Perez vs Eduardo
First fight of the night, and its a weird one. Both fighters returning after long layoffs. Perez hasn't fought since 2019 & Eduardo 2018. Perez has a wrestling background, but relies more on his boxing/striking. He looks to make fights dirty, and relies on his take down defense to keep the fight standing, and will never shy away from a war. Eduardo not only fighting for the first time in 3+ years, but he's always 43 years old. Not a good mix. Eduardo has no take down ability so I don't think that will play any sort of roll in this fight. Eduardo is the prime example of a fighter looking to get a finish, or get himself finished, and I don't think that changes here. Too many unknowns for me to make a bet, but I see this fight ending inside the distance, but currently sitting at -150, I will wait it out and see how the line looks closer to fight night.
Young vs Egger
First of many ladies fight on this card. Both ladies lost there UFC debuts back in 2020, and both will be looking to secure a win here. Both ladies have solid boxing and OK power. Young is an aggressive fighter who likes to get inside the pocket and fight at close range with her opponent & she will look to mix in her wrestling while doing so. Egger likes to pressure her opponent, but like she showed in her last fight against Cortez, she is vulnerable to the take down. If Young is aware of this, she will be able to use her striking to set up some take downs, and I think she has more methods to a victory here. I lean Young, but not ready to commit.
Andrade vs Pirrello
Interesting fight here. Andrade coming off a loss back in January. Moving from 145 back to 135 in this fight. He hasn't fought at 135 since 2018, so who know's if that plays a roll in his weight cut. Andrade is the much more experienced fighter, he has fought some of the very best at both weight classes. He is a solid striker with good power and likes to make the fight dirty. He's more then capable if the fight gets to the ground, but will prefer to keep it standing. Pirrello lost his UFC debut back in January of this year against Ricky Simon. Pirrello is a very good striker, and owns some very nice KO's in his career. Very creative striker, and in my opinion has the clear advantage if this fight stays standing. Currently sitting at +200, I like Pirrello, but I am worried Andrade switches up his traditional style here, and works this fight to the ground, where I think Andrade has the clear advantage. Lean Pirrello at the current odds.
Smith vs Mullarkey
Exciting fight up next. Both guy's coming off solid wins earlier this year. Mullarkey's style is to grapple you, pressure you and create opportunities on the ground while he has his opponents on the ropes. His striking isn't the greatest but has shown improvements in that category. He also has good fight IQ, and never puts himself in horrible situations. Smith is fast, great striking and good power. Loves to keep his opponent at range and pick his spots. Smith's take down defense is 100% in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see how he fair's with Mullarkey, who we know will look to grapple and try for some take downs. I anticipate a good fight here. I lean Mullarkey, but no firm bet just yet.
Rosa vs Correia
Lopsided fight here according to the odds. Rosa riding a 5 fight win streak. Rosa is a very busy fighter and throws lots of volume. She likes to get in and out of the pocket, and avoid any real big shots/damage. She can mix up take down's but typically likes to use her movement and touch up her opponent. Correia 103 in her last 4 fights will have her hands full here. She's fought top competition during here career, but has never gotten over the hump. Opposite to Rosa, she will look to make the fight dirty. She has decent power & her ground game is decent. I believe Correia has announced this is her last fight, so who knows what too expect here. I cant see any value in this fight so I will most likely pass.
O'neill vs Shevchenko
Excited for this fight. O'neill is an up and coming prospect with a 7-0 overall record, 2-0 in the UFC. She loves to grapple, and get her opponent to the ground and beat you up. She is also a capable striker with solid elbows and clinch work. She isn't afraid to get into a war, and will always look too finish her opponent. Shevchenko on the other hand has alternated wins/losses in her last 5 fights. I think she has the slight advantage in the striking department in this fight, but that's about it. Her take down defense in the UFC is set at 50%, and against someone like O'neill who loves to shoot and get it too the ground, I smell trouble. I like O'neill to win this & win rather easy.
Solecki vs Gordon
Prelim fight of the night, and it should be a good one. Solecki 3-0 in the UFC, comes into this fight with some momentum. He is a very good grappler, very creative on the ground and is very heavy when he gets on top of his opponent. Most guys like him aren't great strikers, but in this case that's not true. He has clean/crisp striking and is willing to exchange on the feet if that's how the fights going. Mix that in with his ground game, this guy is someone to watch. Gordon on a 2 fight win streak, will look to keep things going here. Tough task. Gordon moving up a weight class for this fight, so we will see how that plays out. Gordon also has a wrestling background, but in this fight he might not want to use that as much as he normally does. Gordon has fought the more talented opponents in his career, with much more experience, but on paper, I have Solecki winning this fight.
Hernandez vs Breeden
First fight of the main card, and it's the most lopsided matchup odds wise. Hernandez is a puzzle I cant seem to solve. I have watched him look really good, then really bad. He has all the tools to be a great fighter, he just needs to find consistency. He is a good wrestler, with good power and good speed. He has fought great competition in his short UFC career, he just needs to put it all together, and this fight might just help. Breeden making his UFC career on short notice. He is a + striker who likes to stay at range. He is very creative on the feet and is always looking to throw something different at his opponent. Unfortunately for him, I think Hernandez is better in every department and should cruise to a victory here. I will most likely pass on this fight all together, not only because the odds are so wide, but Hernandez inconsistency scares me.
Cirkunov vs Jotko
Both guys looking to get back on track. Both coming off losses in there last fights earlier this year. Cirkunov last 7 fights have all ended in the 1st round, will that streak continue? He loves getting the fight to the ground, and that is where he is most comfortable. He isn't afraid to throw wild bombs while standing, but if he wants to win this fight, he will need to find some success on the ground. Jotko is a good striker with fast hands. I think he will be aware of Cirkunov desire to get this fight to the ground and will look to keep his distance and touch Misha up. Jotko has shown some solid takedown defense in his previous fights, and I see his takedown defense overall at 87%. Will he be able to hold off Cirkunov long enough? That will be the X factor in my opinion. I lean Cirkunov at + money.
Price vs Oliveira
Fireworks. That's what I expect here. Oliveira is the more technical/complete fighter, but at times a little gun shy. Both guys never shy away from a war, Niko actually welcomes that style. If Oliveira falls into the trap, Niko could get his way. Oliveira has to fight a complete fight, with all his tools in order to have a chance, slow Niko down. Price is tough to put away, & if you find yourself over committed, he could put you in serious danger. Toughness of Price, and Oliveira wanting to fight smart has me liking this fight to go distance at + money. Might also explore and over rounds prop.
Holland vs Daukaus
Another good fight. Holland spent his last two fights showing the world he has zero wrestling capability. Dominated. Has he gotten better? On the feet we know who he is, great boxer with crisp/accurate strikes. Question is, what has he learned? Daukaus isn't a great wrestler, but is comfortable taking the fight to the ground and making it a grueling fight. Will that be enough to hold Holland down? I'm just not sure. I want to think Holland knows what's coming and will be prepared, I just don't know if I can back him knowing his last fight was only 6 months ago.
Santos vs Walker
Main event. Santos coming into this fight having lost his last 3. Needs a win to get back on track, or this could be it. After his injuries against Jon Jones back in 2019, he has been a different fighter. His strengths pre knee injury was a fury of kicks followed up by big shots. Last 2 fights, he looked a little hesitant with the kicks. So who will we see? Walker is a wild fighter. Big for the weight class, and is always looking to throw or do something wild. I think if Walker pressures and stays in Santos face, he will frustrate him and wear him down. I had Walker as the favorite in this fight, so at + money I have to back him to win here. Would I be surprised if Santos KO's Walker, no. But again at + odd's I'm taking Walker.
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