🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Quote Originally Posted by NetProfit2023:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LIVE hedge BET, no score, top 1st, loaded, 1 out: CUBS -130 *BB @B365   Chandler looks shaky!!! 

 

 

 

i think Cubs win this. Nice Hedge. I will chase after Cubs -2.5 for 1 unit.

@NetProfit2023

We have all been waiting for CUBBIES to break out of their slump, because we KNOW it's coming at some point.  I didn't think it would be today, but CHANDLER has given them hope and momentum early so maybe! Cubs have the better pen I believe and Pirates pen is mediocre so we shall see...

I'm okay with accepting a split and a tiny juice loss...

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

TAMPA already LOSING 0 - 5 after only one bat for Orioles  because an otherwise GOOD starter, MATZ, totally imploded in the first inning allowing a whopping 7 on board and 5 ER to a mediocre team...

 

THAT happens to ALL pitchers, including the best of them, and more frequently than we might suspect.  Just never know when it will occur.

Coming up is a starter who was DOMINANT for years before his 2024 injury.  COLE (NYY) just returned and had an EXCELLENT start.  But....tiny sample size!  He could flop this time out, even against the mediocre bats of the Royals..  Good thing is he is backed up by a decent pen whereas Royals are lacking in that area, and THEIR starter (Cameron) is struggling this season....but now has to face one of the TOP OFFENSES in MLB.  The batting order/lineups do look to favor Yankees again, and if COLE continues his stellar pitching, the Yankees should prevail even if Cameron pitches a good game.

YANKEES -146 @pinn   *BB           ... I have NYY with a decent +1.3 run edge

So.....Bryce Elder, ACE starter for Braves with an awesome 1.97 ERA,

saw his 11 game HOT STREAK without a "bad outing" end abruptly today after allowing 10 baserunners and 6 runs in only 3.1 ip!!

 Like an ignorant fool, I violated my own rule and bet the Braves knowing ELDER was on a very shaky 11 game HOT STREAK due for a weakass performance at any time.....and sure enough it looks like the BRAVES will fold up tent and go down to the very mediocre BoSox

It does not matter how great the starter is, it happens to all of them....and the odds of it happening get closer and closer with each consecutive outing without a bad performance >>> especially after reaching 7.

The other GOOD starter today who struggled is MATZ (Tampa)   He imploded  in the first and the mighty bats of Orioles have never looked back from that 6 - 0 gift to start the game...

 It's HUMPING DAY! 

W  Toronto -147 @pinn    *BB
W  Brewskies -144 @pinn *BB   
W  Phillies -138 @pinn    *BB
W  Dbacks -107 @pinn  ...minimal +0.6 edge, after accounting for loss of ARENADO
 L Pirates -108 @pinn *BB ...but Cubs could return to good batting at any moment 
W  LIVE hedge BET, no score, top 1st, loaded, 1 out: CUBS -130   *BB 
 L  Braves -104 @pinn  *BB 
 L  Tampa -117 @pinn  ...only a modest +0.8 run edge; does NOT achieve *BB status
    pending... YANKEES -146 @pinn  *BB
    pending... Rangers -137 @pinn   *BB

Thursday?

Make note:

Paul Skenes (Pitty) has pitched TWO bad outings in succession, Pirates lost both.

@fubah2

 But against 1-9 (last 10) Cubs?

Haven't handicapped it yet....but on the surface, it looks to me like the Pirates are overvalued at -170 - just because Skenes is on the mound.

CUBS bats may have finally broken thru their long slumber. Maybe. Uncertain. Thru May 08 they were the best team in MLB and for good reasons.  Hot streaks don't last and neither do cold streaks to otherwise solid teams.

In Skenes' 11 starts, the Pirates have won 6 and lost 5 even though he pitched well in 9 of those 11 starts.

Only 3 - 3 at home in Skene's starts - despite pitching well in all but one of those! 

TEAM wins and losses aren't all about how good the starter is (or presumed to be)

Pirates might win, sure, but I can't make a SOUND rationalization for laying -170. -125/-130 maybe, but not heavy fav status...

I'll cap the game later but this looks like a PASS. 

Capped.  I have Cubs run est. at 3.1 and Pitty at 4.0  That +0.9 run edge for Pirates is significant but according to my stats an approximate +0.9 run edge is a good bet only up to around -125 or thereabouts.  Much beyond that and I automatically PASS and look for better opportunities elsewhere. 

The numbers suggest no good value taking a total here either.

BoL today everyone 

@fubah2

 I got it. Yes, you right. Taking Pirates could be risky but probably they gonna win ("easy"). Good morning btw.

@CharlieKellyUO

 Yes, the chances are in Pirates favor based on what we know.

An  unknown X factor though are the CUBS' bats.

They were dominant for the first 5 weeks of the season; first place team..... So the Q now is did yesterday's 10 run output signal their return or was that simply a one-off and they will continue their long batting slump?  

We don't know.  

But as long as they continue to struggle Pirates should prevail today.

If they have turned it around,  that might change everything.

It's safer to PASS and observe from a safe distance, LOL 

Thursday, May 28:

Detroit Tiggers -128 @pinn  *BB   

...tailing not recommended as I am including a partial hunch for improved run production by Detroit

@fubah2

@fubah2

 Pitcher change for TWINS just announced... Rojas scratched; Woods in ....according to Roto

CWS -163 @pinn  *BB   ....solid +1.7 run edge for homies; assuming they play to avg.

Min/CWS over 7 -149 alt-total@pinn  *BB    ...est run production: 3.5 vs 5.2

CWS  TT ov 2.5 -282 @pinn  *BB

**Woods-Richardson and Martin must go

CWS odds jumped immediately when PC announced

They absolutely could!

But probably about 20 - 30% chance or so.

Still, ya never really know in baseball.  Unexpected upsets seem to happen almost every day!

So far it looks unlikely my hunch will come to fruition 

 My capping shows only a very tiny edge for BRAVES....almost negligible.

And that would normally suggest a "value bet" on BoSox might be a decent bet *IF* they would be getting at least +120 or better (NOT LESS!)

BIG FAT LOSER