UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

YTD- 59-105 +3.17 units

Decent card this coming weekend,

Busy week ahead, I will try and get write ups down by mid week.

GL ALL  

Taira vs Candelario 

Opening fight of the night. Taira making his UFC debut. He is a solid prospect who is 10-0 in his short career, 8 of those wins VIA stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with solid striking & good grappling. He is a patient striker who likes too pick his shots, and if he gets you hurt he does a good job at capitalizing on his opportunities. His take down attempts are average, but if he feels he has an opportunity he will relentlessly attack the take down until he secures it. Candelario also making his official UFC debut. He lost on the contender series last summer VIA decision. He has a well rounded skill set overall. He has solid striking, decent BJJ & his toughness is for sure an asset. He isn’t afraid to make a fight ugly, and that seems to be when he’s at his best. Candelario did have a 4 year layoff that stemmed from 2017 to 2021 so that is concerning, but he’s fought twice since. I think In this fight Taira will be the more technical fighter, but Candelario will be the more aggressive and urgent fighter. At +200 I like the value of Candelario as I think he can outwork and do enough to secure a victory in this close fight. 

Mazany vs Young 

First and only ladies fight of the night. Mazany is in the middle of her 2nd UFC stint. She is 1-2 since rejoining the promotion. She has a grapple heavy style and that is her best path too victory in most of her fights. She averages just over 5 take downs per 15 minutes. Her most glaring flaw is how she deals with forward pressure and aggressive strikers. She tends to fold against aggressive strikers and has been finished in 4 of her 7 UFC fights. In comes Young who is 0-2 since joining the UFC. She is a solid striker and possess decent power for the weight class.  She has solid forward pressure, and that could help her in this fight. Issue is her inability to defend the take down, and work back to her feet once taken down. She is easily controlled once on the ground, and against someone who is mainly only looking for take downs and excels in control time, that could be a real issue. I think Mazany wins this in boring fashion and grinds out young for 3 rounds. I lean Mazany by decision at +175. 

Levy vs Breeden 

Interesting fight. Two guys who lost their UFC debuts. Breeden lost his debut on short notice. He is a solid striker who manages his range nicely. He has a nice variety of strikes & is very creative on this feet. He is more of a volume fighter then a power puncher & is always throwing shots towards his opponent. His take down defense is decent, and I'm sure he will need that in this fight. He has showed in some of his fights if taken down, he can work back to his feet so that is good if your looking to back him in this fight. In comes Levy who is a solid prospect. He lost his debut in disappointing fashion. He is another grapple heavy fighter who is always looking for take downs. He has a wide range of take downs attempts and will look for any opportunity to get his opponent to the mat. He is solid on the ground, but sometimes shows his inexperience by chasing submissions and eventually giving up a dominate position. I anticipate Levy to come into this fight more composed & lean Levy by decision at +165. 

Green vs Lainesse 

This should be a fun fight. Green is 1-1 since joining the UFC & looked solid in his last fight. He is a solid grappler with solid pressure. His striking is solid and has very nice kicks in his bag of tricks. He is a threat on the ground regardless of top or bottom position. He will be the faster fighter in this match up. In his career he has shown to have poor striking defense, so that is concerning against someone with the power of Lainesse. In comes Lainesse, who is making his UFC debut. He is a powerful grappler with real finishing ability. He isn't the most technical striker, but his power is always an X factor. He likes to establish his striking early, then shoot for clean take downs right up the middle. If he gets on top, he is looking to deliver damaging blows, and is always looking for the finish. Lainesse power and take down ability, combined with Green's poor defense has me leaning towards taking him as a +120 underdog. I will make a final decision later in the week. 

Romanov vs Sherman 

This fight was supposed to happen last weekend, but is re booked for Saturday. Romanov is 4-0 since joining the UFC & 15-0 overall in his MMA career. He is a dominate wrestler with good speed and power for his size. He dominated his first 2 UFC fights & his last UFC fight, but the Espino fight a year ago caused him some issues and he showed some of his shortcomings. In that decision victory his cardio was in question & his take down defense was also tested and looked vulnerable at times. Sherman isn't a cardio machine or a take down artist, but that fight did show that Romanov is vulnerable in some areas. Sherman is 0-3 in his last 3 UFC fights. He is a solid boxer with decent footwork. His strength is his volume, and he never stops throwing hands, regardless of the damage he takes or his cardio state. He is always marching forward and likes to stay in the face of his opponent. His issue is head movement, which is very minimal which causes him to get battered. Sherman is tough and can take a beating, so over 1.5 rounds at +220 seems juicy, but your playing with fire if you decide to back that bet. I will wait until the weekend and see if I'm ready for that hail marry.

Lacerda vs Figueredo 

This should be a competitive fight. Lacerda made his debut last year and lost by KO. He is a very dangerous fighter & has a 100% finish rate, win or lose. He is a good striker with nice kicks and solid forward pressure. If he manages to get you on the ground he does have solid top control, but his take downs aren't very clean and could use some work. In comes Figueredo. 1-1 since joining the UFC. He is an aggressive striker with solid power in his hands. He does have solid grappling and averages just over 3 take downs per fight, and that could play a factor in this fight. He is very capable on the ground and does a good job at controlling his opponent, and is always live for a submission. Ultimately I think the take downs & control of Figueredo will be too much in this fight. I like Figueredo on the ML at +110 as the more complete and experienced fighter. 

Jotko vs Meerschaert 

Main card opener. Meerschaert is riding a 3 fight submission win streak. Submission or bust, Meerschaert will look to keep things rolling. As always he will look to get the fight to the ground, but his take downs aren't very clean or effective. He excels when his opponent engages in grappling exchanges and if gets to the ground he makes quick work and is always hunting for submissions. Other then that, his striking is below average & has had chin issues in the past, although in his last couple fights he did show he could still take some pretty big shots and stay in the fight. Jotko is 4-1 in his last 5. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He isn't the most powerful striker, but has great movement and uses his speed and volume as an asset. He does have solid take down defense and good fight IQ which could ultimately be the X factor in this fight. I think Jotko will stick & move and look to touch up Meerschaert for 3 rounds & use his experience and fight IQ in order to avoid any bad positions and ultimately get the win. I like Jotko by decision at +220, but I don't know if I trust  Meerschaert to last 3 rounds in what could be a beating. Another option is adding him in a parlay on the ML. I will wait until the weekend to make a final decision. 

Elkins vs Connelly 

Two gritty fighters match up in what should be an entertaining fight. Elkins is coming off that round 1 KO loss back in December. He is a tough, brawler style fighter who is relentless in his attack. He is the definition of a grinder. He will throw heavy shots, which he uses to set up his grappling. If he gets on top he does have solid top control and looks to land heavy strikes from top position. He does average just under 3 take downs per fight, so it will be interesting to see how this fight plays out. He has taken a ton of damage in his career, so it will be interesting to see how he holds up at this point in his career. Connelly is 1-1 since joining the UFC. He fought two high level fighters in those fights and both went too decision. He fights with a high motor and puts a lot of pressure on his opponent. He likes to march forward and stay in the face of his opponent. He like Elkins is very tough and gritty and welcomes a brawl. I think in this fight Connelly will be the fresher fighter and have more too offer. I think the odds makers have this wrong and at +150 I will be backing Connelly on the ML. 

Gordon vs Dawson 

Two guys who are rolling. Gordon is riding a 3 fight win streak. He bounces from Featherweight & Lightweight. He is a solid striker who fights with a good pace & pressure. He does have solid wrestling, but a wrestling heavy gave plan could be a tall task against the high level opponent such as Dawson. He does have a solid striking differential of 5-3 which is pretty impressive. He showed in his last fight he is fairly easy to take down, which could cause him all sorts of trouble against a grapple heavy opponent like Dawson. In comes Dawson who is 5-0-1 since joining the UFC. His last fight ended in a DRAW, but he could have easily won that decision. He is a relentless grappler, and if he gets on top, he has very good top pressure and controls his opponent for long periods of time. His striking is solid, but it's mainly there too set up his grappling & wrestling. He averages just over 4 take downs per fight which could be the X factor in this fight.  I like Dawson to win this fight, so I will most likely back him on the ML as a parlay piece, or roll with him inside distance at +250. I will wait until later in the week to make a final decision. 

Fili vs Brito 

This should be a really good fight. Fili is looking to get back on track after a no contest and a loss in his last 2 fights. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He is a technical striker with solid volume. He also has wrestling in his back pocket & it might be wise to mix things up in this fight. He does get hit a lot and has a negative striking differential, so that is something to keep an eye on. He has fought top talent in his career and has loads of experience. In comes Brito who is looking for his first UFC win. He lost his debut back in January. He is an athletic fighter with solid speed and footwork. He has solid forward pressure and will throw big shots & kicks to keep his opponent off balance and eventually work in take downs. If he gets on top he does have solid top pressure and is very capable at securing submissions. I think Brito has the skill set to nullify the striking of Fili and control the pace and dictate the fight. At +200 I think Brito has serious value and I think these odds are very wide in what could be a very close fight. 

Arlovski vs Collier 

Co-main event. Arlovski makes the walk for the 54th time in his professional career. He is riding a 3 fight win streak at the young age of 43. He is one of the most accomplished Heavyweight's of all time, and has fought just about everyone. Skill wise he has transformed his style later in his career. He used to rely on his power, but now he is a more complete and measured fighter. He has solid striking and nice kicks. He moves well and is still pretty quick for his age. His experience always gives him the advantage in terms of fight IQ, and he uses that as an asset more then ever now late in his career. His last 9 wins all come by decision. In comes Collier who won his last fight VIA submission back in January. He is 5-5 since joining the UFC. He has fought at 3 weight classes in his career, started at Middleweight, then Light Heavyweight & now Heavyweight. He is a well rounded fighter. His striking is solid, but lacks the 1 punch power, but rely's more so on his volume striking. He has shown improved grappling as of late, but against the experienced Arlovski, I think it will be hard too outpoint him, and with the lack of power, I think Arlovski will do enough to secure another victory in this match up. 

Font vs Vera 

Main event & it should be a good fight. Font coming into this fight after a disappointing loss to Aldo in December. He is a dynamic striker who is technical and carry's power in his hands. He is quick and likes to fight at range, and bounces in & out of the pocket nicely. He has a positive striking differential of 3-2 which is impressive. He is a gritty and tough fighter and his chin was tested with some pretty big shots in his last fight. He does have wrestling in his back pocket, but his clear strength is his striking, and it should be on full display this weekend. Chito Vera is riding a 2 fight win streak & looks to keep things rolling. He is a Muay Thai striker who uses all of his weapons. He is a creative striker who is dangerous on the feet & has slick submissions on his resume. He is extremely durable and has yet to be finished in his career but he does have a negative striking differential, which could be concerning against a dynamic striker like Font. I like Vera as a fighter, but against an elite striker like Font, he could be in for a long night. If Vera wants to win this fight, he will need a well executed game plan which consists of take downs & a lot of control time to neutralize the dangerous striking of Font. I don't know if I will be betting this fight, but as of right now I lean Font, but don't feel great about it against the durable and dangerous Vera.  

Jotko decision @ +200 is catching my eye

Also looking at Fili/Brito doesn't go the distance at @ +116...that fight should be a wild one. 

@The_Fist

 I like Jotko by decision also, just don't know If I can trust Meerschaert for 3 rounds. I might just include him in a parlay If I find something to pair it with! 

GL this weekend 

FYI - 

Font missed weight by 2.5 pounds. Fight will take place at catch weight. 

Trying to finalize picks. I have a few fights I feel different about today then I did earlier in the week. Normally that's a bad thing. 

Prelim Picks, 

Levy wins inside distance +210 - 1 unit to win 2.10 units 

Levy vs Breeden fight to go distance (NO) +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units 

Lainesse ML +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units 

Lainesse wins inside distance +200 - 1 unit to win 2 units 

Figueredo ML +110 - 2.5 units to win 2.75 units 

Romanov vs Sherman over 1.5 rounds +240 - 0.5 units to win 1.20 units 

Main Card Picks, 

Connelly ML +155 - 1.5 units to win 2.32 units 

Dawson wins inside distance +260 - 0.5 units to win 1.30 units 

Brito ML +200 - 1 unit to win 2 units 

Vera wins inside distance +300 - 0.5 units to win 1.50 units 

Vera by submission +600 - 0.25 units to win 1.50 units 

Parlay, 

Jotko ML/Arlovski ML +171 - 1 unit to win 1.71 units  

FULL CARD -  

Prelim Picks, 

Levy wins inside distance +210 - 1 unit to win 2.10 units 

Levy vs Breeden fight to go distance (NO) +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units 

Lainesse ML +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units 

Lainesse wins inside distance +200 - 1 unit to win 2 units 

Figueredo ML +110 - 2.5 units to win 2.75 units 

Romanov vs Sherman over 1.5 rounds +240 - 0.5 units to win 1.20 units 

Main Card Picks, 

Connelly ML +155 - 1.5 units to win 2.32 units 

Dawson wins inside distance +260 - 0.5 units to win 1.30 units 

Brito ML +200 - 1 unit to win 2 units 

Vera wins inside distance +300 - 0.5 units to win 1.50 units 

Vera by submission +600 - 0.25 units to win 1.50 units

Parlay, 

Jotko ML/Arlovski ML +171 - 1 unit to win 1.71 units

GL ALL 

Really starting too like Taira after initially liking Candelario. I might add something shortly 

Taira vs Candelario is now OFF and postponed to May 14th 

Nice extensive write ups.  Thanks.