Posted:
#1
YTD 65-80 +16.91 units
Nice too be back after a weekend off. Solid card this weekend, with some very good match ups.
Analysis and picks will come as the week goes on 
GL ALL 
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
Posted:
#2
Smolka vs Morales
Opening fight & this should be a fun one. Smolka returning after a year layoff. He is primarily a striker with solid footwork and good movement. He will also look too mix things up and averages around 2 take downs per fight. He is a very durable fighter, and besides his 3 submission losses, he has never been finished in his career. In comes Morales. Another striker with solid power. He is a pressure fighter and loves to march forward and throw big shots. He does have a wrestling background, but relies on his power and striking more often then not. I think the movement and footwork of Smolka will give Morales trouble with his striking and throw of his timing. I lean Smolka in this fight, but it should be a close one.
Posted:
#3
Morono vs Gall
Another fun fight. Morono riding a 2 fight win streak. He has clean striking with decent power. He is a volume striker who will look too breakdown his opponents. He uses his footwork well to stick & move & frustrate his opponents. He also has solid clinch work and will look too mix things up with solid elbows. His one downfall is his inconsistency. Some fight's he looks great & others he seems uninterested and unprepared which is a big cause for concern when hes a big favorite like he is in this fight. Gall coming off that solid win back in July via submission. Like Morono, he seems to be inconsistent from fight to fight. He is a solid grappler who is looking to get on top of his opponent and control the fight. Once on top, he does have heavy pressure and is very dangerous. He does have a negative striking differential, so if he cant get this fight too the ground, I think he will be in trouble against a clean striker like Morono. I think these odds are too wide, but I cant convince myself too take the underdog here. I think this fight has a solid chance too end inside distance, and at +130 I think that is worth a look.
Posted:
#4
Murzakanov vs Vanderaa
First heavyweight fight of the night. Murzakanov making his UFC debut. He is a solid striker with legit 1 punch power. He is small for the weight class, but makes up for it with his quickness and hand speed. He also has a wrestling background but tends too rely on his striking/power more often. Vanderaa making a quick turnaround after his bad loss back in October against Romanov. He is the much bigger fighter of the two. He has solid striking also and uses his reach and jab well. He likes to fight at range and use that reach too keep his opponents at bay, and that will be important in this fight too avoid the big power shots. He also has a wrestling background, and he might use that in this fight too neutralize the power of Murzakanov. I think these odds are a little wide and I see some value on Vanderaa, but I think the smarter bet is over rounds in this fight. Currently sitting at -135 for over 1.5 rounds, I will watch that closely as the week goes on.
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#5
Gruetzemacher vs Puelles
Opposite styles in this match up. Gruetzemacher primarily a striker is coming off a victory in his last match up. He is a gritty fighter who likes to grind and wear down his opponent. He likes to fight at close range and use his power shots too damage his opponent. He throws a lot of volume which can frustrate his opponent, and his cardio seems to be an asset as the fight goes on. Puelles is riding a 3 fight win streak. He is a grappler who likes to use kicks too manage distance and keep his opponents off balance. He averages just over 3 take downs per fight, and that should be his game plan in this match up. He has a negative striking differential, so he should look for take downs early and often. If Gruetzemacher stuffs the take downs early I smell trouble for Puelles, but I lean Puelles in this match up at around even money.
Posted:
#6
Menifield vs Knight
Hold your breathe. This is the 3rd time this fight is booked, lets hope is happens. Should be a fun fight. Menifield has improved a bunch since this fight was originally booked around a year ago. His knock was his cardio, and in his last fight, he showed a big improvement in that area. Will it hold up again? I would say that's the X factor. Menifield is a powerful striker with good speed and likes too push the pace. He will have too avoid the huge exchanges that Knight will try and suck him into, and fight smart and preserve his cardio. His take down defense is around 80% so he should be able too fight off some shots from Knight. Knight also a power puncher who is a very explosive opponent. He shows many different angles with his punches and can catch anyone at anytime. His cardio unlike Menifield, is tried and contested and is never an issue. This should be a fun fight. I might just sit back and enjoy, but I can see a more conservative approach by both guys early. I lean Menifield but don't see any value betting wise.
Posted:
#7
Vlismas vs Martin
Name change. Previously Cheyanne Buys, will look too keep things going after that nice win this summer. She is a volume striker who throws a lot of volume and combinations. She's quick and is always moving while throwing her shots and has a positive 3/1 striking differential. Her takedown defense is average and she might need that in this fight. Martin looking too get back on track after a submission loss back in February. She is an average striker with solid power. She is a patient striker who will look for her shots, and make them count. She does get hit more often then not while striking, but that's mainly because she's looking for her own perfect shot. She is always looking for the take down if the opportunity presents itself, and against the aggressive Vlismas, that might just be their for the taking. At -200 odds I think Vlismas is a little over valued. I don't like Martin enough, but I can see her fighting too her advantage and try and grind out something ugly. I will most likely pass on this.
Posted:
#8
Kape vs Zhumagulov
Interesting fight. Kape has fought in some weird fights since joining the UFC. He is a very confident fighter, sometimes too confident. He is a very creative & explosive striker. He will use multiple attacks and look for his power shots. He likes to bounce in and out of the pocket and look for that big shot. He does have a negative striking differential, so he is vulnerable at times. He does have wrestling credentials, but hasn't displayed that latley. Zhumagulov is coming off a submission win this summer. He is an OK striker with solid power. He throws big shots and then will look for the takedown. His takedowns are relentless and he looks too tire his opponent and control them in his exchanges. He is a tough opponent who has only been finished once in his 19 fight career. At +200 I like the value in Zhumagulov.
Posted:
#11
Matthews vs Wells
Another fun fight here. Wells coming off that impressive win back in June after a 2 year layoff. He has legit one punch power, and he uses that too close the distance and set up take downs. He averages 2 take downs per fight, and once on the ground he does solid work. Matthews is a well rounded fighter with solid wresting. He is a creative striker who looks too use different attacks and show his opponents a bunch of different looks. His knock in the past is his fight IQ. He tends to make bad decisions, which ultimately costs him positions and fights. I lean Wells at +175, but I like the fight to end inside distance at even money more. I will monitor these lines and make a decision later in the week.
Posted:
#12
Pitolo vs Todorovic
Two guys looking too get back on track. Pitolo on a 3 fight skid. He is primarily a striker with good power & is creative and athletic. He is a tough fighter with a solid chin, but at times takes too many shots and gets down early in the fight. He does have wrestling credentials, and averages 3 take downs per fight. I think he will look too mix things up in this fight, and get back on track. Todorovic is a complete fighter and a technical striker with solid power. He also is on a 2 fight losing streak. He likes to march forward and throw a lot of volume. He isn't always looking for the take downs, but is accomplished on the ground, and if he gets on top he does have heavy top control. I lean Pitolo as an underdog here.
Posted:
#13
Allen vs Curtis
First fight on the main card. Curtis riding high off a big underdog win last month. He is taking this fight on short notice. He has clean striking and legit power as he showed in his last fight. He does mix in kicks well too keep his opponent off balance. He is quick on his feet and is always moving. His power is always a problem, and I think Allen will know that in this fight. Allen started out a grappler, but has transformed his skill set too more of a striker. He has shown his willingness too strike with his opponents, even though he has the clear cut advantage in the grappling. I think it will be wise too move back too his roots in this match up, and look too tie up Curtis and neutralize his movement and dangerous power. At the current odds I don't see much value, so I will sit back and see how this plays out.
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#15
Crute vs Hill
Both fighters coming off losses, and both suffered weird injuries. Crute had a weird leg injury back in April, will look too get back on track. He is solid striker with legit 1 punch power. He does have a positive 2/1 striking differential. He does have good take downs also, and averages just under 5 per fight, at a 80% success rate. I think he will need that in this fight. Hill on the the other hand is primarily a striker. He likes too fight at range and pick his shots. He also has solid kicks which he uses too manage his range really well. He is also coming off an injury in his last fight where he dislocated his arm pretty bad. I lean Crute, but the bet I like in this fight is over 1.5 rounds at -115. I think both guys will be a little gun shy coming off the injuries, and I think Crute will look for the take downs early and slow this fight down.
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#16
Santos vs Guida
Interesting fight here. Both later in their respective careers. Santos coming off that last second KO loss, in a fight he was most likely going too win. That loss was his first loss in 8 years. He is a technical striker with solid power in his strikes. He is well rounded and has a solid ground game with legit submissions. One knock he does have is his cardio, which tends too fade as the fight goes on. In this fight against someone like Guida, that might be an issue. Guida never seems too slow down. Almost 40 years old and still going strong. He lost a split decision last time out back in late August. He fights a relentless style, and unlike Santos, he gets stronger as the fight goes on. He has solid striking and good wrestling and is a complete fighter. He is always moving which makes him hard too tie up, and hard too hit. If Guida can survive the first half of the fight, and doesn't get down on the scorecards, I think he has a legit chance at winning this fight. I lean Guida at +165.
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#17
Fiziev vs Riddell
This fight will be awesome. Striker vs striker & this should be fun. Should be a very close fight. Fiziev coming off that victory against Bobby Green which was a great fight. He showed toughness and great technique. He did slow down in that 3rd round in that fight, so will his cardio be an issue if this fight goes the distance against someone like Riddell? Riddell also coming off an impressive win against a solid opponent in Drew Dober. Showed legitimate skills in that fight, and great toughness. I think the odds are spot on at around even money on both sides. I will most likely sit back and enjoy this match, but I do lean Fiziev as the more creative striker.
Posted:
#18
Font vs Aldo
Main event, and this should be a close one. The legend of Aldo continues. Aldo one of the greatest of all time will look too keep things going here, & he will have his hands full. He is a great counter striker and has very dangerous kicks. He does have solid wrestling and is more then capable on the ground, but prefers too keep things standing and inflect damage on his opponent. Font on the other hand is a technical striker with fast hand speed and a great jab. He has great volume and great movement. I think the 5 round setting favors Font, and the longer the fight goes on, the better chance Font has at winning. I wont be betting this fight, but I think it will be a fun contest. Can Aldo continue too prove people wrong late in his career? We will see.
Posted:
#21
Prelim picks,
Gruetzemacher/Puelles fight to go distance(NO) +120 - 1 unit to win 1.20 units
Matthews/Wells fight to go distance(NO) -110 - 1 unit to win 0.90 units
Wells wins inside distance +300 - 0.5 units to win 1.50 units
Zhumagulov ML +240 - 1 unit to win 2.40 units
Pitolo ML +137 - 1.5 units to win 2.06 units
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