10:10 EST - Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Go get em tomorrow Si1ly!  I told you I had concerns about Greinke on the road, but ran with you anyway because I believe in your capping abilities.  Bump in the road buddy. 

next time when you put up stats, make sure you include that greinke sucks on the road and he 0-2 with a 6.00 era against arizona! this way you won't lead everybody down the wrong road!

Guys, take it easy!!!! Sily is a good capper it's one effing game.

Write-ups are a way of explaining to the covers community the logic behind my bet.  I let my posted winning percentage sell itself.  What people chose to do with my wager or the information I provide is totally up to them.  I only win or lose my own money.

I don't put a ton of stock in home/road performance.  It's baseball, it's not like the NBA where home court means a lot.  If Greinke continues to stay high on my SABRmetric rankings, I will be backing him again on the road.

10:10 EST - Milwaukee Brewers (-125) 

Miley started his regression but man did Greinke suck this one up!  Baseball is a long season, I certainly don't expect to win them all.  There will be plenty of times where the game doesn't even come close to going as I predicted... lets just hope that happens less than the times that it does.


'11-12 MLB:  3-2 (54.4%)  +0.43u

Yes, I have to admit this one hurt, but still in the plus +++ and that's all that matters. THANK YOU si1ly!!!

The fucking tolerance you need to post on these forums is just getting ridiculous.

baseball is 95% luck...10 % skill

Whoever is luckier on the day wins..

just got to ignore some posts and posters. gl

I don't see how you can't put much stock in home/road performance when his stats clearly show he's a much better pitcher at home than on the road since joining the National League.  Even if you discount the splits, athletes naturally feel more comfortable at home and have particular routines they fall into, not to mention the confines of stadiums having an effect on performance as well. 

I like your write-ups and feel you do a good job of providing in-depth analysis.  I'm just puzzled as to why you'd be so dismissive of splits for statistics.  There's definitely relevance to them.

When I say I don't put a lot of stock into home/road splits, doesn't mean I don't look at them at all... it just means that when the bet looks good enough on paper otherwise, I don't let poor road splits, or great home splits influence me otherwise.  There are many more aspects to handicapping a baseball game that are more important in the hierarchy of sabrmetric handicapping.

I agree with everything you're saying though.  It does make a difference, just not as much in baseball as other sports, and not enough to sway me to the other side.  If anything I might lay off a wager I liked because of poor road splits or whatever.. but tonight the numbers presented themselves in such a way that it didn't seem to matter.  Clearly it did, but hindsight is always 20-20.  I didn't think it would make that much of a difference given the fact that I thought Miley would implode tonight.  I didn't even think Greinke needed to pitch that great of a ballgame.  Just so happened he pitched horribly.  Tough shit, time to move on.

Speaking of moving on... here's tomorrow's card for those of you scalping the best lines:

TEXAS RANGERS -1 (-142)

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (-110)


Leaning on COLORADO +141 and CLE@CHW OVER 9.

GL Si1ly 

I bet AZ. Grienke normally sucks on the road and figured his luck had run its course.  That means everyone who bet Manurewaulkie =

Don't forget Wash. When Chipper doesn't play they are 7-14 and with him they are 19-5

Best of luck today Si!ly!  Like the early card.

funny how smart people are after the game is played--get-em today