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'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u
'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P: 13-14-1 (48.8%) -1.40u
'11-12 MLB: 3-1 (75.0%) +1.68u
10:10 EST - Milwaukee Brewers (-125)
Continuing the theme I set last night of elite pitchers catching value on the road against over-rated pitchers due to regress. This line is quite the bargain. My SABRmetric model projects a 65.8% win-probability for the Brewers. The opening Vegas line of -125 suggests a 53.2% win-percentage and there are even more favorable lines available now. This type of discrepancy would usually warrant a 2-unit wager but I kept this only 1u for two reasons. First, the Brewers have never faced Miley before so the unfamiliarity factor is against us. Second, it's too early in the season for me to start throwing around rare 2-unit bets.. I'll give the SABRmetrics some more time to settle before I get comfortable dropping big coin on any single baseball game. Let's take a look at why the Brewers have such a big advantage. It begins with starting pitching. On the surface you might think Wade Miley is a pretty even match with Greinke, but that's far from true. Sure he has the 7th lowest ERA at 1.91, but his advanced predictors indicate he's due to regress (he ranks #84 in SIERA and #88 in xFIP). He's only average in terms of strikeout efficiency and he's below average in forcing grounders. All-in-all, Miley is my #69th ranked starting pitcher (a solid 2 / 3 spot in the rotation). On the other side of the mound Greinke sports a higher ERA than Miley, but his advanced numbers tell a very different story. He ranks #4 in SIERA, #3 in FIP, #3 in xFIP, #12 in K/BB and #25 in GB/FB. Not only does he have elite numbers in all of the key advanced statistical metrics, but he actually might improve on some of those numbers. His BABIP of .325 indicates that he's been unlucky with balls hit in play. For a guy that sits #1 among all starting pitchers, that's quite a statement. Not only do the Brewers have a big advantage in starting pitching, they have the edge in hitting splits too. They rank #9 against lefties (Miley is L) compared to #17 against righties. The reverse is true for Arizona who ranks #19 against righties (Greinke is R) and #10 against lefties. The bullpens are dead even but Arizona does have an advantage in fielding. Shouldn't be a big issue since Greinke is averaging a K per inning and keeping most balls in play on the ground. Despite only a 1.3:1 GB/FB ratio, Miley has benefited from the 13th lowest HR/FB ratio in the majors. Well, Milwaukee is ranked #7 in Power hitting (ISO) and he's throwing in the third most hitter-friendly park. I like Milwaukee to tear the cover off the ball tonight and send Miley's numbers north where they belong. Greinke should continue to be Greinke - a bonafide ace.
10:10 EST - Milwaukee Brewers (-125)
Continuing the theme I set last night of elite pitchers catching value on the road against over-rated pitchers due to regress. This line is quite the bargain. My SABRmetric model projects a 65.8% win-probability for the Brewers. The opening Vegas line of -125 suggests a 53.2% win-percentage and there are even more favorable lines available now. This type of discrepancy would usually warrant a 2-unit wager but I kept this only 1u for two reasons. First, the Brewers have never faced Miley before so the unfamiliarity factor is against us. Second, it's too early in the season for me to start throwing around rare 2-unit bets.. I'll give the SABRmetrics some more time to settle before I get comfortable dropping big coin on any single baseball game. Let's take a look at why the Brewers have such a big advantage. It begins with starting pitching. On the surface you might think Wade Miley is a pretty even match with Greinke, but that's far from true. Sure he has the 7th lowest ERA at 1.91, but his advanced predictors indicate he's due to regress (he ranks #84 in SIERA and #88 in xFIP). He's only average in terms of strikeout efficiency and he's below average in forcing grounders. All-in-all, Miley is my #69th ranked starting pitcher (a solid 2 / 3 spot in the rotation). On the other side of the mound Greinke sports a higher ERA than Miley, but his advanced numbers tell a very different story. He ranks #4 in SIERA, #3 in FIP, #3 in xFIP, #12 in K/BB and #25 in GB/FB. Not only does he have elite numbers in all of the key advanced statistical metrics, but he actually might improve on some of those numbers. His BABIP of .325 indicates that he's been unlucky with balls hit in play. For a guy that sits #1 among all starting pitchers, that's quite a statement. Not only do the Brewers have a big advantage in starting pitching, they have the edge in hitting splits too. They rank #9 against lefties (Miley is L) compared to #17 against righties. The reverse is true for Arizona who ranks #19 against righties (Greinke is R) and #10 against lefties. The bullpens are dead even but Arizona does have an advantage in fielding. Shouldn't be a big issue since Greinke is averaging a K per inning and keeping most balls in play on the ground. Despite only a 1.3:1 GB/FB ratio, Miley has benefited from the 13th lowest HR/FB ratio in the majors. Well, Milwaukee is ranked #7 in Power hitting (ISO) and he's throwing in the third most hitter-friendly park. I like Milwaukee to tear the cover off the ball tonight and send Miley's numbers north where they belong. Greinke should continue to be Greinke - a bonafide ace.
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