WCinci +133 @pinn "value bet" WTampa -109 @pinn *BB WTampa TT ov 2.5 -295 @SIA WTwinkies -133 @pinn *BB WAstros TT un 4.5 -193 @pinn WCleve -115 @pinn *BB WA's -125 @pinn *BB L A's/LAA und 10 -125 alt@pinn WLIVE hedge BET top of 9th, LAA 5 - 4: OV 9.5 +270 @B365 L LIVE hedge BET, 5 - 5, top of 10th: ANGELS -125 @B365 *BB loss
WCinci +133 @pinn "value bet" WTampa -109 @pinn *BB WTampa TT ov 2.5 -295 @SIA WTwinkies -133 @pinn *BB WAstros TT un 4.5 -193 @pinn WCleve -115 @pinn *BB WA's -125 @pinn *BB L A's/LAA und 10 -125 alt@pinn WLIVE hedge BET top of 9th, LAA 5 - 4: OV 9.5 +270 @B365 L LIVE hedge BET, 5 - 5, top of 10th: ANGELS -125 @B365 *BB loss
I have Toronto as a borderline, possible "value bet" if I can get more plus $$$. The questionmark is which way RODON will swing: Back to his form as a GOOD pitcher like last year OR continue on current 2-game path of sub-par performances. Blue Jays should be OK on the mound and appear to have emerged from their batting slump, so this might well be another close, one-run game that could go either way - pending on RODON...Also, Yankees usually rebound from a poor performance...
If Jays can get more plus $$$ into the +130s then I might spring for a "value bet"
3
I have Toronto as a borderline, possible "value bet" if I can get more plus $$$. The questionmark is which way RODON will swing: Back to his form as a GOOD pitcher like last year OR continue on current 2-game path of sub-par performances. Blue Jays should be OK on the mound and appear to have emerged from their batting slump, so this might well be another close, one-run game that could go either way - pending on RODON...Also, Yankees usually rebound from a poor performance...
If Jays can get more plus $$$ into the +130s then I might spring for a "value bet"
May 21: no pending "value bet" today although JAYS are borderline
May 20: 1 - 0 +1.33u "value bets" May 19: 3 - 0 +3.79u "value bets" May 18: 1 - 1 +0.30u "value bets" May 17: 3 - 0 +3.65u "value bets"
Recent streak: 8 - 1 +9.07u
YTD = 25 - 11+19.71u
NOTES:Value bets are a term I use for when my particular style of handicapping uncovers what appears to be COIN-FLIP matchups (or very close to it) but where one team is getting *SIGNIFICANT* plus $$$. Basically a 50/50 chance for either team. But when the payoff for one of them is *SIGNIFICANT* PLUS $$$, it's a no-brainer!
Usually I need +120 or better odds, which will float either way pending very minor edges to either team. Thus if the fav has a very slight edge (ie, not exactly a true 50/50 game) then I would need higher plus money on the dog.....Conversely, if the dog actually has a very thin edge, I would accept slightly lesser odds then +120.
For me, alarm bells go off when it LOOKS LIKE a 50/50 matchup but VEGAS has the dog getting waaaay too much plus $$$
This angle is predicated on roughly 50% wins vs losses over the season, which should produce a profitable outcome!
CAUTION:25 - 11 season start is quite a bit higher than anticipated if my selected matchups are at or near 50/50 coin-flips. This suggests greater early season luck and thus regression is likely at some point, maybe soon. It's plausible that my next 36 "value bets" will produce more LOSERS than winners.
6
May 21: no pending "value bet" today although JAYS are borderline
May 20: 1 - 0 +1.33u "value bets" May 19: 3 - 0 +3.79u "value bets" May 18: 1 - 1 +0.30u "value bets" May 17: 3 - 0 +3.65u "value bets"
Recent streak: 8 - 1 +9.07u
YTD = 25 - 11+19.71u
NOTES:Value bets are a term I use for when my particular style of handicapping uncovers what appears to be COIN-FLIP matchups (or very close to it) but where one team is getting *SIGNIFICANT* plus $$$. Basically a 50/50 chance for either team. But when the payoff for one of them is *SIGNIFICANT* PLUS $$$, it's a no-brainer!
Usually I need +120 or better odds, which will float either way pending very minor edges to either team. Thus if the fav has a very slight edge (ie, not exactly a true 50/50 game) then I would need higher plus money on the dog.....Conversely, if the dog actually has a very thin edge, I would accept slightly lesser odds then +120.
For me, alarm bells go off when it LOOKS LIKE a 50/50 matchup but VEGAS has the dog getting waaaay too much plus $$$
This angle is predicated on roughly 50% wins vs losses over the season, which should produce a profitable outcome!
CAUTION:25 - 11 season start is quite a bit higher than anticipated if my selected matchups are at or near 50/50 coin-flips. This suggests greater early season luck and thus regression is likely at some point, maybe soon. It's plausible that my next 36 "value bets" will produce more LOSERS than winners.
I have Toronto as a borderline, possible "value bet" if I can get more plus $$$. The questionmark is which way RODON will swing: Back to his form as a GOOD pitcher like last year OR continue on current 2-game path of sub-par performances. Blue Jays should be OK on the mound and appear to have emerged from their batting slump, so this might well be another close, one-run game that could go either way - pending on RODON...Also, Yankees usually rebound from a poor performance... If Jays can get more plus $$$ into the +130s then I might spring for a "value bet"
Jays value bet??
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
I have Toronto as a borderline, possible "value bet" if I can get more plus $$$. The questionmark is which way RODON will swing: Back to his form as a GOOD pitcher like last year OR continue on current 2-game path of sub-par performances. Blue Jays should be OK on the mound and appear to have emerged from their batting slump, so this might well be another close, one-run game that could go either way - pending on RODON...Also, Yankees usually rebound from a poor performance... If Jays can get more plus $$$ into the +130s then I might spring for a "value bet"
Just not much to choose from today, no reason to press…smart man
Yep, always very good advice.
Just because there is a game on the schedule does not require us to force a bet. Either one has a *SIGNIFICANT* edge with good odds to justify a risk or PASS! There's always more games again tomorrow...
4
Quote Originally Posted by Vegasdawg:
Just not much to choose from today, no reason to press…smart man
Yep, always very good advice.
Just because there is a game on the schedule does not require us to force a bet. Either one has a *SIGNIFICANT* edge with good odds to justify a risk or PASS! There's always more games again tomorrow...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Thursday, May 21: NY/WASH ov 8.0 -104 @pinn LEANING DBACKS if I can get much cheaper odds in live play without undue risk...
LIVE BET, no score top 5th inning, corners, 1 out: DBACKS -120 @pinn
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Thursday, May 21: NY/WASH ov 8.0 -104 @pinn LEANING DBACKS if I can get much cheaper odds in live play without undue risk...
LIVE BET, no score top 5th inning, corners, 1 out: DBACKS -120 @pinn
@fubah2 Great advice never chase anything unless its your life and death not gambling look for the odds and capitalize on them. I've seen books make mistakes watch early years ago they had odds my book. OLG Lottery paid on hockey teams 8 -1. 9-1 etc One time they had posted a game played and people who got in were paid it wasn't up long though
Frequently the books are off, yes indeed!
2
Quote Originally Posted by trust-me:
@fubah2 Great advice never chase anything unless its your life and death not gambling look for the odds and capitalize on them. I've seen books make mistakes watch early years ago they had odds my book. OLG Lottery paid on hockey teams 8 -1. 9-1 etc One time they had posted a game played and people who got in were paid it wasn't up long though
I have Toronto as a borderline, possible "value bet" if I can get more plus $$$. The questionmark is which way RODON will swing: Back to his form as a GOOD pitcher like last year OR continue on current 2-game path of sub-par performances. Blue Jays should be OK on the mound and appear to have emerged from their batting slump, so this might well be another close, one-run game that could go either way - pending on RODON...Also, Yankees usually rebound from a poor performance...
If Jays can get more plus $$$ into the +130s then I might spring for a "value bet"
RODON managed a good outing, allowing only 6 on base and 1 ER thru 5 full.
I'll need to see more of his starts before betting on him....
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
I have Toronto as a borderline, possible "value bet" if I can get more plus $$$. The questionmark is which way RODON will swing: Back to his form as a GOOD pitcher like last year OR continue on current 2-game path of sub-par performances. Blue Jays should be OK on the mound and appear to have emerged from their batting slump, so this might well be another close, one-run game that could go either way - pending on RODON...Also, Yankees usually rebound from a poor performance...
If Jays can get more plus $$$ into the +130s then I might spring for a "value bet"
RODON managed a good outing, allowing only 6 on base and 1 ER thru 5 full.
I'll need to see more of his starts before betting on him....
Friday GOOD starters on shaky HOT STREAKS (which may end!):
ELDER (ATLA) .....10 starts w/o a bad outing....yet! Faces a GOOD Nats offense. MARTIN (CWS) .....9 starts w/o a bad outing....yet! Faces revived Giants offense.
Also, GOOD starters likely to rebound from bad outing last game:
deGROM (TEX) ...4 ER off 4 homers but only 4K gets to rebound against the weakass Angels
Could be more as I haven't gone thru all the matchups yet...
3
HEADS UP, astute colleagues!
Friday GOOD starters on shaky HOT STREAKS (which may end!):
ELDER (ATLA) .....10 starts w/o a bad outing....yet! Faces a GOOD Nats offense. MARTIN (CWS) .....9 starts w/o a bad outing....yet! Faces revived Giants offense.
Also, GOOD starters likely to rebound from bad outing last game:
deGROM (TEX) ...4 ER off 4 homers but only 4K gets to rebound against the weakass Angels
Could be more as I haven't gone thru all the matchups yet...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LEANING DBACKS if I can get much cheaper odds in live play without undue risk... LIVE BET, no score top 5th inning, corners, 1 out: DBACKS -120 @pinn
2 - 1 today
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LEANING DBACKS if I can get much cheaper odds in live play without undue risk... LIVE BET, no score top 5th inning, corners, 1 out: DBACKS -120 @pinn
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with 4 - 1 *BB 
NOTES: 
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