UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate

YTD 61-78 +11.45 units 

Another solid weekend   

Will look too keep things rolling this week. 

I will post insight and picks as the week roles on. 

GL ALL 

Pinheiro vs Hughes 

Opening fight on a decent card. Pinheiro returning after winning a DQ back in May. She is a very good striker with solid power. She also has solid take downs and is very good on the ground and will be looking for submissions. In her last fight before it was stopped via DQ, she was dominating her opponent with 5 take downs in just over 4 minutes of action. I think she will use that game plan in this fight also. Hughes looking for her first UFC win, and it will be a tall task here. She is a solid striker, with an average skill set. She likes too march forward and pressure her opponent, which might open up some take down opportunities for Pinheiro. Her striking deference is below average which also could be a problem against someone like Pinheiro. I don't see many ways for Hughes too secure a victory, and at -350 I think the odds makers have this right. 

Nuerdanbieke vs Soriano 

Interesting fight here. Soriano back in the UFC for the second time in his career. Back in 2014/2015 he went 0-3 before getting cut. He fought back in May and also lost, which makes him 0-4 in the UFC. He is Power puncher with solid hand speed. He has solid kicks and is a well rounded fighter, but for some reason in the UFC he has not had much luck. Nuerdanbieke making his 2nd appearance in the UFC after losing his debut back in May. He likes to grapple his opponents and control them against the Cage. He will look too work in take downs once he gets control and if he gets on top he has very heavy top control. He also has solid power with his striking. At +225 I lean Nuerdanbieke, and I also like this fight too go the distance at +105. I will monitor this as the week goes on before making an official play. 

Durden vs Aori 

Another interesting match up. Durden returning after that wild submission loss about a year ago. Durden is a wrestler, who is always looking to grapple and get the fight too the ground. His relentless take down attempts wear his opponents down as the fight goes on, so it will be interesting too see how Aori handles that. He uses big shots too close the distance and work his way into his take down attempts. Aori lost hus UFC debut back in April against a very good opponent. He is a solid striker with good movement and footwork. He will need his movement in this fight to keep Durden thinking and off balance in order too keep his distance. He is willing too grapple and is OK on the ground, but too win this fight, I think he will look too keep it standing. His take down defense will be the X factor in this fight.  I lean Aori in this fight at + money, but I'm not ready too pull the trigger just yet. 

McKinney vs Ziam 

This should be a fun fight. Both fighter's are solid. McKinney is coming off that 7 second KO back in June. His last 4 fights have resulted in 1st round KO's. He is a long fighter who will look too keep his range & has solid power. What people may not know is he is also a very good wrestler, and he might just use that in this fight. Ziam riding a 2 fight win streak, will also look too keep things rolling. He is a very technical fighter with good fight IQ. He also likes too fight at range and pick his shots. He has solid kicks and good solid clinch work. He has shown hes vulnerable to the take down, and I see that being the X factor here. I think McKinney will look too overwhelm Ziam early, and get this fight too the ground and control Ziam. I like McKinney at even money here with his wrestling being the X factor. 

Lookboonmee vs Godinez 

Another short notice fight for Godinez. This is her 3rd fight in just over a month, 2 being short notice. Her last fight was a weight class up, this fight she will return to 115. She is big for this weight class, and uses that size well. She is a solid striker and very good wrestler. She likes too use her striking too mix things up and eventually take her opponents down and bully them. Lookboonmee is coming off a victory in her last match. She is a good striker with very good volume. Opposite too Godinez, she is small for the weight class & I think the size disadvantage could cause her issues in this fight. I think Godinez will look too bully Lookboonmee on the ground and grind out a victory here. I like Godinez but I will wait and see if the ML comes down a bit. Another option is Godinez by decision at +115. I will monitor these lines as the week goes on before making a pick.  

Garcia vs Levy 

This should be another fun fight. Garcia still looking for his first UFC win. Garcia is well rounded fighter with solid striking & power and can also grapple and work well on the ground. He likes to mix things up and keep his opponent thinking. He has the clear experience advantage in this fight, and that could be the difference maker in this fight. The one issue that was very obvious in his last fight is his cardio. Levy is making his UFC debut. He also likes to grapple and work on the ground. He is relatively inexperienced, and when you watch his fights that is pretty clear. He is a good fighter, but sometimes is over anxious and finds himself in bad situations because of that. At +350 I think Garcia too win inside the distance has serious value. I also like fight to end inside distance at +130.  

Lutz vs Sabatini 

Prelim fight of the night & it should be a good one. Both guys riding nice win streaks. Lutz is a solid striker with a wrestling background. He is looking to mix in striking to set up his slam style take downs, and when he gets on top he has solid control. Doesn't have the most threatening ground & pound but is very capable of controlling his opponent. He has shown in some of his fights that cardio can be an issue, so keep an eye on that. Sabatini coming off that impressive win back in August. Dealt with adversity and stayed composed and won via submission. He is also a wrestler with very heavy top control. Unlike Lutz, he is very dangerous when he's on top and will look too finish his opponent. He has shown decent striking with good movement on his feet, so if this stays on the feet, I think he can hold his own. I like Sabatini in this fight, but not sure how I want too back him just yet. 

Yanez vs Grant 

First fight on the main card & it should be a good one. Yanez riding a very solid 7 fight win streak. He is a very technical striker with very fast hands & legit power. His last win was back in July, with a 2nd round KO. He did lose the first round in that fight, but eventually got himself a KO. He has a good chin and is a very dangerous fighter. Grant on the other side is a durable veteran who is always in a fight. He is a bus striker who likes to fight at range and uses kicks well too manage his range. He will grapple his opponents when necessary and averages just under 2 take downs per fight. I think he will need that in this fight if he wants too stand a chance against the very dangerous striker in Yanez. I think Grant will look too slow this fight down and frustrate Yanez early. At +250 I think Grant has a chance, but I prefer the fight to go distance at +150. I'm not locking in anything just yet, but I will monitor these lines as we get closer to the weekend. 

Santos vs Wood 

Straight forward fight here. I think Santos is the more well rounded and complete fighter in this fight. I think she is a bit better in every area in this fight. Wood, or Calderwood, is a technical striker with OK kicks. She also likes to march forward and put pressure on her opponent. She is a volume fighter who is very busy, but with that volume comes very little threat in terms of power. Santos is a striker with solid power. She has a bunch of stoppages in her career, and is the more dangerous fighter of the two. She will also grapple and look for take downs if the opportunity presents itself. I like Santos to cruise to a victory in this fight. Don't see much value so I will most likely pass, unless I find room in a parlay. 

Yahya vs Kang 

Coin flip fight here. I think the odds makers have this right. Yahya is the superior grappler in this match up and has loads of experience. He averages 3 take downs per fight and is always marching forward and looking to engage in take down attempts. Kang is making his return after a 2 year layoff. He is a well rounded fighter who likes to fight at range. He will also look too grapple and averages just under 3 take down's per fight. In this fight I think Kang will be better off trying to keep this fight standing, but will he be able to fight off the relentless Yahya? I lean Kang, but will most likely pass on this one. 

You should check out the sherdog betting forum lots of comments on every event 

@bakersfield6969

 Thanks for the heads up 

Brady vs Chiesa 

Co main event. This should be a good fight. Chiesa looking too get back on track after that submission loss back in August. Chiesa game plan is normally pretty straight forward, march forward and get the fight too the ground. Once he does get on top, he normally controls his opponent with a mix of ground & pound and submission attempts. Brady on the other hand is also a grappler, with a good ground game. He is the more athletic fighter of the two, and has much better striking then Chiesa. He is a creative fighter and mixes things up on the feet and the ground too keep his opponents guessing. His take down defense has help up so far in the UFC, but against Chiesa will be a much taller task. I lean Brady.  

Tate vs Vieira 

Odd main event. Tate with that victory couple months ago after a 5 year lay off looked solid, but against a weak opponent. Tate is an OK striker who will look too grapple more often then not. She is solid on the ground, and is a lot more comfortable on the mat then standing. Vieira like Tate is just an average striker, but she has a lot more Power in her punches then Tate. She likes too pressure her opponent and looks too tie them up and grapple and work too the ground. Once on top she is heavy and has solid control. At even money I like Vieira in a 5 round fight, with the edge in the striking and the ability too land more damaging strikes on the feet & ground. 

FYI, all fighters made weight 

Prelim picks, 

Nuerdanbieke/Soriano fight to go distance (YES) -110 - 1.5 units to win 1.36 units 

McKinney ML -110 - 2 units to win 1.81 units 

Godinez wins by decision +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units 

Garcia/Levy fight to go distance (NO) +120 - 1 unit to win 1.20 units 

Main Card, 

Yanez/Grant fight to go distance (YES) +150 - 1 unit to win 1.50 units 

Kang wins by decision +210 - 0.5 units to win 1.05 units 

Parlay, 

Pinheiro ML 
Santos ML 
Vieira ML 

+200 - 1.5 units to win 3 units 

GL this week paletta!!

Fist  

Joe 

Impressive stuff 

@monkeebooger

 Appreciate it