Despite the current odds, I have the Nats @Pitts game as a coin-flipper (albeit limited analysis base on extremely small sample sizes in various stats - which is why I normally avoid betting before MAY) However, on an experimental basis I am giving it a go this season. ALL posted bets will still count toward my record though itemized by pre and post May 01 bets.... From these very limited stats (subject to large variance) it appears Washington has the stronger offense, slightly, augmented further by their (small sample size stats!) against LEFTIES - where their bats lead the league in BA, OBP and are 2nd in OPS only to the Dodgers! Pirates are putting a reliever on the mound (Montgomery) with a BAD WHIP and a BAD ERA, who has similar BAD numbers with Tampa last year. In 74 appearances, all as a reliever. He is expected to give way for bulk relief by Mlodzinski - who is about average for a starter, with a low ERA but a BAD WHIP stat. NATS counter with IRVIN (Mister mediocre) He's had 2 decent starts this year and one bad one, albeit against the World Champs. With still small sample size stats to work with, it would appear the bullpens for this outing should be more or less equal (consider that Montgomery can't be used again if Mlodzinski gets in trouble) I make the overall matchup on the mound roughly even (give or take a little either way) but a slight edge in offense to the NATS! Of course anything can and will happen in sports, but again, operating on insufficient stats to make a well-informed analysis,
this game looks to be a coin-flipper.....50/50..... And my philosophy when betting moneylines is to take a significant DOG line when I can get it what is arguably at or very near a coin-flip... "value"bet .......My value bets typically win 50% of the time, but I'm always getting PLUS MONEY!
WASHINGTON +152 @pinn ......coin-flipper could just as easily LOSE but it's still good value going in at this price. *I already posted an over on my total of 8 runs (alt-line)
Similarly, I make the Angels/Yanks game a near coin-flipper too! But Anegls are getting LARGE PLUS MONEY in a game that arguably could go either way, 50/50 chance! It may not win for me but I have no regrets when I pick a significant PLUS MONEY "value" bet in a game that is or is damn close to a coin-flip! However rather than taking ANGELS on the moneyline, I like the added cushion of a full run when otherwise carries very low juice...
ANGELSin the outfield! +1.5 -117 RL @pinn
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Despite the current odds, I have the Nats @Pitts game as a coin-flipper (albeit limited analysis base on extremely small sample sizes in various stats - which is why I normally avoid betting before MAY) However, on an experimental basis I am giving it a go this season. ALL posted bets will still count toward my record though itemized by pre and post May 01 bets.... From these very limited stats (subject to large variance) it appears Washington has the stronger offense, slightly, augmented further by their (small sample size stats!) against LEFTIES - where their bats lead the league in BA, OBP and are 2nd in OPS only to the Dodgers! Pirates are putting a reliever on the mound (Montgomery) with a BAD WHIP and a BAD ERA, who has similar BAD numbers with Tampa last year. In 74 appearances, all as a reliever. He is expected to give way for bulk relief by Mlodzinski - who is about average for a starter, with a low ERA but a BAD WHIP stat. NATS counter with IRVIN (Mister mediocre) He's had 2 decent starts this year and one bad one, albeit against the World Champs. With still small sample size stats to work with, it would appear the bullpens for this outing should be more or less equal (consider that Montgomery can't be used again if Mlodzinski gets in trouble) I make the overall matchup on the mound roughly even (give or take a little either way) but a slight edge in offense to the NATS! Of course anything can and will happen in sports, but again, operating on insufficient stats to make a well-informed analysis,
this game looks to be a coin-flipper.....50/50..... And my philosophy when betting moneylines is to take a significant DOG line when I can get it what is arguably at or very near a coin-flip... "value"bet .......My value bets typically win 50% of the time, but I'm always getting PLUS MONEY!
WASHINGTON +152 @pinn ......coin-flipper could just as easily LOSE but it's still good value going in at this price. *I already posted an over on my total of 8 runs (alt-line)
Similarly, I make the Angels/Yanks game a near coin-flipper too! But Anegls are getting LARGE PLUS MONEY in a game that arguably could go either way, 50/50 chance! It may not win for me but I have no regrets when I pick a significant PLUS MONEY "value" bet in a game that is or is damn close to a coin-flip! However rather than taking ANGELS on the moneyline, I like the added cushion of a full run when otherwise carries very low juice...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Despite the current odds, I have the Nats @Pitts game as a coin-flipper (albeit limited analysis base on extremely small sample sizes in various stats - which is why I normally avoid betting before MAY) However, on an experimental basis I am giving it a go this season. ALL posted bets will still count toward my record though itemized by pre and post May 01 bets.... From these very limited stats (subject to large variance) it appears Washington has the stronger offense, slightly, augmented further by their (small sample size stats!) against LEFTIES - where their bats lead the league in BA, OBP and are 2nd in OPS only to the Dodgers! Pirates are putting a reliever on the mound (Montgomery) with a BAD WHIP and a BAD ERA, who has similar BAD numbers with Tampa last year. In 74 appearances, all as a reliever. He is expected to give way for bulk relief by Mlodzinski - who is about average for a starter, with a low ERA but a BAD WHIP stat. NATS counter with IRVIN (Mister mediocre) He's had 2 decent starts this year and one bad one, albeit against the World Champs. With still small sample size stats to work with, it would appear the bullpens for this outing should be more or less equal (consider that Montgomery can't be used again if Mlodzinski gets in trouble) I make the overall matchup on the mound roughly even (give or take a little either way) but a slight edge in offense to the NATS! Of course anything can and will happen in sports, but again, operating on insufficient stats to make a well-informed analysis, this game looks to be a coin-flipper.....50/50..... And my philosophy when betting moneylines is to take a significant DOG line when I can get it what is arguably at or very near a coin-flip... "value"bet .......My value bets typically win 50% of the time, but I'm always getting PLUS MONEY! WASHINGTON +152 @pinn ......coin-flipper could just as easily LOSE but it's still good value going in at this price. *I already posted an over on my total of 8 runs (alt-line) Similarly, I make the Angels/Yanks game a near coin-flipper too! But Anegls are getting LARGE PLUS MONEY in a game that arguably could go either way, 50/50 chance! It may not win for me but I have no regrets when I pick a significant PLUS MONEY "value" bet in a game that is or is damn close to a coin-flip! However rather than taking ANGELS on the moneyline, I like the added cushion of a full run when otherwise carries very low juice... ANGELS in the outfield! +1.5 -117 RL @pinn
Glad I took the RL instead of the ML on that "value" bet!
So I begin this season with my usual 50% at 1 - 1 +0.00u on "value" bets.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Despite the current odds, I have the Nats @Pitts game as a coin-flipper (albeit limited analysis base on extremely small sample sizes in various stats - which is why I normally avoid betting before MAY) However, on an experimental basis I am giving it a go this season. ALL posted bets will still count toward my record though itemized by pre and post May 01 bets.... From these very limited stats (subject to large variance) it appears Washington has the stronger offense, slightly, augmented further by their (small sample size stats!) against LEFTIES - where their bats lead the league in BA, OBP and are 2nd in OPS only to the Dodgers! Pirates are putting a reliever on the mound (Montgomery) with a BAD WHIP and a BAD ERA, who has similar BAD numbers with Tampa last year. In 74 appearances, all as a reliever. He is expected to give way for bulk relief by Mlodzinski - who is about average for a starter, with a low ERA but a BAD WHIP stat. NATS counter with IRVIN (Mister mediocre) He's had 2 decent starts this year and one bad one, albeit against the World Champs. With still small sample size stats to work with, it would appear the bullpens for this outing should be more or less equal (consider that Montgomery can't be used again if Mlodzinski gets in trouble) I make the overall matchup on the mound roughly even (give or take a little either way) but a slight edge in offense to the NATS! Of course anything can and will happen in sports, but again, operating on insufficient stats to make a well-informed analysis, this game looks to be a coin-flipper.....50/50..... And my philosophy when betting moneylines is to take a significant DOG line when I can get it what is arguably at or very near a coin-flip... "value"bet .......My value bets typically win 50% of the time, but I'm always getting PLUS MONEY! WASHINGTON +152 @pinn ......coin-flipper could just as easily LOSE but it's still good value going in at this price. *I already posted an over on my total of 8 runs (alt-line) Similarly, I make the Angels/Yanks game a near coin-flipper too! But Anegls are getting LARGE PLUS MONEY in a game that arguably could go either way, 50/50 chance! It may not win for me but I have no regrets when I pick a significant PLUS MONEY "value" bet in a game that is or is damn close to a coin-flip! However rather than taking ANGELS on the moneyline, I like the added cushion of a full run when otherwise carries very low juice... ANGELS in the outfield! +1.5 -117 RL @pinn
Glad I took the RL instead of the ML on that "value" bet!
So I begin this season with my usual 50% at 1 - 1 +0.00u on "value" bets.
WTiggers -121 @pinn WCubbies +122 @pinn WBraves -162 @pinn L SF/Cinci UNDER 10 -147 alt-total@pinn L Toro/Milw over 7 -144 alt-total@pinn WAstros -175 @pinn L Col/HOU over 8 -144 alt-total@pinn WPadres -109 @pinn L Wash/Pitt over 8 -185 alt-line@pinn L WASHINGTON +152 @pinn(value bet loss) WANGELS in the outfield! +1.5 -117 RL (value bet WIN)
6 - 5
Totals killed me. But anticipated this could happen working with insufficient stats during the first month of MLB. Too much variance.
Humping Day results:
WTiggers -121 @pinn WCubbies +122 @pinn WBraves -162 @pinn L SF/Cinci UNDER 10 -147 alt-total@pinn L Toro/Milw over 7 -144 alt-total@pinn WAstros -175 @pinn L Col/HOU over 8 -144 alt-total@pinn WPadres -109 @pinn L Wash/Pitt over 8 -185 alt-line@pinn L WASHINGTON +152 @pinn(value bet loss) WANGELS in the outfield! +1.5 -117 RL (value bet WIN)
6 - 5
Totals killed me. But anticipated this could happen working with insufficient stats during the first month of MLB. Too much variance.
Thursday, April 16 . . . still toiling in my "experimental phase" of this season
(ie, I almost NEVER bet in the first 4 weeks due to insufficient stats needed in my handicapping method....but this year I am experimenting with it. Smallish bets though. As always it is listed pitchers at the time of my bets and despite the fact I vary my actual bet size, for skill-assessment purposes all bets counted per one unit)
CLEVELAND -121 @pinn ...6:10 ET start
Thursday, April 16 . . . still toiling in my "experimental phase" of this season
(ie, I almost NEVER bet in the first 4 weeks due to insufficient stats needed in my handicapping method....but this year I am experimenting with it. Smallish bets though. As always it is listed pitchers at the time of my bets and despite the fact I vary my actual bet size, for skill-assessment purposes all bets counted per one unit)
WEISS, the starter for Houston tonight, a reliever hoping to last several innings, has allowed 16 on base over only 5 ip the last two games, including 10 on base and 6 ER in just 2.2 ip @Colorado!
That and the whole ASTROS pitching staff is listing heavily due to so many injuries.
WEISS, the starter for Houston tonight, a reliever hoping to last several innings, has allowed 16 on base over only 5 ip the last two games, including 10 on base and 6 ER in just 2.2 ip @Colorado!
That and the whole ASTROS pitching staff is listing heavily due to so many injuries.
Seemed likely. Was considering the Col/HOU game using an over 8.0 alt-line but based on recent results with totals in this first month I backed off......Of course that means it's likely to go over now....sigh....
Quote Originally Posted by finsterbaby:
Fub, looks like the OVER is the play.
Seemed likely. Was considering the Col/HOU game using an over 8.0 alt-line but based on recent results with totals in this first month I backed off......Of course that means it's likely to go over now....sigh....
Was considering the Col/HOU game using an over 8.0 alt-line but based on recent results with totalsin this first month I backedoff......Of course that means it's likely to go over now....sigh....
Nope. It would have been a losing total had i bet it. Just like the other game today.
By backing away from betting totals based on a bad losing record, I just saved myself from 2 more losses!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Was considering the Col/HOU game using an over 8.0 alt-line but based on recent results with totalsin this first month I backedoff......Of course that means it's likely to go over now....sigh....
Nope. It would have been a losing total had i bet it. Just like the other game today.
By backing away from betting totals based on a bad losing record, I just saved myself from 2 more losses!
Thursday, April 16 . . . still toiling in my "experimental phase" of this season (ie, I almost NEVER bet in the first 4 weeks due to insufficient stats needed in my handicapping method....but this year I am experimenting with it. Smallish bets though. As always it is listed pitchers at the time of my bets and despite the fact I vary my actual bet size, for skill-assessment purposes all bets counted per one unit) CLEVELAND -121 @pinn ...6:10 ET start
WINNER!
For Friday: (overnight lines)
CUBBIES -133 @pinn
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Thursday, April 16 . . . still toiling in my "experimental phase" of this season (ie, I almost NEVER bet in the first 4 weeks due to insufficient stats needed in my handicapping method....but this year I am experimenting with it. Smallish bets though. As always it is listed pitchers at the time of my bets and despite the fact I vary my actual bet size, for skill-assessment purposes all bets counted per one unit) CLEVELAND -121 @pinn ...6:10 ET start
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Thursday, April 16 . . . still toiling in my "experimental phase" of this season (ie, I almost NEVER bet in the first 4 weeks due to insufficient stats needed in my handicapping method....but this year I am experimenting with it. Smallish bets though. As always it is listed pitchers at the time of my bets and despite the fact I vary my actual bet size, for skill-assessment purposes all bets counted per one unit) CLEVELAND -121 @pinn ...6:10 ET start
WINNER!
For Friday: (overnight lines)
CUBBIES -133 @pinn
Cleveland -129 @pinn
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Thursday, April 16 . . . still toiling in my "experimental phase" of this season (ie, I almost NEVER bet in the first 4 weeks due to insufficient stats needed in my handicapping method....but this year I am experimenting with it. Smallish bets though. As always it is listed pitchers at the time of my bets and despite the fact I vary my actual bet size, for skill-assessment purposes all bets counted per one unit) CLEVELAND -121 @pinn ...6:10 ET start
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Thursday, April 16 . . . still toiling in my "experimental phase" of this season (ie, I almost NEVER bet in the first 4 weeks due to insufficient stats needed in my handicapping method....but this year I am experimenting with it. Smallish bets though. As always it is listed pitchers at the time of my bets and despite the fact I vary my actual bet size, for skill-assessment purposes all bets counted per one unit) CLEVELAND -121 @pinn ...6:10 ET start WINNER! For Friday: (overnight lines) CUBBIES -133 @pinn Cleveland -129 @pinn
BRAVES -108 @pinn *Best Bet ....but if you tail BET SMALL!!!!
Although working with high variance stats which could be way off, from what I see thus far, Atlanta has the better offense by about a full run rpg, the better starter, and backed-up by a much better BP......plus the team as a whole is just better! And the juice here is very low risk!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Thursday, April 16 . . . still toiling in my "experimental phase" of this season (ie, I almost NEVER bet in the first 4 weeks due to insufficient stats needed in my handicapping method....but this year I am experimenting with it. Smallish bets though. As always it is listed pitchers at the time of my bets and despite the fact I vary my actual bet size, for skill-assessment purposes all bets counted per one unit) CLEVELAND -121 @pinn ...6:10 ET start WINNER! For Friday: (overnight lines) CUBBIES -133 @pinn Cleveland -129 @pinn
BRAVES -108 @pinn *Best Bet ....but if you tail BET SMALL!!!!
Although working with high variance stats which could be way off, from what I see thus far, Atlanta has the better offense by about a full run rpg, the better starter, and backed-up by a much better BP......plus the team as a whole is just better! And the juice here is very low risk!
Nationals +138 @FD "Value bet" ...it's a virtual coin-flip; Giants likely better on the mound + BP but maybe the NATS strong edge at the plate might tip the scales....regardless, getting solid plus money vs a GIANTS team that struggles to score runs makes this a worthy "value bet"
If Webb has a decent game this is low scoring...
Nationals +138 @FD "Value bet" ...it's a virtual coin-flip; Giants likely better on the mound + BP but maybe the NATS strong edge at the plate might tip the scales....regardless, getting solid plus money vs a GIANTS team that struggles to score runs makes this a worthy "value bet"
However rather than taking ANGELS on the moneyline, I like the added cushion of a full run when otherwise carries very low juice...
TY, sir...and BoL with YOUR bets tonight! 
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