🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

YTD ending June 24, was my MLB lowest point in decades:

      74 - 71   -19.03u
O/U: 20 - 12   [5 - 3 overs]          [14 - 21 *BB]

 Posted bets since June 24: 

   88 - 39   +41.26u
O/U: 24 - 8  [16 - 2 overs!!]    [24 - 13 *BB]

@fubah2

 Locked in 

. Humping day, JULY 23 

  HOT STREAK WARNING!!

                                 STRIDER,  Braves

         This STARTER is riding a tenuous  8-game  HOT STREAK, 

                    WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

          ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

  My capping indicates:

Cinci/WASH   coin-flipper at 4.0 estimated runs apiece

SD/Miami    coin-flipper at 3.9 estimated runs apiece

NYMets have a half/run edge but not worth the HEAVY ml odds or RL!

Braves have a half/run edge but not worth the HEAVY odds....besides, STRIDER is on a HOT STREAK warning

I continue to avoid DETROIT games as they are in a slump but are a good team that could bust out any day

@fubah2

 Im playing pitts Washington houston today sir detroit is in a bad funk with a new pitcher today could get ugly?

@trust-me

 Yeah, those look good!  

@fubah2

 Thank you Sir Not trying to outshine you no worry.You have me beat my miles in knowledge sir wish i was a good at it as you sir.

The Myth

The Legend

Despite facing a very GOOD starter in LUGO (and coming off a bad outing! = rebound anticipated) I still give the Cubbies a +0.5 run edge....but that's too small to justify today's HEAVY HOME FAV odds....same for the RL...

Likewise for the METS

The ml price for CARDS is too high, imo, as they have just a +1.0 run edge.

However I am considering the UNDER 11.0 since my capping suggests - with a slight breeze drifting IN, a most likely O/U range of 8 to 12

Is the blister on NYY FRIED's throwing hand fully healed 100%?

That's significant.

Otherwise I have this game rated a coin-flipper with 4.2 runs apiece and Toronto getting the plus money "value"

I have the artful DODGERS listed with a decent +0.8 run edge today vs Paddack - who is a mediocre starter and coming off two consecutive poor outings - now facing a potent LAD batting order.  BUT the damn ml is over-priced of course and not worth my risk. 

I might like the OVER 9 though ....but it depends.....for now I have the game pinpointed at 9.2 runs and most likely total range 8, 9 or 10, BUT NOT YET COUNTING THE WIND FACTOR!

  How significant is today's breeze in LA, supposedly blowing out to centre-right, and supposedly increasing as the game goes on??? Personally I don't know how significant the wind plays there during day games.  Should be about 9 mph by the time they get into the bullpens, but is 8.5 to 9 mph enough to add a run to my estimation?

If so, then over 9.0 looks to be worthy.    Otherwise, no.

I have the Brewers/Mariners game rated another coin-flipper,

and a most likely total around 7.5 runs (not enough margin for an over 7)

Blew up his HOT STREAK.....allowing 9 on and 2 homers in 5.0 ip

....but they are getting BEATEN UP by the lowly Pirates, again...

I have HOUSTON with a half-run edge (Walter/Pfaadt) 

and they are getting decent PLUS MONEY

Even match at the plate (I believe) and roughly even starters.....but what likely puts Arizona at a disadvantage is bullpen comparison.  Anything can happen in baseball, but there is a significant difference in the bullpen strengths (or lack thereof)

@fubah2

 Pitts Killing my slumped up team bad. But im not been betting them as much more on pitts burg like today when will it end? Once they return home regroup.

I have TAMPA only with a miniscule edge over the mighty WhiteSox....clearly not enough for me to justify risking HEAVY HOME FAV odds! 

I am still considering if I want to bet the under 9.0, since I have the game pinpointed at 7.9 runs

 Yeah  it almost seems like you got an easy win there. LOL

As for the Tiggers, yeah I agree.....they likely have a heart-to-heart and regroup in Comerica, where they are 32 - 18....albeit facing a VERY GOOD Toronto squad who may be above them in the standings by then....

@fubah2

 Time will tell but they been on road for a minute for sure.. Toronto usally gives them fits too! 

@fubah2

 I think I heard Braves have poor record when he pitches… but did win last time I think.   

  Sports-gambling on MLB is is comparable to
walking up to a game of "3-card Monte" on a NY street,
where, shockingly, everyone standing around the table
seems to be winning!!

The dealer invites you to try your luck - and surprise you win your first try! 

Now convinced that YOU can beat the game,
you raise the stakes to $100 for the next try...

 Good luck, dude... LOL 

It’s an extremely long season so one has to be really dialed in and wait for strong situations. Games have far less meaning and any pitcher can have a bad day and relieve pitchers can kill you. I bet very small for fun unless I love something. What am going do , talk to my wife ?””” 

On top of that, Goldschmidt, Wells and Stanton are OUT tonight for NYY

Humping Day, July 23:

Wasn't sure if I would venture any bets on series finale day, and this may blopw up in my face "bigly" but ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances 

Cleveland -121 @pinn  *BB    ...I have them with a full run edge here

BoSox +144  @pinn  *BB    ...actually I have BoSox with a half-run edge!

May be right about that.