Posted:
#1
2021- 73-97 +9.13 units
YTD 5-11 -3.75 units
Decent looking card coming up this weekend.
Will post write ups & picks as the week goes on
GL ALL 
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
my picks:
Posted:
#3
Bondar vs Gordon
Opening fight this weekend. Bondar making his UFC debut, and it should be a decent fight. Both guy's will look too grapple and work too the ground, so it will be interesting too see who get's the better of the positions. Bondar is a very aggressive fighter who will look too mix things up and work in slam style take down attempts. Once on the ground,he has shown solid technique from top position and the ability too control his opponent. Gordon is 1-2 since joining the UFC & 13-5 total. All 5 of his losses come via stoppage. He does have a suspect chin so that is something too keep an eye on. He does average 2 Take downs per fight, but his success rate is under 20%. I think Bondar has the advantage in all areas, so I like him too win and look solid in his debut. I will watch the odds as the week goes on and maybe have an inside the distance prop on Bondar.
Posted:
#4
Rowe vs Witt
Opposite styles here. Rowe will look too keep things standing, Witt will look too get this too the ground and work away. Rowe is massive for the weight class and has a 10 inch reach advantage. He does use his reach well too manage range, so that is something too keep an eye on. The question mark in this match up is, can Rowe get back up once taken down? He has shown in previous fights he struggles in that area, and against a relentless wrestler like Witt, that could be the deciding factor in this fight. Witt does have a suspect chin, so that is cause for concern early in the fight, but as the fight goes on, I think the relentless take down attempts will tire Rowe and eventually be the X factor in this fight. At +120 I will take Witt on the ML and bank on him getting out of the 1st round and eventually take over the fight with his grit and ground game.
Posted:
#5
Almeida vs Marques
This should be a fun one. Almeida making his official UFC debut, and he is a legit prospect. He is on a 9 fight stoppage streak, and will look too keep things rolling in his debut. He is a solid striker with good power, but his strength is his grappling. He is relentless in his attacks, and is always looking for the finish. Will he get too aggressive? That will be something too monitor against someone with the experience of Marques. In comes Margues who is 2-1 since joining the UFC. He lost his last fight in the 3rd round, but was dominating the fight until he got stopped. He like Almeida is a great grappler, and I'm sure he will look too use that in this match up too slow down Almeida. He does have solid take downs of his own, and is a pretty well rounded fighter. I like Marques too keep this close, and frustrate the explosiveness of Alemida. Over 1.5 rounds at even money is something I will be backing.
Posted:
#6
Davis vs Stoliarenko
First & only ladies match of the night. Stoliarenko is still looking for her first UFC win, she is 0-2 since joining. She is known for her ground game, but has very little too offer in terms of take downs, and that is a real issue for her. She is solid off her back, but constantly lunging for sloppy take down attempts has got her in serious danger threw out her career. Her striking is below average, and she has a negative striking differential. In comes Davis, the long time UFC veteran. She has fought everyone in her career, and typically loses too top talent, and defeats the fighter's she should defeat. She isn't very explosive, but is a smart fighter who uses volume, kicks and her fight IQ too help her secure victories. I doubt I bet on this fight, but the sloppiness of Stoliarenko makes me think this fight can end inside the distance. At +165 I see some value, but will wait and see if those odds move closer too the weekend.
Posted:
#7
Barriault vs Njokuani
Another contender series prospect making his debut. Njokuani won his contender series match back in September, and looked solid in that fight. He is a striker with good speed and power. He uses his range and movement well which makes him hard too hit. He does have good counter striking which is a great asset for him. His weakness is his take down defense, and once he does get taken down, he offers very little in terms of getting back up. In comes the experienced Barriault. 2-0 in his last 2 fights, he will look too keep things rolling. He is a well rounded fighter with solid striking and OK take downs. I think in this match up, he will have too avoid getting into a brawl, and be patient and close the distance and work in some grappling/ take downs. If he can do that, I think he will have success. I like Barriault at even money if he can avoid getting into a fire fight with Njokuani.
Posted:
#8
Dawodu vs Trizano
This should be a fun one. Both impressive fighters. Dawodu is a striker with solid power. He likes too march forward and apply pressure. He does throw some kicks too keep his opponent thinking, and also counters nicely. He is very technically sound, but his one negative is sometimes he is a little conservative. He doesn't always throw combinations, and sometimes gets very selective which get's him involved in very close fights. Trizano is coming off an impressive underdog victory last year. He is also a striker with good forward pressure and solid footwork/movement. He unlike Dawodu is the more aggressive fighter, and in this match up that could be the difference. I believe he has the cardio advantage, and that could also play a factor as the fight goes on. At +150 I will take Trizano.
Posted:
#9
Johns vs Castaneda
Another fun match up here. Johns comes into this fight having won his last 2 VIA stoppage. He is primarily a wrestler, but over his last 2 match ups, he has shown the ability too strike. He does have solid power and great speed and that was very evident in his last two victories. Will this be a classic case of a wrestler falling in love with his striking? And getting himself into trouble? We will see. Castaneda is 1-1 since joining the UFC, and he has shown too be a very fun/explosive fighter. He loves too march forward and throw a variety of attacks and is very tough and durable. He is always willing too take a shot too give a few back, and that could entice John's into a war. Will that benefit Castaneda? I think so. I like the value of Castaneda inside distance at +500 & the fight too end inside distance at +120. If John's comes in with a wrestling heavy game plan both those could be in trouble, but at those odds, I like my chances.
Posted:
#10
Erosa vs Peterson
First fight of the main card. Erosa is a very fun fighter, and is always looking for a stoppage. He is a solid striker and is always throwing with intentions. He does like too fight at range, but is not scared too enter the pocket and get into a fire fight. He is solid on the ground, but that isn't his strength. Both guys in this match up are very tough which should make for a solid fight. Peterson is 2-0 in his last 2 UFC matches, and will look too keep things rolling. He is a dirty fighter, who looks too get into the face of his opponent and frustrate him. He isn't scared too drag his opponent too the ground and has excellent submission defense. He is the true definition of a gritty fighter. I think the durability and toughness of both fighters has me leaning towards fight goes the distance at even money. I will wait until the weekend and make a final decision after weigh ins.
Posted:
#11
Battle vs Gore
These guys were slated too meet in the ultimate fighter final until Gore got hurt. Battle ended up winning the final against a late replacement, and didn't look great in that fight. Gore is a wrestler who uses his big shots too close distance and set up take down attempts. If he isn't successful he look's too break and reset and try again. He is pretty raw and very predicable, so it will be interesting too see how this fight play's out. Battle is a striker who uses his volume as an asset. He does have solid high kick's and uses them fairly well. He like Gore is still pretty raw, so this fight is a complete toss up. I will most likely pass on this fight unless I see something later in the week.
Posted:
#12
Allen vs Alvey
Late replacement for Allen. He is stepping in after that pretty bad KO loss back in December. Allen is a grappler. He has gotten away from that in his last couple fights, and it finally caught up too him in his last match up. In this match up he needs too fight smart, especially on short notice with limited time too recover from that bad KO loss. He does have solid kicks and good take downs and he will need those skills against the gritty Alvey, who will look too bait Allen into another striking match up. Alvey has not won a fight since 2018 & is 0-7-1 in that time frame. He has an unorthodox striking style with wild looping shots, but does have power. He is tough & gritty and is always looking too make the fight ugly, and I anticipate him doing the exact same thing in this match up, against the much more talented Allen. I will stay away from this fight altogether and see how Allen responds.
Posted:
#13
Rakhmonov vs Harris
This should be another fun fight. Rakhmonov is 2-0 in the UFC & 14-0 total. All wins VIA stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter who can win anywhere. He is a very creative striker & is hard too hit with solid movement. He does have the ability too work from the ground, but he hasn't been challenged by a wrestler of Harris caliber. Harris is also 2-0 since joining the UFC & is riding a 5 fight stoppage streak. He is also a well rounded fighter. He has wild striking attacks, and will use that too set up take downs. He does have good grappling & I think in order too have a chance in this fight he will need just that. If Harris can get out of the 1st round and into the 2nd, I think he will have the advantage later in the fight. Look for Harris too try and slow down Rakhmonov & try and frustrate him. I lean Harris, but I'm not ready too commit on the ML.
Posted:
#14
Soriano vs Maximov
Co main event. Maximov made his UFC debut back in September and got a victory. He is raw striker, but has shown the desire too improve. He has very good grappling and that is 100% his strength. For what it's worth he is in the Diaz circle, so you know he is getting solid looks in training. Soriano was riding high with an undefeated record until his last match. He got outclassed against Brandon Allen in his last match up. How will he bounce back? He is a striker with good power. He does set up solid take downs and has solid wrestling, but is mainly known for his striking. Cardio has been an issue later in fights, and that was very obvious in his last match up. Against a grapple heavy Maximov, that might prove to be the X FACTOR. Give me Maximov at +165.
Posted:
#19
Prelim picks,
Witt ML +115 - 1.5 units to win 1.73 units
Almeida/Marques over 1.5 rounds -110 - 1 unit to win 0.90 units
Davis/Stoliarenko fight to go distance (NO) +200 - 0.5 units to win 1 unit
Barriault ML -110 - 1.5 units to win 1.36 units
Barriault wins by decision +200 - 0.5 units to win 1 unit
Castaneda ML +162 - 1 unit to win 1.62 units
Castaneda wins inside distance +450 - 0.5 units to win 2.25 units
Posted:
#24
FULL CARD - 
Prelim picks,
Witt ML +115 - 1.5 units to win 1.73 units
Almeida/Marques over 1.5 rounds -110 - 1 unit to win 0.90 units
Davis/Stoliarenko fight to go distance (NO) +200 - 0.5 units to win 1 unit
Barriault ML -110 - 1.5 units to win 1.36 units
Barriault wins by decision +200 - 0.5 units to win 1 unit
Castaneda ML +162 - 1 unit to win 1.62 units
Castaneda wins inside distance +450 - 0.5 units to win 2.25 units
Main Card picks,
Erosa/Peterson fight to go distance (YES) -120 - 1.5 units to win 1.25 units
Maximov ML +162 - 2 units to win 3.25 units
Parlay,
Bondar ML/ Gore ML +116 - 1 unit to win 1.16 units
GL ALL
Hot Forum Topics
