This upcoming card is going to be hard to handicap. There are a lot of fights but they are a bunch of middle of the road type fighters and new fighters from other promotions. Not a lot of high profile guys at all or even up and comers. More like a lot of journeyman fights.
But I will say this, jump on Vicente Luque now / early. I can easily see the line continue to move to him being even more of a favorite. At -175 now it could balloon to -200. Luque is too much for Belal. Luque's violence and striking is on another level. Belal has good grappling, but it isn't elite grappling and not enough to control Luque in my opinion. Luque is too strong, athletic, and may even out grapple / submit Belal. I think Luque has all the advantages no matter where the fight goes.
I'll post a video on my picks and insights later this week. Good luck all!
Alateng vs Croom
Opening fight of the night. Both guys looking to get back on track. Alateng is 2-1-1 since joining the UFC & is coming off a draw in his last fight. He is a striker & a pretty technical one. He seems too struggle when he’s up against high pressure/high output fighters so that is something too monitor against Croom who is always willing too brawl & pressure his opponent. Alateng does have some grappling when he needs it, so it will be interesting too see what kind of game plan he comes in with. In comes Croom. He is 0-2 in his last 2, both losses were short notice fights. In that span he didn’t look horrible. He is a pretty well rounded fighter. His striking style is awkward but he makes it work, and he does have solid ground game, If it ends up there. He does lack any sort of control on the ground, so I would anticipate he tries too turn this into a dirty brawl and bait Alateng into a dog fight. If I’m Alateng I would implement my striking early and turn too my grappling and wrestling & avoid a sloppy brawl that Croom strives in. I will most likely back Alateng in This fight, I just don’t know how yet.
Nunes vs Hughes
Two ladies looking to get their first UFC victory. Hughes is 0-3 in the UFC. She is big and physical for the weight class. She is a striker with decent forward pressure. Because of her forward pressure, she does get hit & has a negative striking differential. Her lack of striking defense is worrisome against a kick boxer like Nunes & Hughes lack of grappling leaves her without a clear path to victory. Nunes lost her UFC debut via submission back in October. Before that she was serving a 3 year suspension. She is a striker with only 9 professional MMA fights. She does have a lot of kick boxing experience. She is a fast striker with solid power in her hands. She does a good job with her kicks & can bring them from all different angles. She does have wholes in her grappling and that was obvious in her last fight, as she got taken down 5 times & eventually subbed. Hughes lack of grappling & poor striking defense has me leaning towards Nunes. Nunes by decision would be my choice but odds makers have that juiced at -130 so I will most likely pass. I will wait and see what the odds look like later in the week.
Leavitt vs Ogden
Solid match up here. Ogden is making his UFC debut. He is an athletic fighter who is well rounded in pretty much all areas. He is riding a 3 fight submission win streak. His striking is solid and has good power. He uses his striking nicely in order to set up well timed take downs. If he gets on top he has heavy top pressure and is looking for submissions & looking for ground and pound. In comes Leavitt. He won his last fight after suffering his first career loss. He is a grappler with just OK striking. He is a traditional grappler, and because of his below average striking, sometimes its a challenge for him to get his own take downs. He has a success rate of just 31%. He is dangerous on the ground, but against the more complete fighter he will have his hands full in this fight. I was hoping to get Ogden at + money but currently he is sitting at -130. I will wait until later in the week and see what the odds look like.
Barnett vs Buday
This should have some fireworks early & often. Barnett is coming off that impressive spinning back kick KO in his last fight. He is a unique heavyweight. Short & heavy, but also very athletic, and that was on display in his last fight. He has decent striking with good power in his hands. He will have his hands full in this fight against the much bigger Martin Buday. Making his official UFC debut, Buday will look too keep things rolling. He is a solid striker with real power. He has good movement & has grappling in his back pocket if need be. For someone with good footwork & movement he does get hit more then you would like, so against someone with the creativity of Barnett, it is something too monitor. I will most likely pass on this fight, but it will be interesting to see how Buday responds if he cant finish Barnett early in the fight.
Garcia vs Ronson
This should be a competitive fight. Garcia is 1-2 since joining the UFC. He got his first win back in November and looked solid in that fight. He has good grappling with solid striking and legitimate power. His most glaring flaw is his cardio and it has been a real problem since joining the UFC. His last fight it looked a bit better, but still slowed considerably as the fight went on. One thing about Garcia is that even when his cardio fades, he is still chasing a finish which always makes him a threat & his style does wear on his opponent also. In comes Ronson who returns after a suspension. He is a veteran with a lot of experience. He is a volume striker with OK power. He does have decent offensive BJJ and does a good job in scrambles capitalizing on opportunities if they present themselves. When I first seen this fight I thought Garcia would be a bigger favorite, so at even money I like the value in Garcia, and I assume he has continued to work on his cardio. I will play the ML at +100.
Klose vs Jenkins
Interesting fight. Klose making his return after a 2 year layoff. He was scheduled to fight a few months ago until he was shoved at face offs and hurt. He is a wrestler & a pretty good one. He has developed his striking & its much improved. He has good hand speed with solid power which makes him a pretty complete fighter and tough opponent for anyone. Jenkins lost his debut back in September. He is a take one to give one style fighter. He is always willing to slug it out and absorb damage in order too return big shots of his own. He is a very creative striker with all sorts of attacks. He does a good job at changing stances and mixing in kicks nicely. I think these odds are wide at -600 for Klose, especially against someone who fights like Jenkins does. I anticipate Klose comes in with a grapple heavy game plan and will look too neutralize Jenkins wild attacks. I will most likely pass on this fight but over 2.5 rounds at +110 caught my eye.
Lansberg vs Kianzad
Striker vs Striker. Lansberg is making her return after a 2+ year layoff. She is a Muay Thai striker who likes to use her knees & elbows in the clinch. She has a clear flaw in her take down defense, but against another striker I don't see that being an issue in this fight. These ladies did fight 10 years ago & Kianzad won via TKO. In comes Kianzad. She lost her last fight VIA decision. She is a striker with solid volume and a nice jab. She has nice combinations with good movement and footwork. Like Lansberg, her biggest flaw would be her take down defense, but again I don't see either lady getting this to the ground. I lean Kianzad as the fresher and more active striker, but current odds have Kianzad as a -450 favorite so I will pass on this fight altogether.
Clark vs Knight
Two fighters who normally fight at light heavyweight, but now move up to heavyweight. Interesting fight. Knight lost his last fight via decision. That fight was on short notice & he did miss weight by 12.5 pounds. He looked awful in that fight, so it will be interesting to see how he responds, especially moving up too heavyweight. He is a solid striker who is fast for his size. He has one punch KO power and averages just under 2 take downs per fight. His cardio has help up, and when it does it's a big asset for him. Question is, how will he look at heavy weight? How will he deal with the added weight/muscle? Will it affect his cardio? A lot of question marks & unanswered questions. In comes Clark who is a very good grappler. He is riding a 2 fight losing streak so will look to get things back on track. He is a well rounded fighter with solid striking and good power. He has nice kicks and uses volume to overwhelm his opponent and eventually work in some take downs. If he gets on top of his opponent he does have heavy ground & pound and is always looking too finish his opponent. I will wait and see how these two fighters look at weigh ins, but I lean Clark with all the uncertainty surrounding Knight.
Sabatini vs Laramie
Main card opener. Sabatini is 3-0 since joining the UFC. He looks to keep things rolling. He has great grappling & great wrestling. He has heavy top pressure and likes to smother his opponent and give them very little room to work back up to their feet. His striking is solid and has shown improvements in that area. He has nice movement on his feet and keeps his opponents off balance which helps set up clean take down attempts. Laramie returns after a year layoff. He lost his UFC debut VIA 1st round submission. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He has solid striking with good power for his size. He does have solid head kicks and knees when gets into the clinch. He does a good job scrambling if he gets taken down, so that could play a factor against someone like Sabatini who is always looking to force the fight to the ground. I think Sabatini will be the bigger and more physical fighter in this match up, and I lean Sabatini by decision at +140.
Bueno Silva vs Wu
Underwhelming match up for the main card. Bueno Silva looking to bounce back after a loss in her last fight. She is a solid striker with nice power for the division. She likes to march forward and pressure her opponent. She does mix in kicks nicely & has solid grappling in her back pocket. Her one negative would be her lack of offensive wrestling, but her overall skill set is pretty solid. In comes Wu. She is 1-3 since joining the UFC & desperately needs a win. She is a Muay Thai style striker who uses volume as her best asset. She has nice movement on her feet and is a pretty technical fighter. From a betting stand point I don't see much value on taking a side, but I do like this fight to end inside the distance at +130.
Baeza vs Fialho
This should be a fun fight. Baeza is 0-2 in his last 2 fights and will look to get back on track. He is a technical striker with solid kicks. He has nice body work and looks to mix up his attacks. He does have solid BJJ so he is always live for a submission if the opportunity presents itself, although I think these two guys will stand and bang. He did get knocked out clean in his last fight, so it's always interesting to see how a fighter bounces back after a vicious KO. In comes Fialho who lost his debut against the very talented Michel Pereira. One thing he showed in that fight was his toughness. He took a beating and never stopped. He is a striker with a nice jab which he doubles up nicely. He has very legitimate kicks and uses them to attack all areas of his opponents body. He does have solid take downs if he needs them. One flaw would be his defense. He gets hit a lot and that could catch up to any fighter, no matter how tough you are. This should be a fun and very contested fight, but the toughness of Fialho and the more diverse kicks and ability for take downs has me leaning towards Fialho at +150.
Borralho vs Omargadzhiev
Co main event. Two contender series prospects. Borralho is a solid grappler with slick submission attempts. He has a wide karate style stance & has solid kicks, but his striking is below average and is pretty raw. He does have solid take down attempts. If he gets on top he does have fluent movement and is is aware of his surroundings and will transition nicely. Omargadzhiev is a well rounded fighter and will be the more complete fighter in this match up. He is a wrestler primarily and has very heavy top control. His striking is solid and has decent power. He uses his striking nicely to set up his own take down attempts. His cardio is an asset so that is something to watch for in this fight. I like Omargadzhiev in this fight as the more complete fighter. His current price tag of -125 is manageable so I will most likely back him on the ML.
Luque vs Muhammad
Main event, and this is a rematch from 2016. Luque is a 4-0 in his last 4 and is a very well rounded fighter. He is a very good striker with legit power. He does have good defensive wrestling so that could be a factor in this fight against the non stop wrestler in Muhammad. He does have slick submissions and that was on full display in his last win. His take down defense is solid & that could be the X factor in this fight. He is extremely durable and hasn't been finished since 2013. In comes Muhammad who will look to get a better result this time around against Luque. He is a much improved fighter since the first meeting. He is a non stop wrestler who fights with a relentless style and never seems to slow down. He dominated Wonderboy and took him down 7 times in that fight. His striking is much improved and he holds decent power in that area. His fight IQ in my opinion is a great asset & he seems to know when to strike and when too wrestle which is a big advantage in a close fight. This should be a close fight, but I give the edge to Muhammad as I think his non stop wrestling will frustrate and neutralize the ever so dangerous Luque. At +150 I like the value in backing Muhammad.
GL this Saturday....I think if Belal can survive rounds 1 & 2 and turn it into a wrestling match, he has a very good chance to earn a victory, may bet Belal by decision AND Luque to win in round 1 or 2
I think Sabatini subs Laramie
Goin Alateng,Buday,Nunes, Ogden and Sabatini for my parlay
really odd card...made for the Apex lol
Lazzez vs Loosa
Late replacement opponent for Lazzez. Loosa is taking this fight on 3-4 days notice & fought on the regional scene just 2 weeks ago. Loosa lost his contender series fight back in September. He is a solid striker who is very durable and hasn't been finished in his career. His strength would be his jab & he uses it very nicely to manage range and control the exchanges. He does struggle when his opponent pressures him & against a solid striker like Lazzez that could be an issues, especially on such short notice. I like the potential of Loosa moving forward, but I think this is a bad spot for him. In comes Lazzez. He is a good striker with solid power. He uses combinations nicely and will mix up his attack nicely which ultimately sets up nice take down attempts if he feels the need to get the fight to the ground. He does have solid fight IQ which is always a nice asset for any fighter. His cardio is also an asset. I like Lazzez by decision in this fight against the very durable & tough Loosa.
Prelim card,
Nunes by decision +105 - 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Ogden ML -150 - 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Ogden wins inside distance +200 - 0.5 units to win 1 unit
Barnett wins in round 2 +900 - 0.25 units to win 2.25 units
Barnett wins in round 3 +1800 - 0.25 units to win 4.5 units
Garcia ML -105 - 2 units to win 1.90 units
Garcia wins inside distance +333 - 0.5 units to win 1.65 units
Klose vs Jenkins over 2.5 rounds - 1 unit to win 0.91 units
Clark wins by decision +137 - 1 unit to win 1.37 units
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