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UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Bigfoot

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Posted: #1

UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Bigfoot

Date: Oct 05, 2012
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Venue: Target Center
Broadcast: FX and FUEL TV
  • Travis Browne vs. Antonio Silva
  • Jake Ellenberger vs. Jay Hieron
  • John Dodson vs. Jussier Formiga
  • Josh Neer vs. Justin Edwards
  • Yves Edwards vs. Jeremy Stephens
  • Danny Castillo vs. Michael Johnson
  • Dennis Hallman vs. Thiago Tavares
  • Shane Roller vs. Jacob Volkmann
  • Diego Nunes vs. Bart Palaszewski
  • Phil Harris vs. Darren Uyenoyama
  • Marcus LeVesseur vs. Carlo Prater
  • Mike Pierce vs. Aaron Simpson
 
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Posted: #2
i like roller via dec
i like the over 2.5 rds

i like castillo via dec
love the > 2.5 rds

i love darren via sub/dec
i would take < 2.5 rds 

i would take nunes via dec
i like the > 2.5 rds

i like tavares via tko
i like < 1.5 rds ... love < 2.5 rds w/e it's @

i would take pierce via dec/tko/ko
i like the > 2.5 rds

i would take jeremy via ko/tko/dec
i would like the > 2.5 rds

i would take dodson via dec/tko
i like > 2.5 rds 

i would take neer via dec/tko/sub
i would take the > 2.5 rds

i love ellenberger via ko/tko/dec
i like < 2.5 rds

i would take browne via ko/tko
i would take < 1.5 rds

 
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Posted: #3
***OOPS***

i like roller via dec
i like the over 2.5 rds

i like castillo via dec
love the > 2.5 rds

change that**

i would take roller via dec
i like the > 2.5 rds

i would take castillo via dec
i like the > 2.5 rds
 
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Posted: #4
Browne for me all day
 
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Posted: #5
 who's ready ?
 
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Posted: #6
top 3 chalk
=========
ellen
browne 
DU

after that i see the odds being fairly close for the rest. dodson has a chance of being fairly chalky i guess.
 
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Posted: #7
wars
====
  • Josh Neer vs. Justin Edwards
  • Yves Edwards vs. Jeremy Stephens
  • Danny Castillo vs. Michael Johnson
  • Diego Nunes vs. Bart Palaszewski
  • Mike Pierce vs. Aaron Simpson
 
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Posted: #8
Hard Caps
========
  • Yves Edwards vs. Jeremy Stephens
  • Danny Castillo vs. Michael Johnson
  • Shane Roller vs. Jacob Volkmann
  • Diego Nunes vs. Bart Palaszewsk
 
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Posted: #9
I think nunes and neer roll
 
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Posted: #10
I think Edwards is worth a play if he's at a good + number, Stephens hasn't looked very good against these quick, accurate strikers.  Cerrone, Pettis, Guillard.. plus Yves shoulda won that fight against Ferguson!

Kinda like Bigfoot, Browne just does not have a good gas tank and if Bigfoot manages to make this fight ugly, he could take over and GNP Browne to a stoppage/decision.

Also Ellenberger ITD just dropped to +156, pissed I haven't bet it already, I think it was like +300 a week or two ago
 
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Posted: #11
you're right about yves...if the odds are +++ on yves he's definitley worth the play. i actually pointed that out in my scouting notes.



Jeremy Stephens
+++++++++++++++
aggressive 
OK striker 
lack of combo's 
one punch ko power
hits hard
throws haymakers
decent td's
< avg TDD 
good chin 
ok cardio 
good sub D ??
risky if it's a point match. not active enough.
purp. belt jits

Yves Edwards
+++++++++++++
southpaw
semi-aggressive
good muay thai striker
good kicker
ok jits ???
semi-active guard
good at getting up from guard ???
suspect chin
weak tdd 
ok td's 
weak top control 
good cardio

 
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Posted: #12
scary fight regardless...these guys will exchange.

stephens could land on yves suspect chin, but yves is super technical compared to JS brawler haymaker style. 

could play out like
===============
pickett vs yves (one punch KO) JS wins
cerrone vs JS  (out classed striking) Yves wins
hath vs mcguire (grind out) JS wins
 
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Posted: #13
Phil Harris
++++++++++++
5'5
judo/boxer
counter puncher 
avg boxing ???
zero kicks
> avg jits ???
weak tdd 
active guard ???
good trips 
ok gnp'er ???
suspect chin ???

Darren Uyenoyama
+++++++++++++++++
world class grappler
plus jits
good high kick tech ??? but rarely thrown
throws punches to close the distance to clinch 
plus t/b ground control 
plus guard
good td ???
good gnp 
suspect chin ???
good sub d
avg tdd ??

 
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Posted: #14
Diego Nunes
++++++++++++
south paw mostly, fought florian and siver ortho
aggresssive ???
muay thai/ jits
point fighter
good striker 
good kicker
throws a lot of leg kicks
uses kicking range well
throws a lot of spinning stuff
good jits ???
does not really go for td
avg tdd 
avg guard 
good gnp  


Bart Palaszewski
+++++++++++++++++
50+ fight vet
good striker
hard puncher
hordeski out-pointed bart in standup nunes style
avg tdd 
good td ???
good sub d 
avg guard 
jits BB
abv avg chin ???

 
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Posted: #15
AARON SIMPSON
++++++++++++++
old
wrestler/boxer
does not want to stand
plus wrestling ???
ok striker 
good td 
ok chin 
good gnp
good clinch striker ???
< avg guard ???

Mike Pierce
++++++++++++
boxer/wrestler
aggressive 
good striker 
hits hard
good leg kicks
good td 
 > avg tdd ???
good cardio
good chin

 
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Posted: #16
Jussier da Silva 
+++++++++++++++++
grinder ??? 
counter-puncher
pillow fist ???
muay thai/jits 
< avg striker ???
tentative striker 
primary use of strikes to close the distance for clinch/shoot ?? 
good td ???
good jits 
good top control 
suspect chin ???
avg guard ???

John Dodson
++++++++++++
southpaw
decent striker 
hits hard
good jits ???
weak top control ??? 
good td 
ok tdd 
good at quickly getting up if td
good cardio
good chin

 
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Posted: #17
Justin Edwards
+++++++++++++++
grappler
good DL td in clinch 
avg striker 
avg cardio 
weak chin 
ok jits 
good top control ???
active guard
avg tdd 

JOSH NEER
++++++++++
boxer/ jits 
155 > 170 ???
aggressive 
ok striker 
so-so striking tech.
hits hard 
good jits 
good chin ???
active guard 
weak tdd 
good gnp

 
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Posted: #18
Antonio Silva
++++++++++++++
boxer/jits
semi-aggressive ???
big head = easy target
ok striker 
good gnp 
good jits 
avg guard 
avg td 
avg tdd 
poor head movement 
weak chin

Travis Browne
++++++++++++++
good footwork
decent striker 
sloppy striking technique
strikes at all angles
hits hard 
one punch ko power ????
good leg kicks
good chin 
ok td 
good top control
ok jits ???
ok gnp ???
cardio ???

 
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Posted: #19

Feel uncomfortable laying -300 on Ellenberger when he's already lost to Hieron (yes I know it was long time ago). Since Jake's had some issues with his gas tank, I could see Jay grinding out a boring decision or late TKO.

 
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Posted: #20
I like the fighter break downs, very nice.
 
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Posted: #21
lines haves opened 

nothing really surprising

volkmann and neer chalkier than i thought they would be 
 
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Posted: #22

my thoughts on volk and neer as well

I see you are leaning Roller, as am I. How do you think their wrestling stacks up? I'm thinking too even to make a difference. And I like Roller's standup better

 
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Posted: #23
roller is clearly the better striker, but volk is aggressive and could very well just move forward the whole fight looking for that TD. i dont have notes for this fight so i dont know anything about rollers tdd.  i could see it going either way.

roller/volk OTD  but its gonna be super chalky -300+
roller +160 good value to me..roller via dec. should be +200 better value..im going to watch this line to see which way it goes... who knows which way the money falls before this fight begins. if i see roller @ +200 im hitting it
 
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Posted: #24
Hail Mary (0.1u for 4.7u)
==================
browne
elle
neer
dod
js
cast
tt
nune
du
pierce

 
 
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Posted: #25
does 5 dimes have a parlay wager limit because i just reached my limit.

what does this mean ??? i can't make no more parlays ???
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