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#1
2021- 73-97 +9.13 units
YTD 104-158 +31.62 units
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
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#5
Dolidze vs Daukaus
Opening fight on the card & its a re-booked fight. Two grapple heavy fighters who match up in what should be a solid fight. Dolidze is 3-1 since joining the UFC, and his only loss was a decision. He is a world champion grappler with a very solid skill set. He likes to march forward and keep the pressure on his opponent. His striking is average, but he does have solid power in his hands. One issue with Dolidze is his take down defense and his cardio, which are both suspect and against Daukaus, that could be an issue. I do think Dolidze is the more established fighter, and I do think he will be the more physical and stronger fighter, so if he can find some take downs early, he should have some success. Daukaus is coming off an impressive submission win earlier this year. He has very good grappling and decent striking. He will look to tie up his opponent and has very nice clinch work. His take down offense isn't the greatest, but if he gets you on the ground, he is always a threat for a submission. The odds have Dolidze as a +200 underdog which has my interest, but I do worry about his cardio as the fight goes on, especially if he isn't able to find take downs early in the fight. As of right now I lean Dolidze, but I will continue to monitor these lines as the week goes on.
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#6
Hawes vs Winn
This is another solid fight early on the card & like the last fight its also a re-booked fight. Hawes makes his return after the KO loss late last year. Hawes is a good wrestler with improved striking. He has legitimate power in his hands and is a very athletic fighter. He typically has the wrestling advantage in most of his fights, but sometimes abandons his best asset and sticks to his striking, which got him in trouble in his last fight against Curtis. He has had cardio issues in the past so keep that in mind, although he has shown improvements in that area in his last few fights. Winn makes his return after over a year long layoff. He is a wrestler who is short for the division and fights with a bulldozing style. He will look to march forward and throw big looping shots to help close the distance and eventually work in take downs. He had 12 take downs in his last fight, and averages just over 5 take downs overall in his career. Odds have Hawes as -250 favorite which I think is warranted, especially being the more complete and explosive fighter, but his failure to stick to a game plan has me worried, especially against a committed wrestler like Winn. I lean Winn with the juicy +210 odds, but if Hawes comes in with a balanced and well executed game plan this could be a rough fight for Winn.
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#7
Wineland vs Stamann
Two guys riding losing streaks & both guys need victories to get back on track. Wineland is 0-2 in his last 2, both losses VIA stoppage. He is returning after a year+ long layoff. He is a veteran who has been fighting professionally since 2003, which is good for experience, but bad for the damage he has accumulated. He is a solid striker with decent power in his hands. He does have good take down defense and will most likely need that in this fight. If he can defend the take downs, he could have some success in this fight in a striking match up, but at this point in his career, he will have his hands full against the younger and more fresh fighter. Stamann is 0-3 in his last 3 fights. He is coming off that quick submission loss earlier this year. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He is a solid wrestler who averages just under 3 take downs per fight. He fights with a good pace and is always moving his feet. His striking is technical and he does a good at mixing up his attack nicely. I will most likely pass on this fight in terms of betting, but I do like the fight to end inside distance at +120.
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#8
Oliveira vs De Paula
First ladies fight of the night. Oliveira lost her debut late last year. She is a decent striker who likes to mix kicks into her attack. She uses forward pressure as an asset and likes too apply pressure to her opponent, but against someone like De Paula who uses her movement very well, that style could play right into the strength of De Paula. This is another tough fight for her, especially since its only her 2nd fight in the UFC. In comes De Paula who is coming of an impressive win earlier this year. She is a good striker with good movement and good striking accuracy. She uses her movement well and does a good job at keeping her opponent at range. She does have nice clinch work, and does a good job at inflicting damage while in the clinch. In her last fight she did show the ability to grapple which added a new asset in her variety of weapons, and attempted 5 take downs in that fight. I think De Paula will be the much better and much more complete fighter in this match up. I will most likely bet De Paula in this fight, I just haven't decided on the best way to do so just yet. I will monitor these lines as the week rolls on and make a final decision on the weekend.
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#9
Ramos vs Chavez
This should be a very fun fight & is another good match up. Ramos is coming off a decision loss last year & will look to get things back on track. He is a well rounded fighter with a complete set of skills. He is a very dangerous fighter with solid striking & a nice jab. He does have very strong and aggressive kicks and does a good job at mixing them into his attack. He does a good job at adjusting his style as the fight goes on, and tailors his attack to his opponents weakness. If he ends up on the mat he is always hunting for submissions and makes his opponent pay for any sort of mistake. In comes Chavez who is no slouch. His last fight ended in a DRAW just under a year ago. He is a striker who has very nice counter punches. He uses his speed and movement as an asset, and does a good job keeping his opponent from timing him up. His take down defense is solid so it will be interesting to see how Ramos approaches this fight. He is very tough and very durable and has yet to be finished in his career. The odds have Ramos as a -300 favorite which I think is pretty wide in this match up, but he for sure will be the more dangerous and more well rounded fighter in this fight. I don't see much in terms of betting this fight just yet, so I will pass unless I see something later in the week.
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#10
McGee vs Wells
Interesting fight here. Both guys riding 2 fight win streaks will look to keep things rolling. McGee is an experienced fighter who has seen it all. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He has fought very stiff competition in his career, and has proven to be very durable and tough threw out that span. He has solid striking with good grappling and wrestling. In his last 2 fights he showed his willingness to grapple and does a great job at controlling his opponent for long periods of time. He isn't the most dangerous fighter, but does a good job at sticking to what works, and has shown the ability to execute a solid game plan. Wells is 2-0 since joining the UFC, both wins VIA stoppage. He is a very dangerous fighter with solid striking & big power in his hands. He uses that power to set up his take downs and has very solid grappling in his back of tricks. He does a good job at transitioning from one take down attempt to the next if he isn't successful, and is a very talented fighter. He has yet to fight late into the 2nd round or 3rd round since joining the UFC, so it will be interesting to see how he handles his cardio against a grueling fighter like McGee if he cant find an early finish. Odds have McGee a slight favorite which I think is fair, but Wells is a dangerous and very capable fighter. I lean McGee, but I cant ignore the power and grappling ability of Wells, so I will hold off until I see how the market shapes up later in the week.
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#11
Jasudavicius vs Silva
2nd and last ladies fight of the night. Jasudavicius won her debut back in January. She is a wrestler, and a solid one at that. She fights with a forward pressing style and a nice pace, and eventually will look to tie up her opponent and work her way too the mat. If she gets on top she has very heavy top control and does a good job at controlling her opponent, which was on full display in her debut. Her striking is average, and by far her best asset is her wrestling and heavy top pressure. Silva is making her official UFC debut. She is making her debut after a 17 month layoff. She is a well rounded fighter with a decent set of skills. She is a brawler who is not afraid to make a fight ugly and is looking to lure her opponent into a fire fight. She does have solid power for the weight class, but her brawling style does leave her vulnerable to the take down, and in this fight that could ultimately be the X factor. She does have decent take downs of her own, but Jasudavicius will be the more dominate wrestler in this fight. I think these odds are a little wide, especially with Jasudavicius only fighting her 2nd fight in the UFC, but her ability to take down and control her opponent should give her all she needs in this fight. I will most likely pass on this fight, or take a flier on Silva inside the distance for a small position.
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#12
Yanez vs Kelley
Fight of the night candidate. Yanez is 4-0 since joining the UFC and will look to keep things rolling. He is a high level boxer who is very technical in his striking. He has fast hands and real power. He moves well and has shown to have a durable chin since joining the UFC. His take down defense has held up, so this should be a striking match and could be a very entertaining fight. Kelley is 2-0 in his last 2 fights, and is coming off an impressive stoppage win last December. He is a brawler style fighter who is always marching forward and thrives when hes able to keep his opponent on his back foot. He mixes in kicks nicely and his volume is a great asset. He has been taken down fairly easily in the UFC, but I don't expect Yanez to go down that road, and if he does Kelley has shown to be active of his back and has solid defense from bottom position. I think Kelley will be the more active fighter in this fight, but Yanez will have the striking and power advantage. I think these odds are very wide and I actually think Kelley has a real shot in this fight. I don't think I will play a side in this fight, but both these guys are durable so I do like the over 2.5 rounds at -110 in what should be a back and forth match up.
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#13
Marquez vs Rodrigues
Opening fight on the main card. This has the potential to be a messy and sloppy slug fest. Marquez is making his return after a year layoff. He is riding a 2 fight submission win streak. He is a well rounded fighter with a decent set of skills. His striking is solid and he does have a very good chin and has proven to be very durable. All 9 of his wins have been by stoppage so keep that in mind. He does have solid grappling, but he is more comfortable standing and taking his opponents best shots and returning big power shots of his own. In comes Rodrigues who lost a close decision a few months ago. He is a striker with good power in his hands and clean strikes. He does have a BJJ black belt so he is capable and dangerous on the mat. His take down defense is solid and I expect him to be the stronger and more powerful fighter in this match up. He isn't the fastest fighter, so he is vulnerable and his attacks seem to be a little behind his opponents. I think it would be wise for Rodrigues to mix in some grappling and take downs in this match up, and wear down Marquez as the fight goes on. I can't seem to get a solid read on this fight, so as of right now I will pass.
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#14
Ismagulov vs Kutateladze
Very good fight here. Ismagulov is 4-0 since joining the UFC. He is making his return after a year layoff. He is a well rounded fighter who is good just about everywhere. His striking is solid and he does a good job at managing his range and keeping his distance. He does have nicely timed take downs and mixes them in nicely. If he gets you down he does have solid control and he looks to outpoint and outwork his opponent. Kutateladze won his UFC debut back in 2020 on short notice and he looked impressive in that victory. He is a solid striker who likes to push forward and put pressure on his opponent. He has solid movement & speed and has really nice kicks that he works into his attack. He was taken down 5 times in his debut so that is a concern here, but he showed to be very active off his back and was able to work back to his feet. He does have nice submission attempts from bottom or top position and does a good job staying active and not letting his opponent settle in and control him. This should be a very close and contested fight. I lean Kutateladze at +130 as the more active and dangerous fighter, but Ismagulov is no slouch and is favored for a reason. I'm not ready to commit just yet on Kutateladze, but I will monitor the market and see how the odds look on the weekend.
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#15
Buckley vs Duraev
Striker vs Wrestler match up. Buckley is 2-0 in his last 2 fights. He is a solid striker with very real power. He likes to march forward and stay in the face of his opponent, and use his power threat to keep his opponent backing up. He does a good job at mixing in body shots, and has decent kicks. In his last fight he did show the ability to take down his opponent with 5 take downs, but against a solid wrestler, that might not be as easy this time out. He was also taken down 3 times in that fight, so that is a concern in this fight. Duraev won his official UFC debut late last year. He is wrestler. His take downs are very solid, and that is his game plan in almost all of his fights. He uses kicks well, and looks to push his opponent onto the cage, and work in his take downs from there. Once he gets top control, he has very heavy top pressure and is very hard to escape from. He has good ground & pound and if a submission opportunity presents itself, he will not miss that opportunity. If Buckley want's to have success in this fight, he will need to find it early in the fight, as I think as the fight goes on Duraevs non stop wrestling will eventually start to wear down Buckley and take over the fight. I like Duraev in this fight and think his style will neutralize Buckley's explosiveness, but at these current odds I don't think I can commit, especially with Buckley's one punch knockout power. I will wait until the weekend to make a final decision.
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#16
Means vs Holland
Another fun fight. Means will look to keep things rolling and extend his 3 fight win streak. Means is a karate style striker who fights with a gritty style. He has solid volume and is a very frustrating opponent for just about anyone he faces. He is a pretty well rounded fighter and does a good job fighting a style that tailors towards his opponents weakness, and that is very evident on his 3 fight winning streak. He has take downs if he needs them, and can out strike and out point his opponent on the feet if he feels he has the advantage. Holland makes his return after a submission win just a couple months ago. He is a very good striker with real power & pin point accuracy. His most glaring and obvious flaw is his take down defense. In his last fight although he won, he still showed issues in that department so that is very worrisome. He does have solid grappling and nice clinch work. The clear pick is Holland, as you would think his take down defense will eventually improve, but we have yet too see it, and he fought just 3 months ago. Means has shown the ability to fight a style that exploits his opponents weakness so that is very concerning in this fight and has me second guessing backing Holland in this match up. I will wait until the weekend and see how things look.
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#18
Cerrone vs Lauzon
Another re-booked fight from just a few weeks ago. Lauzon hasn't fought since 2019, in that span Cerrone fought 6 times and lost all those fights. Cerrone is a fun striker who has solid power in his hands. He does a good job at mixing in kicks and has nice combinations when he starts to find his timing. He does have solid scrambling ability, and can snatch up a submission if the opportunity presents itself. He has been around forever, and has fought the very best opposition threw out his decorated career. In comes Lauzon who is making his long awaited return. He has solid grappling, and in most of his fights, that's his strength. He is always looking for the take down, and in this fight I think it would be wise to establish that early in this fight. His striking is just average, but his experience and fight IQ is an asset in his below average set of skills. From a fans perspective this should be a fun fight & I will most likely back the cowboy on the ML. I will wait until the weekend and see if I can find a better price.
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#19
Kattar vs Emmett
Main event and this is a good one. Kattar is coming off that impressive victory back in January where he dominated Giga. He is an accomplished striker with great hands. He has solid power, but his timing and volume is what makes him so dangerous on the feet. He has great movement & footwork, and when he finds his timing he is very hard to stop in a striking match. His take down defense is solid, and that could come into question if Emmett turns to his wrestling. Emmett is riding a 4 fight win streak and looks too keep things rolling. On paper he is a wrestler, but he has impressive striking with very real power which has become his main weapon of choice. He has good movement and uses that movement well too lure his opponent into the pocket, and deliveries his big power shots. He has 11 knockdowns in 10 UFC fights, which shows you just how powerful and dangerous he is. Kattar will be the more technical fighter in this fight, but I think if Emmett works in some take down attempts early he could get Kattar thinking and throw of his timing and make him uncomfortable, so I do see some value in Emmett if he comes in with a solid game plan. Right now I lean Emmett at +187 but I keep flip flopping on this match up. I will wait and see how the market reacts tomorrow and early Saturday before making and final decision.
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