Posted:
#1
2021- 73-97 +9.13 units
YTD 18-36 -4.94 units
Decent card this coming weekend. I will try and get write ups/insight done earlier this week. 
Picks will be posted Saturday morning as always.
GL ALL 
UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Makhachev
Posted:
#2
Altamirano vs Hernandez
Opening fight of the night. Two contender series prospects making their official UFC debut. Altamirano is a fun striker with good power. He has solid movement and is athletic and explosive. Even though he has solid power, he will pick his spots and will wait for his openings and try too capitalize on them. His takedown defense is average, but in his previous fights he has shown the ability too fight back up too his feet, and wont just accept bottom position. Hernandez is primarily a grappler, and a decent one at that. His striking is average, with his strength being his accuracy. His jab is probably his best asset on the feet, but he does have some technical flaws from what I've watched. I don't see him being able too control the quick and explosive Altamirano in the grappling/ wrestling exchanges, and I give Altamirano the advantage in the striking. Early odds have Altamirano as a +110 ML dog, and that seems appealing at first glance.
Posted:
#3
Brahimaj vs Gillmore
Striker vs Grappler. Brahimaj taking this on short notice. He will look too get back on track after that bad loss earlier this year. He is a good grappler with all 9 of his wins coming VIA submission. His problem since joining the UFC has been game planning, and sticking too it. His striking is average, and his clear path too victory would be his grappling. Can he commit too his game plan? He needs too come out and control the exchanges and dictate the fight. If he does that and uses his grappling, I think he will have success. Gilmore is a striker with solid power. He does have good kicks & he uses those too keep his opponent at bay, so it will be interesting too see how Brahimaj deals with them. Odds are sitting around -350 for Brahimaj which in my opinion is crazy for someone who has shown inconsistency's. I do think Gilmore is a good match up for Brahimaj too get back on track. I wont be betting on him, but I might explore a submission prop later in the week.
Posted:
#4
Perez vs Martinez
This should be a fun matchup. Perez is a fun fighter with a lot of experience in his career. He is a good striker & also has solid grappling/ wrestling. He has good speed & movement and is always willing too get himself into a fire fight. He tends too shy away from his wrestling, but in this match up I think it might benefit him. Martinez is a technical striker with solid kicks. He like Perez does have solid grappling, but is always more willing too stand and strike. I think whichever fighter commits too the grappling should have more success. I don't see much in terms of betting value, but I will wait and see how things shape up later in the week.
Posted:
#5
Frey vs Goldy
First ladies fight of the night. Frey is riding a 2 fight win streak coming into this fight. She is an experienced fighter who uses her experience and patience as an asset against younger inexperienced fighters. She uses her strength too control her opponent and looks too tie up her opponent and has solid clinch work. She uses looping shot's in order too close the distance and back her opponent up. She likes too grind down her opponent, and I don't think this fight will be any different. Goldy is 1-2 since joining the UFC. She is a short but very strong fighter. She fight's with a good pace and is always marching forward & bouncing around. I anticipate Frey will look too slow down Goldy & tie her up and grapple. She does have solid cardio and with her movement and strength, I think she will be able too fight off Frey and keep her at bay. If she can do that, I think the volume of Goldy will be enough too touch up Frey and secure a victory. At +155 I like this spot for Goldy.
Posted:
#8
McKinney vs Ziam
This is another solid fight. This fight was originally booked for November but was cancelled due too COVID. Odds in November opened with McKinney as a slight favorite, this time around Ziam is a slight favorite. McKinney won his debut with a 7 second KO last summer. He is a long & powerful striker who likes too fight at range. What people might not know is he is a really good wrestler, and in this fight I think he will use that against Ziam. I think if he mixes in his striking early & mixes in some wrestling, he will be a tough match up for Ziam. In comes Ziam who is riding a 2 fight win streak. He is a long striker who is very technical. He is a very patient and disciplined fighter, who is completely fine with picking his shots & waiting for his openings. He does have solid clinch work with solid elbows, so that is always something too watch. I think McKinney's ability too strike and mix in wrestling will be enough too frustrate Ziam, and at +110 I really like the value.
Posted:
#9
Rong vs Bahamondes
Two young prospects go at it in this fight. Both guys coming off wins late last year. Bahamondes is a volume striker who uses his movement & footwork well. He is big for the division so that is worth noting. His take down defense help up well in his last fight, and that could play a factor against Rong in this match up. His offensive wrestling isn't a real threat. His path too victory is clear, and that is defend the take downs, and out strike Rong. 1-1 since joining the UFC, Rong will look too stack wins. He is only 21 years old, and has a well rounded skill set. He is a solid striker with good power. He does have a negative striking differential, so that is concerning against Bahamondes. One thing I noticed about Rong, is that he is at his best when he is marching forward and dictating the exchanges. When that is the case, his striking opens up his take downs, which makes him a real concern. I like the value of Rong, but I'm not ready too commit just yet. I will monitor these odds as the week rolls on.
Posted:
#10
Nunes vs Pascual
Short notice debut for Pascual. She is a Muay Thai fighter with solid kicks and knees. She is big for the division, and will have the size & strength advantage in this match up. She is a technical fighter, but will have her hands full against the ever so dangerous Nunes. In comes Nunes who is on a 6 fight stoppage streak. She is very dangerous and is always looking for the finish. Her last fight was at 135 pounds & this fight will take place at 145 so it will be interesting too see how she carry's the weight. The square & obvious bet would be Nunes inside the distance at even money, but I'm not going too commit just yet.
Posted:
#11
Rodrigues vs Petrosyan
Main card opener. Rodrigues is 2-0 since joining the UFC. He had a nice KO in his last win in October. He is a well rounded fighter. He is a solid striker with good power & has decent wrestling. In this match up I think he will need his grappling too keep Petrosyan thinking & backing up. Can he take down Petrosyan & control him? I think that is the X factor for him. Petrosyan is making his official UFC debut. He is a legit striker. All his fights, win or lose have resulted in a finish. He is a clean striker with solid power & in this match up I think he will have the clear striking advantage. His take down defense isn't great, but he has shown the ability too work back too his feet once taken down. If he can do that in this match up, I think he will have Rodrigues tired & vulnerable later in the fight. I'm leaning Petrosyan ML at +150, and I also like the over 1.5 rounds at +110.
Posted:
#13
Tsarukyan vs Alvarez
This should be a good fight. Tsarukyan opened the week around -300 & has come down on some books around -220. Both guys are coming of impressive stoppage victories. I'm having a hard time getting a read on this fight. Tsarukyan is a great wrestler. He has solid striking and uses his athleticism & footwork too keep his opponent off balance & sets up his takedowns nicely. He also has solid kicks which he likes too mix in also. Alvarez is huge for the division, even more so if he comes in overweight again. He uses his length and size well and manages his range nicely. He is a solid grappler in his own right, and has a real knack for the finish, regardless of the position or circumstance he might find himself in. Since joining the UFC he hasn't defended a takedown, and has been OK working off his back. Will that finally catch up too him against the technical wrestler of Tsarukyan? I think so, but something isn't sitting right going against the dangerous Alvarez. I lean Tsarukyan, but I might pass or at least wait until weigh ins too make a final decision.
Posted:
#14
Kim vs Cachoeira
Lackluster fight here for the main card. Kim is on a 2 fight skid. She looks too get things back on track. She is a volume striker who likes too fight at range & use her footwork and movement too keep her opponent at bay. I don't think much changes in this match up, I think she will look too avoid the big shots of Cachoeira, and outwork her & maybe even mix in some take downs. Cachoeira is a striker. If she isn't KO'ing her opponent, she is normally losing the fight. She uses forward pressure with power shots too try and overwhelm her opponent. In her last match up, she showed just how vulnerable she was on the ground, & you hope Kim noticed the same thing. I think Kim will look too stay on the outside and outpoint Cachoeira, and if she gets caught, revert too her grappling/wrestling too slow down Cachoeira. I lean Kim in this fight.
Posted:
#15
Cirkunov vs Turman
Pretty lame co main event. Battle of two grapple heavy fighters. Cirkunov is on a 2 fight losing streak & will look too get back on track. His striking is OK, and mainly uses his big shots too set up his take down attempts. He has shown solid kicks threw out his career so keep an eye out for that. I think he will be the bigger & stronger fighter in this match up, which in my opinion will benefit him in the grappling exchanges. Turman was once a highly touted prospect, but since joining the UFC he's a measly 2-3. He is still just 25 years old. He like Cirkunov has OK striking, and his strength is clearly his grappling. He does have solid footwork and uses it well too keep his opponent from timing him up. The lack of striking and grappling history of these two guys have me leaning over 2.5 rounds at +105. If I had too choose a side I would lean Cirkunov, but I will most likely just play a round prop.
Posted:
#16
Makhachev vs Green
10 days notice main event for Green. Like him or hate him, give Green credit for stepping in. He will have his hands full in this match up. Makhachev is an elite fighter. Trains with the best, and its very obvious in his body of work. He has solid striking, elite grappling/wresting, great fight IQ. He truly is a complete fighter. One thing about his resume, is he hasn't fought great competition. Green isn't a top talent in the division, but his style and experience I think will be a solid test for Islam. No need too breakdown Green, as we just did so 2 weeks ago. He's going into this fight with nothing too lose, and that could be an asset for him. I think this will be an exciting fight early, but once Makhachev settles in, he should dominate. I will most likely pass on this & just enjoy the main event.
Posted:
#19
Prelim picks,
Altamirano ML +140 - 1 unit to win 1.40 units
Brahimaj wins in round 2 +500 - 0.5 units to win 2.5 units
Brahimaj wins in round 3 +1200 - 0.5 units to win 6 units
McKinney ML +100 - 2 units to win 2 units
Rong/Bahamondes fight to go distance (NO) +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit
Posted:
#22
FINAL CARD - 
Prelim picks,
Altamirano ML +140 - 1 unit to win 1.40 units
Brahimaj wins in round 2 +500 - 0.5 units to win 2.5 units
Brahimaj wins in round 3 +1200 - 0.5 units to win 6 units
McKinney ML +100 - 2 units to win 2 units
Rong/Bahamondes fight to go distance (NO) +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit
Main Card picks,
Petrosyan ML +130 - 1 unit to win 1.30 units
Rodrigues/Petrosyan over 1.5 rounds +115 - 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Cirkunov/Turman over 2.5 rounds +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit
Parlay,
Martinez ML/ Tsarukyan ML/ Kim ML +200 - 1 unit to win 2 units
GL ALL
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