UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

YTD 36-66 +2.13 units 

 

Very entertaining card this past weekend.

 

Small profit that keeps us trending in the right direction 

 

GL ALL 

Saldana vs Souza 

Opening fight of the night. This is in front of a full crowd in Columbus, not in Vegas at the APEX. This is a great fight to open the night. Saldana is 1-1 since joining the UFC. He is a very creative and versatile striker. He has good offense and defensive striking. He does have solid kicks when he uses them, which could play a factor in this fight. He has had issues dealing with wrestlers in the past, but I'm not sure if that plays a big factor in this fight. Souza lost his UFC debut on short notice back in November. He did look solid in that fight, but like many of his fights, volume is an issue, and that is always something to worry about in close match ups. He is a karate style striker who likes to bounce around. He does have solid kicks when he uses them, but his main asset is his counter punching. He will wait for you too attack, and likes to avoid and strike back with solid counter punches. His volume really does worry me, and against a solid striker like Saldana, that could be a real issue. I lean Saldana at around even money, but this should be a really close fight. 

Khizriev vs Tiuliulin 

Two fighters making official UFC debut's. Khizriev is coming off his contender series win over a year ago. He is a solid prospect who has really good grappling. That is normally his path to victory, and nothing changes here. He has OK striking, but like a lot of grapplers, he uses his big shots to set up his take downs. If he gets on top he is very active, and is always looking to inflect damage and hunt for submissions. If he sticks to a grappling game plan, this should be a straight forward victory for him. Tiuliulin making his UFC debut also. He is a striker who likes to march forward and invite his opponent into a dirty and chaotic fight. He has solid power and is a very aggressive striker who is always looking for a finish. He has holes in his take down defense, which I think ultimately cost's him this fight. He is the better striker, but Khizriev will know this and should come in with a solid game plan that will neutralize Tiuliulin. I will most likely pass on this fight, unless I see a prop later in the week. 

Nicolau vs Dvorak 

Another very close fight in what should be a really enjoyable fight. Both guys undefeated since joining the UFC. Nicolau is a solid striker with good technique. He does have solid grappling, so it will be interesting too see how he approaches this fight. If he gets on top, he looks to control his opponent, and transition from one position to the next, and is pretty sound fundamentally. Dvorak 3-0 sine joining the UFC. His last loss comes back in 2012, which is very impressive. He is a very good striker with good pace and pressure. He has solid kicks and mixes them in well with his striking. His strength for sure is his striking, but he has shown good scrambling ability so that is something too monitor if Nicolau comes in with a grapple heavy game plan. I think if this is a stand up fight only, Dvorak wins with better striking & kicks, but if Nicolau mixes in his grappling, it could change the outcome of the fight. Originally I leaned Nicolau, but I'm starting to think Dvorak can defend the grappling early and take over the fight as it gets into the later rounds. I will wait and see how the odds look later in the week. 

Gutierrez vs Danaa 

Striker vs Striker. Both guys on decent winning streaks. Danaa has won his last 3, all VIA stoppage. He is a good striker with very good speed, and he uses that to his advantage. He has an impressive 3-1 striking differential. His take down defense is OK, but he has shown the ability to scramble and work back to his feet in the past. Against the grueling Gutierrez, the real question for Danaa will be how he holds up in rounds 2-3 if he cant find a finish early. In comes Gutierrez who will look too keep things rolling. He is a very good kick boxer, with legit kicks and follows up with solid striking. He mixes that in well, and has had success with that style thus far in the UFC. He has been very durable and his cardio has been a real asset for him as his fights get into the later rounds. I understand the power threat of Danaa early, but the experience of Gutierrez has me thinking he can survive the initial attack from Danaa, and start to take over the fight in rounds 2 & 3. At + money I like these spots and will most likely back Gutierrez on the ML. 

McMann vs Rosa 

First ladies fight of the night. McMann is a veteran with a lot of experience against top talent threw out her career. She is a very good wrestler, and that is her path to victory in almost ALL her fights. She does have solid power, but her striking is just average. I'm sure her game plan will be to wrestle early & often, and if she can succeed she has a real shot at a victory in this fight as a solid underdog. In comes Rosa who is 4-0 since joining the UFC. She is a solid striker who uses volume and combinations nicely. She does have solid take down defense, and that will be the X factor in my opinion. If she can stuff the take down attempts from McMann early, she should have success in this fight. At -200 I don't think Rosa has any value, but if she can defend the take downs, I anticipate McMann to fade as the fight goes on, and Rosa could find a stoppage late. At +250 I like the value of Rosa inside the distance, but I hate betting against an underdog who has wrestling as a path to victory. I will wait until later in the week to make a final decision. 

Diakiese vs Borshchev 

Another solid fight here. Borshchev is 1-0 since joining the UFC. He is the striking coach for Team Alpha Male, so that should tell you all you need to know about his striking. He is a good kick boxer with a lot of kick boxing experience. He won his UFC debut with a nice body shot stoppage. He has a very nice jab with solid power behind it. His kicks are always something to worry about and as expected, his striking is very clean and technical. Diakiese is riding a 2 fight losing streak. He looks to get back on track here, but this is a tough match up for him. He has fought some really tough opponents over the years, so experience is on his side. He is also a solid striker with good power. He will invest in kicks and body shots early, in hopes to breakdown his opponent later in the fight. He has been durable during his career, but I think this is a real tough fight for him. I like Borshchev to win this, I just don't know if I want him inside the distance, or use him in a parlay with the ML. I will see how my bets look later in the week and make a final decision. 

Magny vs Griffin 

I loved Magny when I first looked at this card, but I was very surprised at his -250 price tag as I think this is a much closer fight then the odds reflect. Magny is a well rounded fighter with a lot of tools in his bag. He is a solid striker who when he finds his range, is very dangerous. He has good clinch work with solid knees and elbows. He does have solid grappling also, which makes him a tough fight for anyone. In comes Griffin who is riding a 3 fight win streak. He is the more dangerous fighter in my opinion, but less complete/skilled fighter. He is a solid striker with legit power. He also has good grappling & has 70% take down defense which he might need. I think Griffin has the advantage early in the fight, but once Magny settles in, I see him taking over this fight with a more complete and well executed game plan. At -250 I don't feel comfortable betting Magny, even in a parlay, so I may stay away all together unless I see something later in the week.   

Maia vs Fiorot 

This might be the most straight forward pick on the card, and the odds reflect that. Maia is a well rounded fighter who is OK everywhere, and great nowhere. Her most dangerous tool would be her BJJ, but I don't see that playing a factor in this fight. Fiorot is 3-0 since joining the UFC & she is a real threat in the division. One question mark going into her last fight was her cardio, and she showed no issues in that area. She is a very good striker with nice power for the division. She manages her range well, while still throwing a lot of volume. Her striking differential is a very impressive 7-3. The toughness of Maia has me leaning towards Fiorot by decision at +110. I will wait and see how that line looks closer to fight night.  

Latifi vs Oleinik 

Main card opener. This is an odd and messy match up. Oleinik is on a 3 fight skid and needs a victory here. He is very experienced and has been around forever. He has good grappling with a high finish rate, win or lose. He does have chin & cardio issues at this point in his career, so that is a concern for sure. Latifi used to fight at 205, but this will be his 3rd fight at heavy weight. He is a wrestler who throws wild shots to set up his entries. When he gets on top, he does have solid control, but since fighting at heavyweight, he has had issues with control. This is a very underwhelming fight on both sides, but the extreme low volume striking of Latifi, and the threat of Oleinik whether its on top or bottom position has me leaning towards the 45 year old at +165 odds. 

Brown vs Barberena 

This should be a wild fight. Two guy's who don't mind brawling it out and throwing down. Brown is 41 years old & has a ton of experience in the UFC. He is extremely tough, but at the age of 41, his chin could start to become a liability. He is a well rounded fighter who is solid everywhere, but isn't great at one thing. He likes to march forward and get in the face of his opponent, but at this stage in his career & against someone like Barberena who throws a lot of volume, that could spell trouble for Brown in this fight. In comes Barberena who is 2-3 in his last 5. He is coming of a solid win back in December, and will look to stack wins here. He is a Brawler style striker, who is always willing to absorb shots to return a few of his own. That could be dangerous & has no doubt cost him fights in his career. He is very busy and is always marching forward. His best asset is his volume which he uses to overwhelm his opponent. He does have solid wrestling, but normally isn't something he turns too. I lean Barberena in this fight at around even money. Barberena inside distance at +275 is also temping, but the toughness of Brown has me second guessing myself. 

Askarov vs Kara-France 

This should be a really good fight. Two guys trending in the right direction in their respective careers. Askarov has high level grappling & wrestling. He dominated his last fight and looked really good. He does have solid striking, but in this fight against a really good striker, he should come in with a grapple heavy game plan, and that is exactly what I expect.  Kara-France is 2-0 in his last 2, both wins coming VIA stoppage. He is a really good striker with legit power and good volume. He has solid movement and uses it well too set up his big power shots. He does have solid take down defense at 84%, so it will be interesting to see how it holds up against Askarov. I think these odds are a little lopsided in Askarov favor, but If Kara-France cant defend the take downs, this could be a long night. I don't see much in terms of betting value just yet, so I will most likely pass on this fight. 

Wood vs Grasso 

Co main event. Two ladies trending in opposite directions. Wood is 0-2 in her last 2, needs a win to get back on track. She is a solid striker who uses her technique as an asset. She does have solid grappling, and I think it will benefit her in this fight if she uses that in her game plan. She does have nice knees & elbows when she gets into the clinch so that is something to watch for. Grasso is 2-0 since moving from 115 to 125. She is a striker who uses her pace and volume as her main weapon. She does have solid power, but her volume is more of a threat then her 1 punch power. She moves well in the octagon and her take down defense is solid. Current odds have Wood as a +200 underdog which has some value in my opinion. I think Wood will be the bigger & more physical fighter in this fight, and the striking and wrestling combination gives Wood a solid path to victory. 

Blaydes vs Daukaus 

Main event. Blaydes got back on track with a victory in his last fight. His 3 losses in his career have all been 1 punch KO's, from Francis and Lewis. He is a dominate wrestler who averages just over 6 take downs per 15 minutes. Once he gets on top he has great control and is very comfortable controlling his opponent for an extended period of time. I expect take down attempts early and often in this fight, so it will be interesting to see how Daukaus handles it. In comes Daukaus who is coming off that KO loss back in December. He is 4-1 since joining the UFC. He is a very good striker with fast hands and nice combinations. The X factor will obviously be how he handles the take down attempts from Blaydes. When he does get taken down, how will he react off his back? Those are real questions marks, especially since Daukaus has not had too defend any take downs since joining the UFC. Odds have Blaydes as a sizable favorite, and I think its justified in this match up. I might include Blaydes in a parlay, and maybe play a round bet, but as of now, I'm not sold on much in this fight. 

i love your write-ups my man, very sound logic and reasoning and i will definitely take these into account when i make my wagers this saturday. 

Not sure if you follow PFL, but there is a Heavyweight card tomorrow night and i really like Adam Keresh (-200) over Chad Johnson.  Keresh has already had a few fights in Bellator and was pretty impressive winning all of them by stoppage and his opponents were decent unlike some other matchups in Bellator.  Chad Johnson is 35 compared to Keresh (28) and 5 of his 6 Pro wins have come against very weak competition. He got mauled by Josh Parisian on DWCS being stopped in 3 minutes.  Another thing is that Johnson looks like he should probably be fighting at 205, but maybe he's too lazy to cut weight.  He looked gassed against Parisian after two minutes.

i don't like laying -200 even though i think this is a mismatch.  Most of these "Challenger Series" fights PFL is doing seem more like showcase bouts for an individual in each fight and the oddsmakers are slacking here.  Last week's card was a joke. I may use Keresh in a parlay with Khizriev, Fiorot and Blaydes

Thanks for the good info

@BigMick87

Thanks a lot. Glad it helps 

I don’t follow PFL too closely. Good ideal parlaying him with 1-2 fighters on Saturday that your strong on. 

GL this weekend 

@vetdrm

 GL this weekend 

All fighters have officially made weight 

Danaa Batgerel has been very exciting on this winning streak, hope he ends this one quick again 

@BWS77

 That should be a good fight 

Prelim card, 

Gutierrez ML +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units 

Gutierrez wins inside distance +450 - 0.25 units to win 1.12 units 

Rosa wins inside distance +240 - 0.5 units to win 1.20 units 

Magny/Griffin fight to end inside distance (YES) +162 - 1 unit to win 1.62 units 

Main card, 

Borshchev ML -145 - 3 units to win 2.07 units 

Oleinik ML +175 - 1 unit to win 1.75 units 

Oleinik wins inside distance +240 - 0.5 units to win 1.20 units 

Barberena ML -110 - 1.5 units to win 1.36 units 

Wood ML +200 - 1 unit to win 2 units 

Blaydes/Daukaus over 2.5 rounds -110 - 1.5 units to win 1.36 units 

Correction, Gutierrez inside distance should be 0.5 units to win 2.25 units 

Parlay, 

Saldana vs Souza over 1.5 rounds/ Maia vs Fiorot over 1.5 rounds/ Khizriev wins inside distance +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit