Barry vs Jackson
Very odd opening fight. Two guys making their UFC debuts. Barry was signed in 2020 but due to VISA issues, his UFC career was postponed. Barry is a kick boxer with a wide karate style stance. He has solid kicks and uses them well too manage his range. He does have solid power even though he is undersized for this weight class. His take down defense is average, but in this fight I don't think that will be something to worry about. In comes Jackson. He only has 3 professional MMA fights in his career, but does have a lot of kick boxing experience. He is long for the division and likes to stay at range and control the exchanges. The odds on this fight are absolutely insane and I will most likely stay away from this very odd match up.
Prachnio vs Lins
This should be a solid fight. Prachnio is riding a 2 fight win streak after he lost his first 3 UFC fights. He has a brawling style and is always willing to slug it out. Problem is his chin isn't built for that style & it has gotten him into trouble since joining the UFC. He did win his last fight, but was getting hit a lot and was taken down before securing his KO victory. Lins is still looking for his first UFC win. He is 0-2 since joining. He typically fights at heavyweight, but is going down to light heavyweight for the first time in the UFC. He has nice power, and going down a weight class that could benefit him if he can bring that power down with him. He does have solid grappling if he decides to use it, and that could play a factor in this fight. I like Lins in this match up with more ways to win, and at +110 I think this is a good spot for him, assuming he makes weight and looks solid on the scale.
Aoriqileng vs Else
Two guys looking for their first UFC victories. Aoriqileng is a very well rounded fighter who is also very durable & tough. He fights with good pace and loves to stay in the face of his opponent. He does a good job at using his striking in order to set up his take downs. His chin is an asset & he is dangerous from start to finish of any of his fights. In comes Else who is making his return after a 1.5 year layoff. He lost his debut, but that fight was on short notice. He is a striker with very real power & good finishing ability. He is a dangerous fighter who can also hunt for submission & is always a threat for a finish. He rarely fights out of the first round so what is worrisome as I can see him falling behind on the scorecards if that's the case in this fight. I think these odds are a little lopsided in favor Aoriqileng. Else +350 inside the distance is tempting, but the toughness and durability of Aoriqileng has me second guessing myself. I will wait until later in the week to make a final decision.
Pedro vs Villanueva
Another odd match up. Pedro returns after a 3 year layoff. He does have 6 fights in the UFC and has fought some solid opponents in that span. During that 3 year layoff he dealt with some injuries, so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back. He is a well rounded fighter, but his main strength would be his grappling. He doesn't have the cleanest take downs, but will capitalize on his opportunities and work his opponent to the mat. He does have solid top pressure & is always looking to land damage while on top. Villanueva is 1-4 since joining the UFC. He is a tough fighter with nice clean boxing. He has good speed for his size and good power and combinations. He is vulnerable to kicks and that was evident in his last couple fights. Pedro stands a -550 favorite and I think that is crazy for a fighter coming off a 3 year layoff and some injuries. I Just don't see enough from Villanueva to back him, but the over 1.5 rounds at +125 caught my eye.
Grant vs Khandozhko
Another fighter making his return after a long layoff. Khandozhko is returning after a 2 year layoff. He is 1-1 since joining the UFC. He is a very creative striker with clean strikes and solid speed and power. He does a good job at controlling the exchanges and staying in the face of his opponent and does a good job at counter punching with his speed & accuracy. He does have solid grappling so that is something to watch for in this fight. Grant is coming off a decision loss back in October of last year. He is a tall and long fighter with nice & clean striking. He likes to fight at range and use his size as an advantage. He has shown cardio issues in the past, so that is a concern if your backing him. Typically I don't like backing fighters coming back from a long layoff, but in this fight I think Khandozhko is better in all areas and at his current price of -125 I will back him on the ML.
Wright vs Barriault
Two fighters coming off KO losses. Wright is 2-2 since joining the UFC. He is a karate style striker with good solid range. He has 100% finish rate regardless if he wins or loses. He has very solid power and he likes to bounce in and out of the pocket. He is dangerous, but his style allows him to get hit a lot, which has got himself in trouble in some of his fights. He is capable on the ground and has some slick submissions in his back pocket. In comes Barriault. He was viciously knocked out just 2 months ago, which is very concerning with such a quick turnaround. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He likes to pressure his opponent and wear them down as the fight goes on. He does have solid wrestling, but his take down attempts are just average. I like Wright in this fight as the more dangerous and fresh fighter, and at +150 the price tag makes it even more appealing.
Vannata vs Jourdain
Fight of the night candidate. This should be a exciting fight. Vannata won his featherweight debut back in May of last year. He is a slick striker with a nice set of skills. He is aggressive and is always putting pressure on his opponent. He does have grappling as an option & that could be a factor in this fight against the very explosive Jourdain. His take down defense is just average, but he has shown the ability to work back to his feet in some of his fights. Jourdain is 2-1 in his last 3. He is a forward pressure striker who has a very creative set of attacks. He is coming off his first decision victory of his career. His chin is an asset & he is extremely tough. Jourdain is very entertaining to watch, but his style isn't built for longevity, and against a flashy and technical Vannata, I think he could face some challenges. I expect Vannata too be the bigger and more physical fighter in this fight & at +105 I will most likely back him on the ML.
Su vs Kape
This should be a very competitive fight. Su is riding a 3 fight win streak in the UFC & will make his return after a year long layoff due to knee surgery. He is a very good striker with great movement. He has legitimate hand speed and very good striking accuracy. His cardio is an asset and his volume & pressure always gives his opponent something to worry about. Kape is 2-2 since joining the UFC. His last 2 fights both resulted in round 1 KO's. He is very quick and explosive in his attacks. He has a creative and diverse set of strikes & his movement is very fluid. He does have wrestling in his back pocket, so that might be something he uses in this fight against the dynamic striker Su. He has shown to have IQ issues, but 4 fights into his UFC career, you would hope he cleans some of that up. I think if Su can keep this fight on the feet, he will have the striking advantage & his volume will be too much for the more selective and powerful Kape. I like Su at +150 in this fight.
Barber vs De La Rosa
First ladies fight of the night. Barber is coming into this fight after a questionable decision win in her last fight. She is a good striker with solid volume early in fights. Her knock is her volume fades as the fight goes on, which ultimately costs her a couple decisions. She does have improved wrestling, so maybe she mixes up her game plan and comes in with a more balanced game plan in this fight. In comes De La Rosa. She won her last fight VIA stoppage last summer. She is a wrestle heavy fighter with improved striking, which she showcased in her last fight. When she gets her opponent down, she does have solid control, so she can win rounds rather easy. Originally I liked De La Rosa as a +165 underdog, but I'm not ready too commit and I might pass on this fight altogether.
Guida vs Puelles
We are blessed with another Guida fight! He won his last fight back in December, but was almost finished until he came back with an impressive submission in the 2nd round. He fights with high pressure and high pace and that's exactly how he wins his fights. His cardio & toughness even at this point in his career is an asset and its very impressive at the ripe age of 40. He has non stop wrestling and wears down his opponent's as the fight progresses. Puelles is riding a 4 fight winning streak. He has good grappling and that is his best asset. He does a good job using kicks to manage his range and moves well on his feet. He does have a negative striking differential so that is something to monitor. He averages about 3 take downs per fight, but against the experienced Guida, those could be a lot harder to secure then in his past fights. I hate betting against experience and toughness, but in this fight I think Puelles will be well aware of his opponent and be ready for the grueling style of Guida, and do just enough to secure a victory. At +100 I think I will be backing Puelles on the ML.
Romanov vs Sherman
New opponent for Romanov. Sherman steps up on very short notice after being cut by the UFC recently. Romanov is 4-0 since joining the UFC & 15-0 overall in his MMA career. He is a dominate wrestler with good speed and power for his size. He dominated his first 2 UFC fights & his last UFC fight, but the Espino fight a year ago caused him some issues and he showed some of his shortcomings. In that decision victory his cardio was in question & his take down defense was also tested and looked vulnerable at times. Sherman isn't a cardio machine or a take down artist, but that fight did show that Romanov is vulnerable in some areas. Sherman is 0-3 in his last 3 UFC fights. He is a solid boxer with decent footwork. His strength is his volume, and he never stops throwing hands, regardless of the damage he takes or his cardio state. He is always marching forward and likes to stay in the face of his opponent. His issue is head movement, which is very minimal which causes him to get battered. Sherman is tough and can take a beating, so over 1.5 rounds at +220 seems juicy, but your playing with fire if you decide to back that bet. I will wait until the weekend and see if I'm ready for that hail marry.
Lemos vs Andrade
Main event, and it should be a good one. Lemos is 5-0 in her last 5 & looks to get in the title conversation. Her last fight she won a very close decision against Angela Hill. She is a Muay Thai striker with good power in her hands. She prefers to fight at range and control the exchanges, but against the bully Andrade, that could be a tall task. She is a threat on the ground and has solid submissions in her back pocket if the opportunity presents itself. For me the real question will be the step up in competition. Lemos has fought lower level competition since joining the UFC & Andrade has only fought the very best, so it will be interesting to see how she handles herself under the bright lights. In comes Andrade who will look to stack wins and get another title shot. She has loads of experience against the very best in women's MMA, so no doubt the experience will be on her side. She is a solid striker with legit power. Her ground game is solid, but her take downs are more of a bully style & lack technique. She thrives when she's the stronger and more powerful fighter, so I anticipate she tries to establish that early in the fight. I lean Andrade in this fight, but I'm not sure how or if I will bet on this fight just yet.
Parsons vs Elder
This should be another fun fight. Two young fighter's who will look to make a statement. Elder is taking this on short notice, but he was scheduled to fight in May so he should be in shape. He was training for a striker & now has a grapple heavy opponent so that is concerning if your looking to back Elder. Elder is also moving up a weight class, so it will be interesting to see how he looks size wise. He is a solid prospect with a nice set of skills. He is a solid striker with power in both hands, and also has very nice kicks. He moves well on the feet, and if the fight ends up on the mat, he is very patient and transitions nicely from position to position. He has solid take downs of his own, but in this fight I would imagine he would prefer to keep it standing. The biggest question mark for me is how he looks size wise compared to Parsons, considering he's moving up a weight class. In comes Parsons. He lost his UFC debut by KO. He is a grapple heavy fighter and has a 100% finish rate VIA submission. He throws big shots on the feet in order to set up his take downs. I don't think much changes for him in this fight, as I think he will try and get this fight on the ground early & often. He is very dangerous on the ground and is always hunting for submissions. I lean Elder ML at +100 as I think he will be able to fend off the submission attempts on the ground and ultimately out strike Parsons and secure a win. I will watch the weigh-ins before making a final decision on this fight.
Prelims -
Lins ML +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit
Elder ML +105 - 1.5 units to win 1.58 units
Else wins inside distance +400 - 0.25 units to win 1 unit
Pedro vs Villanueva over 1.5 rounds +160 - 1 unit to win 1.60 units
Khandozhko ML -125 - 2.5 units to win 2 units
Wright ML +162 - 1 unit to win 1.62 units
Wright wins in round 1 +650 - 0.25 units to win 1.62 units
Main Card -
Jourdain wins in round 2 +1000 - 0.25 units to win 2.5 units
Jourdain wins in round 3 +2000 - 0.25 units to win 5 units
Romanov vs Sherman over 1.5 rounds +240 - 0.5 units to win 1.20 units
De La Rosa ML +155 - 1 unit to win 1.55 units
Puelles ML -110 - 2 units to win 1.82 units
FULL CARD - 
Prelims -
Lins ML +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit
Elder ML +105 - 1.5 units to win 1.58 units
Else wins inside distance +400 - 0.25 units to win 1 unit
Pedro vs Villanueva over 1.5 rounds +160 - 1 unit to win 1.60 units
Khandozhko ML -125 - 2.5 units to win 2 units
Wright ML +162 - 1 unit to win 1.62 units
Wright wins in round 1 +650 - 0.25 units to win 1.62 units
Main Card -
Jourdain wins in round 2 +1000 - 0.25 units to win 2.5 units
Jourdain wins in round 3 +2000 - 0.25 units to win 5 units
Romanov vs Sherman over 1.5 rounds +240 - 0.5 units to win 1.20 units
De La Rosa ML +155 - 1 unit to win 1.55 units
Puelles ML -110 - 2 units to win 1.82 units
GL ALL 
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