UFC FN for Nov 7 & 8

9-5 +5.0 posted

Plays between 0-2.

To start, I'm just posting some leans and some thoughts along with the lines available. I really like a lot of the short faves and I'm trying to figure these plays out because, typically, betting a bunch of short faves is a losing strategy. This first post will just address the Rockhold/Bisping card.

Leans only so far. I will update with plays as the week goes on. First, the short faves:

Dylan Andrews -165 over Sam Alvey
Andrews is the better striker in a fight that will likely be 100% striking. Sam likes to use his size as a MW to bully his opponents (6'2"). Andrews is good in the clinch and big himself (6'1"). Andrews is more technical, Alvey swings big looping punches.

Guto Inocente -185 over Perosh
These are fairly similar fighters and both likely cut with a loss. I prefer the younger guy (28 vs 42) with the better camp. The best chance to win for Perosh is by sub, and I just don't see the chance happening here. I also think Perosh will retire after the fight.

Soa Palelei -165 over Walt Harris
The better bet may be under on this fight or Soa inside 2 rounds, etc. Soa is better everywhere here. Walt has the old "puncher's chance" and he hits hard.

Clint Hester -175 over Robert Whitaker
I believe in the Hester hype. The guy has won 7 in a row and has improved his TDD to go with his slick boxing style. With his athleticism, we have seem big improvements in his overall game. I'm not sure if he'll ever be a title contender, but I think he'll be a top 10-15 for a few years. He's in the same realm of Costas and Tavares, IMO.

And the others:
Rockhold inside distance +100 over Bisping
Bisping likes to use straight punches and length to overwhelm his opponents. This is a horrible match-up with a guy who does the same and who his longer, hits harder, and has more options.

Al Iaquinta +155 over Pearson
Better range, creativity. Still looking at this one.

Clements +120 over Grujic
Clements should be favored here. Odd line, and it seems to be getting bet back. Just watching the line. I may bet this one soon just to get in on + money.


Brimage/Tuerxen over 2.5 -185
Brimage by wrestle-fest.

Any thoughts or discussion, I'm all ears.

I'm with you on Palelei, Hester, Brimage and the over 2½ in the Brimage fight- I already bet these.  Like you I'm considering Iaquinta and Clements as underdogs.

I'd favor Andrews because of his size but am concerned about his previous shoulder injury and in case Alvey manages to put on a better performance than last time in his debut UFC fight. I also think that Anthony Perosh might just be able to pull something off here like he did against Vinny Magalhaes.

As far as the main event, Rockhold should win, but with the ITD line already slightly in the negative, I'm not that eager to bet it. I might put a few bucks on Rockhold wins in round 1 and by decision since those are the only two ways he wins a fight- check his record.

Hey O, are you surprised by the Pearson line dropping??? I'm pretty sure neither guy is gonna wrestle but I always thought Pearson was a better boxer.

Jim - good point on Andrews. The injury is definitely not something I had considered. On Rockhold, I'd still like the cushion of 5 rounds. I think Bisping is tough and durable and may be able to last a few rounds, but we'll see.

Ferrari - like other sports, it's either big money coming in on Al, or they have some inside info on Ross (bad cut, sick, broke up with the ol' ball and chain, etc.) either way, I'm leaning Al pretty big at this point.

Btw, for his sake, I hope he didn't lose the girl - https://www.titocouture.com/ross-pearson-gets-engaged-to-model-girlfriend/

The leans for the other cards. Not much time this evening for write-ups but hopefully I'll get back to them later this week.

OSP +160 over Shogun
Ian McCall -175 over Lineker

Alves -240 over Jouban
Magalhaes -225 over Smith
Probably a parlay

Jorge "Blade" Oliveira +250 over Lima
Brenneman +150 over Silva

That's a lot of dogs barking Saturday night O???

Yeah just good match-ups. Shoguns only shot is his power but OSP has a good chin and great top control. Blade is a debuter but is a great striker (fought multiple years in high level kickboxing), 7-0 as a pro all first round finishes. And brenneman is going against a Jiu jitsu first grappler - Charlie by take down all night.

I got no issue with it. Got called a idiot before you joined for playing too many dogs!!! I like this Colby Covington, fights a decent guy, should be a good scrap!!!

O, I was leaning McCall moneyline at -175 but the over 2½ is nearly the same at only -185 so I bet that because Ian is a decision machine who has also never been knocked out. So the over allows for a lot more possibilities like a late third round stoppage or decision either way.


For the Brazilian card I also like Magalhaes & Alves as favorites and Brenneman as a dog. I'm waiting to see if the OSP line improves even more before I pull the trigger there. 

Hey Jim, any chance you throw them Brazil lines out, no o/u, my sites don't have them yet!!!

BestFightOdds.com is a great resource that has many of the major sportsbooks' lines on MMA and even little graphs that show the line movement.

Yeah, I love bestfightodds. I post from my phone mostly so I have that as a screen all the time.

Jim, I love that over. I didn't have that available yet but that's a steal. Flyweights have such a low stop % anyway - plus on top of that, McCall almost always goes decision win or lose.

And Ferrari - I always start the card with dogs. I go down the card and circle the dogs I like, then look at them and scratch the ones off that have had a bad couple fights, who have something in their recent history I'm concerned with, etc. after that, I move on to faves, then O/Us, then props.

Also, look at MR on this site - roughly 50% and up pretty big over 5 years or something. He's doing it picking the right dogs. You can't reach on dogs, but you can't win without them.

Hey O, do you only bet on MMA??? You seem to have good knowledge of the fight game!!!

Thanks a lot Jim, I get wound up in CFB I totally forgot that side. I'd say Rockhold is over valued now, WOW!!!

for osp vs shogun, I will take the mixte martial artist over the athlete in this one.

1st angle - osp leaves way to many oppenings and they are HUGE openings at that when he starts striking to not get caught by shogun.

2nd angle - the opponents both faced aren't even close in terms of quality, Its easy to look good and get away with things when you are facing lower competition

3rd angle - The late switch in adversaries might favor shogun. Shogun was preparing to face a way better striker that OSP but on the other end, osp was facing an opponent that was probably gonna try and take him down and has awful striking.

all that said , the damage that shogun took in recents fights does worry me

and for mcall I really see a win. but the operation he had in his hand, has cut at least 1 month and probably a half more of sparing, grappling, or any training involving that hand. that happened 2 month and a half ago so he may just had 1 month of full training camp, That his my only worry in that fight

I like Lineker in this fight, if he makes weight!!! Got no issues with Uncle Creepy though.

I just see OSP as a bad match-up for Shogun at this point in their careers. Shogun has fought the better fighters, he's the more well-rounded MMArtist, he's more experienced and beaten better opponents. But, let's see his recent record. Since '10, he's beaten Te Huna, Vera, and Forrest - All guys who want to stand but who all have suspect chins. 2 guys aren't in the ufc any more and one just got destroyed by a WW (Marquardt-Te Huna). OSP isn't afraid to clinch, drag, lay n' pray a win. He could get caught, but he's also went the distance with Gegard who I think is a much better technical striker. I think OSP surprises some people here, but I've been wrong before!

Alright, here's my plays for tomorrow guys. GL to you all. I appreciate all the feedback, it's definitely raised some thoughts whether we agree or not - that's what it's all about.

9-5 +5.0 posted

Clements +125 over Grujic 2 to win 2.5
Iaquinta +130 over Pearson 1 to win 1.3
Rockhold inside distance -150 over Bisping 1.5 to win 1
Hester - Inocente parlay 1 to win 1.2

Be back with the others tomorrow or Saturday.

I bet a football game here and there but I've found that I sit on my butt all weekend if I try to get into too much.

The other sports (hoops, bases, hockey) are tough unless you can focus several hours a day for months at a time and I can't.

I love MMA. A little back story. I'm in my early 30s. On the day of the columbine shooting, I was a high school sophomore and we got let out a day because, if you remember, people were flipping out (for good reason, but nowadays it's just "another school shooting"...sad). Anyway, we went to a buddy's house and, as it was 4/20, we burned a few and watched ufc 1 on a recorded VHS. I wrestled in high school and a bit in college, and quit when I was 20, finished college, went into the corporate world and basically became a lazy couch potato by 25. I saw a buddy who fights at a bar one night all ripped up, me with my fat beer belly and he told me to get back "OnTheO" - what we called a wrestling mat in high school because it was a big circle O. A week later I was back on the mats. I've never fought, but I teach wrestling at an mma school, train Jiu jitsu, and have sparred a lot. I'm leaving to grapple here in about 15 minutes - I love it. Besides my family, it's my biggest passion. That's probably more than you needed but that's me.

great story. love what you do. I trained mma before I blew my knee. its really my life passion.

Great story, exactly what I wanted to read. I'll be able to understand your gambling angles more. Now when you play your unit plays, are they for hundreds or slightly less??? Like Jim Gunn plays crazy money but I get his style. I respect a guy more if he says I'm playing for 10 than a 1000 a unit.

That's sucks Wiz, well at least you can bet and argue on it, lol.