win EXCELLENT in fact! 

an_eek2But last week against this very same Cleveland squad - in Yankee Stadium - they got to him!  Over 5.1 ip he managed only 2Ks and was tagged for 3 HOMERS and 4 ER in a 5 - 4 loss.an_speechless  So, 2 GOOD starts then that BAD one vs Cleveland.  After tonight he may be 3 good outings vs just 1 bad (ie, GOOD pitcher), or  2 - 2 (ie, mediocre pitcher)

I bet the YANKEES and they got a close win......but I have to tag COLE with a technical "BAD outing" .....2 earned runs against him over just 4 ip is mediocre.....but putting on 8 baserunners over 4 ip  is  BAD. 

Next week Cole faces the WhiteSox - who are arguably slightly better at the plate than Cleveland... 

 
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Posted: #5462

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: :  The PIRATES are a only  7 - 7  when SKENES starts... Tuesday, he and his team face the powerful bats of the DODGERS, who own the best run differential in MLB at +133   Even though he sports a terrific 0.91 WHIP stat, the Pirates lost his last 4 starts. Coin-tosser.   PASS!

So, again SKENES pitches well!...allowed only 8 on and 2 ER thru 6 ip. But will his skill on the mound result in Pirates winning?

 

Nope.

The Pirates fall to 7 - 8 in games that Skenes starts;  only 3 - 5 AT HOME! an_getaway

The Vegas odds are heavily influenced by the "alleged" ability of the starter.

But wins/losses are not decided solely or even MOSTLY by the starters.

Offense (or lack thereof) is more determinant.  If we did nothing otherthan bet the teams - in any given matchup - with a *SIGNIFICANTLY* better offense, we would win more bets than betting teams with a *SIGNIFICANTLY* better starter.

My "value bets" largely arise out of analysis of the offenses, with less weight to the starters.

 
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Posted: #5463

. cool HUMPING DAY! thejester

 

 

I show TAMPA with a +0.9 run edge over BoSox

 

NYY/Cleve looks like another coin-flipper

 

Sea/Balt is a coin-flipper

 

AZ/Miami is a coin-flipper

 

Wash/Giants is a coin-flipper

 

 
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Posted: #5464

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Last game . . . LEANING to UNDER 13.5 . . .

Didn't post my bet on this under....small bet.....normally I HATE unders.

 
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Posted: #5465

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Well, my bet only has about a 45% chance to win SU; not so good . . .  but I only have the CUBS with a narrow +0.4 run edge to beat the Rockies so I'm going with the homies on the RL.

Rockies +1.5 +100 @pinn  "value bet"

7 - 3  WINNER

YTD "value bets":   34 - 20    +20.56u

 
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Posted: #5466

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

.  HUMPING DAY!     

 

I show TAMPA with a +0.9 run edge over BoSox 

But currently the odds are too high for me for this amount of edge... Need <131

 
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Posted: #5467

. Tuesday, June 09 results:

 

W  Seattle -112 @pinn
W  NYY -116 @pinn
 L   METS -127 @pinn   *BB loss
W  Marlins -135 @pinn *BB     ...have them tabbed for a solid +1.3 run edge
W  Rockies +1.5 +100 @pinn "value bet"
W  NATS -105 @pinn            ...roughly a +0.7 run edge; almost a *BB

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #5468

HUMPING DAY! June 10:

an_police  an_blowhorn   HOT STREAK WARNING! an_speechless

 

                                    OHTANI,  Dodgers

 

           This STARTER is riding a tenuous  10-game  HOT STREAK, an_lightening

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET! 

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway          

 

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  CAN NOT be avoided. an_shake Best to avoid!

 

an_lightCAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't guarantee his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe!   You decide.

 
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Posted: #5469

an_police Other top notch starters who had a bad outing recently:


Skenes (Pitty) ....lost 5 consecutive starts!! an_speechless
Schlittler (NYY)...lose 9 - 4 vs Cleveland
Sale (Atlanta).....lose 7 - 2 vs TORO
Martinez (TB) ....lose 7 - 2 vs Detroit
deGrom (Tex).....lost 9 - 6 vs Angels
Elder (Atlanta) ...lost 8 - 0 vs BoSox
Rasmussen (TB) ...lost 14 - 3 vs Angels

 
Legend
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Posted: #5470

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Other top notch starters who had a bad outing recently: Skenes (Pitty) ....lost 5 consecutive starts!! Schlittler (NYY)...lose 9 - 4 vs ClevelandSale (Atlanta).....lose 7 - 2 vs TOROMartinez (TB) ....lose 7 - 2 vs DetroitdeGrom (Tex).....lost 9 - 6 vs AngelsElder (Atlanta) ...lost 8 - 0 vs BoSoxRasmussen (TB) ...lost 14 - 3 vs Angels

I'm certain I'll be adding more to this list this month!

 
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Posted: #5471

What you playing today 

 
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Posted: #5472

????

 
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Posted: #5473

Looks like we get a night off and I'm fine with that 

 
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Posted: #5474

Among the leading MLB starters, there are only 3 currently on extended hot streaks of which to be aware:

13 without a "bad outing"   THE MIZ (Brewskies)

10 without a "bad outing"  BURNS (Reds)

 8 without a "bad outing"   SANCHEZ (Philly)

 

The time to be concerned about rising chances of a "bad outing" is any streak of at least 7 starts without a bad outing in that stretch.  And once the numbers rise into double-digits it's serious  RED ALERT time an_police

 

 

 
 
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Posted: #5475

@fubah2

 A+ I loved Ohtani yesterday up 6-1 I was going to bet Dodgers -1.5 then I read your warning and stayed away. Very Grateful for your "hot streak warning." Making money is my favorite thing in life, saving money is my second favorite thing in life.  an_cheers

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