🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

@NetProfit2023

 Hey bud   Wish you good fortunes with your bets tonight! 

No disprespect, but perhaps it would be better all around if you did make your own thread and post all your picks in there.  You're doing WELL   so let the forum follow you and your progress! Make a compelling subject title and they will, and I'd be glad to visit and cheer on your picks too!   TY for your visits here too!

 ...and just as feared, PERALTA has imploded on the mound... 

So unless METS get really sharp at the plate, this is a LOSER because of Freddy...

Fortunately I deliberately waited to post this right at gamestart so nobody would be influenced to get a bet down on them...

Well, my bet only has about a 45% chance to win SU; not so good . . . 

but I only have the CUBS with a narrow +0.4 run edge to beat the Rockies so I'm going with the homies on the RL.

Rockies +1.5 +100 @pinn  "value bet"       

So, again SKENES pitches well!...allowed only 8 on and 2 ER thru 6 ip.

But will his skill on the mound result in Pirates winning? 

No problem Fubah. 

The GIANTS starter, Houser, has struggled AT HOME.....he struggles even more against lefty bats. 

So guess what?!  ...tonight HOUSER is the SP AT HOME and the very good bats of Washington are throwing 8 lefties at him!

That and I have the NATS with the slightly better bats to begin with and about even in the pens.  As long as ALVAREZ doesn't screw the pooch there should be more runs scored than yesterday with NATS on top again...

NATS  -105 @pinn        ...roughly a +0.7 run edge; almost a *BB

Last game . . .

LEANING to UNDER 13.5 . . .

. Tuesday, June 09:

W  SEATTLE -112 @pinn
W  NYY -116 @pinn
 L   METS -127 @pinn   *BB loss
W  Marlins -135 @pinn *BB     ...have them tabbed for a solid +1.3 run edge
   pending...Rockies +1.5 +100 @pinn "value bet"
   pending...NATS -105 @pinn          ...roughly a +0.7 run edge; almost a *BB

Tailed you on the Mariners.  Man these bullpens are awful this year.

I bet the YANKEES and they got a close win......but I have to tag COLE with a technical "BAD outing" .....2 earned runs against him over just 4 ip is mediocre.....but putting on 8 baserunners over 4 ip  is  BAD. 

Next week Cole faces the WhiteSox - who are arguably slightly better at the plate than Cleveland... 

Nope.

The Pirates fall to 7 - 8 in games that Skenes starts;  only 3 - 5 AT HOME! 

The Vegas odds are heavily influenced by the "alleged" ability of the starter.

But wins/losses are not decided solely or even MOSTLY by the starters.

Offense (or lack thereof) is more determinant.  If we did nothing otherthan bet the teams - in any given matchup - with a *SIGNIFICANTLY* better offense, we would win more bets than betting teams with a *SIGNIFICANTLY* better starter.

My "value bets" largely arise out of analysis of the offenses, with less weight to the starters.

.  HUMPING DAY! 

I show TAMPA with a +0.9 run edge over BoSox

NYY/Cleve looks like another coin-flipper

Sea/Balt is a coin-flipper

AZ/Miami is a coin-flipper

Wash/Giants is a coin-flipper

Didn't post my bet on this under....small bet.....normally I HATE unders.

7 - 3  WINNER

YTD "value bets":   34 - 20    +20.56u

But currently the odds are too high for me for this amount of edge... Need <131

. Tuesday, June 09 results:

W  Seattle -112 @pinn
W  NYY -116 @pinn
 L   METS -127 @pinn   *BB loss
W  Marlins -135 @pinn *BB     ...have them tabbed for a solid +1.3 run edge
W  Rockies +1.5 +100 @pinn "value bet"
W  NATS -105 @pinn            ...roughly a +0.7 run edge; almost a *BB

HUMPING DAY! June 10:

     HOT STREAK WARNING! 

                                    OHTANI,  Dodgers

           This STARTER is riding a tenuous  10-game  HOT STREAK, 

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET! 

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  CAN NOT be avoided.  Best to avoid!

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't guarantee his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe!   You decide.

 Other top notch starters who had a bad outing recently:

Skenes (Pitty) ....lost 5 consecutive starts!! 
Schlittler (NYY)...lose 9 - 4 vs Cleveland
Sale (Atlanta).....lose 7 - 2 vs TORO
Martinez (TB) ....lose 7 - 2 vs Detroit
deGrom (Tex).....lost 9 - 6 vs Angels
Elder (Atlanta) ...lost 8 - 0 vs BoSox
Rasmussen (TB) ...lost 14 - 3 vs Angels

I'm certain I'll be adding more to this list this month!

What you playing today 

????

Looks like we get a night off and I'm fine with that 

Among the leading MLB starters, there are only 3 currently on extended hot streaks of which to be aware:

13 without a "bad outing"   THE MIZ (Brewskies)

10 without a "bad outing"  BURNS (Reds)

 8 without a "bad outing"   SANCHEZ (Philly)

The time to be concerned about rising chances of a "bad outing" is any streak of at least 7 starts without a bad outing in that stretch.  And once the numbers rise into double-digits it's serious  RED ALERT time 

@fubah2

 A+ I loved Ohtani yesterday up 6-1 I was going to bet Dodgers -1.5 then I read your warning and stayed away. Very Grateful for your "hot streak warning." Making money is my favorite thing in life, saving money is my second favorite thing in life.