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wow, wtf. Machida is -475 vs Shogun on 5dimes

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by slipnslide:

HOLY SHIT...you people are fucking stupid.  "ohh lets parlay a bad bet with something else and it'll increase its value." 

parlay = less expected value (you are too stupid to understand the math behind it so im not going to waste my energy explaining)

retards damn you people make me so sick with your stupidity



Yeah save your time, I am way too stupid to understand some complex math model you have going on. Parlaying is the only way to make a significant amount of money in MMA. Betting $500 to win $100 just seems pointless and in the end, you will get burned. Also why is this a bad bet? Do you have inside info that tells you Shogun will win this fight? Oh wait nevermind, you probably have some math model that came out with Shogun winning this fight. Just look at Crowkillers plays, his parlays have allowed him to win money no matter what happens in the Shogun/Machida fight.

P.S. When you respond to this, please use smaller more simple words otherwise I will get confused because afterall I am too stupid.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by slipnslide:

HOLY SHIT...you people are fucking stupid.  "ohh lets parlay a bad bet with something else and it'll increase its value." 

parlay = less expected value (you are too stupid to understand the math behind it so im not going to waste my energy explaining)

retards damn you people make me so sick with your stupidity

I just got to laugh. Out of all of the People on this site that you could possibly bash about playing parlays, you actually pick one of the best guys that knows his shit and hits more parlays than you probably actually hit single bets.

Crow, don't pay any attention to this idiot, he got in way over his head here. I've read some of his posts and he thinks he is some kind of numbers crunching superhero.

By the way Slipyslide, after reading crow's plays, i got to ask you one thing, How does your foot taste?

 
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Posted: #28
slipnslide is right about playing parlays, but that pertains to sports like Baseball, Football, Basketball ect. But the only real way to make money in MMA is by parlaying.
 
I respect his opinions, but I didn't like being called a retard.
 
You may get to bet on a fighter, MAYBE 3 times a year. And if you want to bet on him, but he is -500, it can turn you off. But why not work out some better odds for him by mixing in some other fighters who are givens? like Jose Aldo was.
 
It's not like you get to bet on MMA everyday, so why not make it count when you can? I've been riding a bunch of Diego Sanchez and Nate Diaz Parlays since April. And I will make more to keep the parlays running into the next event and the next event and so on.
 
Plus there is nothing like making a smart Parlay on 4 or 5 Favs who you know are going to win and by the time the parlay is ready to hit, you have a -300 guy at +500. Then if you want, you can bet on his opponent at +250 or whatever and just sit back and enjoy.
 
By the way, nice Nate Diaz avatar Knish.
 
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Posted: #29
Absolutely anything can happen. Even with guys at these levels of their game. Shogun is good value at +400+. I will take a shot on him.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by slipnslide:

HOLY SHIT...you people are fucking stupid.  "ohh lets parlay a bad bet with something else and it'll increase its value." 

parlay = less expected value (you are too stupid to understand the math behind it so im not going to waste my energy explaining)

retards damn you people make me so sick with your stupidity

why don't dumb fvcks like you stay on Sherdog? You're probably nothing but a dissapointment as a capper, just like the loser in your av, who just hates on people that actually know what the fvck they're talking about.

 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by DTher85:



Yeah save your time, I am way too stupid to understand some complex math model you have going on. Parlaying is the only way to make a significant amount of money in MMA. Betting $500 to win $100 just seems pointless and in the end, you will get burned. Also why is this a bad bet? Do you have inside info that tells you Shogun will win this fight? Oh wait nevermind, you probably have some math model that came out with Shogun winning this fight. Just look at Crowkillers plays, his parlays have allowed him to win money no matter what happens in the Shogun/Machida fight.

P.S. When you respond to this, please use smaller more simple words otherwise I will get confused because afterall I am too stupid.

 

ok i just now got a chance to respond to all you idiotic parly supporters.  the only argument that kinda makes a little sense is the fact that there arent many MMA events to bet on so you dont get a chance to straight wager out many of them (which would earn you a higher EV than the parlay).  BUT having said that...if you are going into betting MMA with this mindset then you are going into it for pleasure only beacuse you are admittedly taking a lower EV for your MMA parlay. 

And for you luckycat22....you know nothing about me and it really doesnt matter my skills as a capper I am strictly talking about placing money into bad situations as being a horrible idea. 

BUT since you called me out I'll give you the skinny on why not to parlay....EVER.

 
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Posted: #32
for any sport where hitting 50% is the norm baskeball & football for example...your chances in winning 1 straight wager is 1/2....your chances of hitting a 2 team parlay is 1/2 x 1/2 or 1/4.  This concept extends on for larger parlays...3 team=1/8....4 team=1/16 and so on.
however you will NEVER receive close to the appropriate odds to make these plays.  you need to receive close to 4x your money (profiting 3 units on your posted 1) for an even wager on a 2 team parlay.  The book will only give you roughly 3x.  So thats a juice of 25% because 3 is 25% less than 4.  So by parlaying 2 teams together you have increased the normal -110 juice to -125. And of course when you add additional teams to the parlay the odds increase against you exponentially.  Expected value is the percentage of profit or loss on your money if you made a particular play an infinite number of times.  So if you were going to hit 50% on your plays at -110 you could expect to win 10games and lose 10games but lose 1 unit. 
 
More to come if you need it spelled out any more clearly. Just ask.
 
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Posted: #33
Fuckhead, we all know the math for parlaying sports, this is nothing new here. There is a HUGE difference when it comes to parlaying Boxing/MMA to other sports.
 
If you want to prove yourself, please be our guest and post your picks. I can't wait to see the Juice that you lay for a Huge Favorite just to win a couple of bucks.
 
I would rather follow Crowkiller's parlays and lay a small amount of money on 2 or 3 fighters to win just as much as you without the risk of losing as much.
 
So Mr Know-it-all, how do you make a bet on a -400 fighter? Bet on the underdog? Or Lay $400?
 
It took you 2 weeks to come back and hit us with your knowledge? And guess what, we are doing just fine and don't need any of your help.
 
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Posted: #34
Well theres really nothing I can say to convince you people from throwing your money away.  You say you understand the math behind what I'm trying to say but yet you continue to give the house an additional edge. 
 
Like I said before I can understand the idea of parlaying in MMA for the "fun" factor and because nobody wants to lay 4 dimes to win 1 but you can never make the case that it makes more sense or is more profitable or gives you better odds than straight wagering them all individually.  Its great for you that you have had success parlaying but if you really can hit that many parlays that means you are probably shooting somewhere around 70% which would be really sweet if you straight wagered them all. 
 
Parlay = worse odds = higher juice = lower ROI = lower EV
 
BUT it is more fun.  So ask yourself...hypothetically if there were as many MMA fights as baseball games in a season would you still take the same approach? I think all of you are smart enough to say no to that one.
 
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Posted: #35
Didn't we already establish that when Parlaying MMA/Boxing, you can't take the same approach as parlaying regular sports (Baseball, Basketball, Ect...)
 
Do me a favor and bump up all of crowkiller's threads where he posted at least 30 or 40 winning parlays this year and comment how stupid parlaying is in those threads.
 
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Posted: #36

You can take the same approach because its the same concept.  It lowers your expected profit over the long run.  Just because someone posts 30-40 winning parlays doesnt make parlaying a good idea.  Maybe hes just a good capper...or maybe he has put out 200 parlays and hit 30-40...i have no idea...and i really have no need to look into what im sure is his stellar results.  All i know is that in the long run many of his losing parlays would have been winning days had he straight wagered out everything.  AND IT IS THE SAME NO MATTER WHAT SPORT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.  Voluntarily reducing your EV =

Its all about EV...its all about EV...ok i think ive said it enough.

 
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Posted: #37
Yeah, you did say it enough....
 
 
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Posted: #38
bet your house on Machida cus he isn't loosing for along time.. Its the Machida Era pplzzz
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