UFC on ESPN 14 (Whittaker vs Till)

Nathaniel Wood vs John Castaneda

NOT Wood Inside Distance -115 (**)
Castaneda +360 (**)

Castaneda hasn't been finished in his last 16 pro fights.  He's no rookie to fighting, won a DWCS fight in 2017 and has fought for Combate since.  Wood is decent, but he's too big of a favorite for this matchup and whoever knows me, knows I like fading guys that shouldn't be huge favorites.  Live dog here, IMO.

Ramazan Emeev vs Niklas Stolze

Emeev should win this fight, but he hasn't finished in his last four wins, and I have 0 interest chasing a price with Stolze.  He used to be a trainer partner of McGregor, but not interested tonight.  

Bethe Correia vs Pannie Kianzad

Correia +150 (**)

I don't really get this line.  I know Correia is 37, but her opponents are so much better than Kianzad's.  

Correia last 5:
W vs Eye
Draw vs Reneau
L vs Holm
L vs Aldana
W vs Eubanks

Jessica Avila is a beast, but that fight wasn't even close.  Kianzad is coming off of a win vs Jessica Rose Clark and looked good, but Correia is a step up, and I don't know if Kianzad is on that level right now.

Tanner Boser vs Raphael Pessoa

Pessoa +235 (**)
Pessoa +3.5 +125 (*)
Pessoa Wins by Decision +575 (*)

I hit Boser big vs Lins.  Pessoa is much better than Lins though.  This line is very silly, IMO.  Boser is fun, but this is very close to 50-50, IMO.  Pessoa may even be the better fighter.

What's this one Papa?  Apologies for the interruption, just not sure what the bet is exactly. 

Movsar Evloev vs Mike Grundy

Grundy +165 (**)
Grundy Wins by Decision +300 (**)


Another fight I think is much closer to 50-50 so need to take this dog, especially when I think the dog has slight edges.  Evloev hasn't impressed me that much.  He had a good fight with Barzola, but I think he lost that fight.  I think Grundy is the better wrestler and will do enough to win.  

Tom Aspinall vs Jake Collier

Aspinall Wins in Round 1 +200 (**)
Aspinall Wins in Round 2 +400 (*)
Aspinall Wins in Round 3 +850 (1/2*)


Collier looked like a mess on the scale.  If he survives, I'll take the L.

Nicolas Dalby vs Jesse Ronson

Passing on this fight.  Should be a fun fight if Dalby doesn't go to the ground.  Ronson can bang on the feet.

Francisco Trinaldo vs Jai Herbert

Herbert +100 (***)


Trinaldo missed weight badly yesterday.  I can't remember him ever missing weight and he even took most of the allotted time.  It seems like the 41 year old could act be on his way out.  I'm hoping that's the case and have been impressed watching Herbert's fights.  Herbert is really nice on the feet and if he can allude the takedowns, will throw enough volume to win this fight.

Khamzat Chimaev vs Rhys McKee

Needed Chimaev in the 1st round last fight and he ended up finishing Phillips in the 2nd.  John Phillips is terrible and washed up.  Rhys McKee is a 24 year old prospect on a 3 fight winning streak, all finishes.  McKee actually KOd Herbert in 2016.  Chimaev should win this fight, but these odds are stupid.

McKee +780 (1/2*)
McKee Wins Inside Distance +960 (1/2*)

Alex Oliveira vs Peter Sobotta

Sabotta +125 (**)
Sabotta Wins Inside Distance +300 (*)

Paul Craig vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov

Staying away from this one.  Should be a WILD fight.

Carla Esparza vs Marina Rodriguez

Fight Won't go Distance +275 (*)


Just going with my gut that this somehow doesn't go the distance.  

Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Gustafsson

Werdum +280 (**)
Werdum Wins by Decision +1000 (1/2*)

Shogun Rua vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Passing on this slop fest.  Should be fun.

Good luck papa on aspinall money line for 4K, got it at -235 on Wednesday, also on jai. Let’s make some money 

Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till

I bet Whittaker vs Brunson, Jacare, and then twice vs Romero before I pulled the plug and pounded Adesanya against him.  I'm going against Whittaker again tonight.  Bottom line is that I think Whittaker is too wild for Till's striking.  I'm not sure Whittaker is all there mentally.  He seems to be trying to talk himself into whatever he's been saying this week without actually believing it.  That Adesanya loss was devastating and I think Till will do it again.  I think Till finishes Whittaker tonight.

Till +125 (****)
Till Wins Inside Distance +320 (*)
Till Wins in Round 1 +1000 (1/4*)
Till Wins in Round 2 +1200 (1/2*)
Till Wins in Round 3 +1400 (1/4*)

Love them all except Werdum, he looked incredibly slow against Oleinik, Gus is way sharper than Aleksei. Didn’t bet it hopefully you win. 

Damn.  Boser looked good again, too fast.  That was a weird finish but a miss from me.

Odds on Herbert have already swung the other way and he is the favorite

Not my night tonight.  Herbert was -2000 going to the 3rd and gets KOd.  I was able to get a little back on Trinaldo +700 but that stung.

I had 10 units on Herbert smh

Does anyone know what odds were on Chimaev 1st round win?

Also Papa curious what you think Chimaev's potential is at welterweight? Haven't seen how he handles striking standing up and obviously against the better/stronger guys he won't be able to just throw them around like rag dolls.