UFC Fight Night 7-9-22

As always, just my initial leans/thoughts. Nothing set in stone until fight night.  Tail or fade as you wish

Lawrence vs. Kakhramonov - very underrated fight.  Lawrence looked fantastic in his last fight against Mana Martinez, completely dominated on feet and grappling. Very well-rounded and you can say the same for Kakhramonov.  This is a pick'em fight as it should be.  Lean - i slightly lean Lawrence because i think he has the better wrestling and the line has moved to favor him more.

Nzechukwu vs. Roberson - Roberson has been run through the gauntlet of light heavyweights, all 5 of his losses have come against solid competition and fighters who dominated him on the ground (aside from Roundtree).  Roberson has very slick striking, but is a fish out of water on the mat.  Nzechukwu hasn't shown any ability grappling, so i think Roberson has a good shot here.  Nzechukwu has a massive height/reach advantage, but he also has trouble getting started a lot of times.  Lean - Roberson by TKo/KO - Roberson is solid if he doesn't have to worry about being taken down, he can just let his strikes flow, good chance he overwhelms Nzechukwu if he starts off slow.  Nzechukwu is the slight favorite, so i may just take Roberson ML

Onama vs. Armfield - Armfield is taking this on short notice and he's fighting at 145 instead of his usual 135.  The little i've seen of Armfield is that he has some solid boxing skills.  One particular fight, that he lost, he battered his opponent on the feet and almost got a stoppage in the 1st round, only to come out and get out-wrestled and submitted in the 2nd.  I was surprised to see Armfield has several submission wins of his own, since he was dominated by a hurt opponent on the mat. Onama carries some pop in his hands, but is very hittable too.  I haven't seen official odds on this, but i've read that Onama will be around -500 which is way too much even though i think he wins. Lean - Fight DOES NOT go distance (???) - no odds, but both guys have sharp striking and Armfield has gotten finishes on the mat.  I'll see what Onama ITD is.

Brundage vs. Gore - 2 guys with unrefined striking who like to throw and then shoot takedowns.  Not a great feel for this fight because Gore hasn't had many bouts under his belt and i can't really say what each fighter's "strength" is.  Neither are great in any one area.  Lean - Don't have one, may take "fight goes distance"

Casey vs. Schevchenko - 2 gatekeepers, Schevchenko is a better fighter on the feet, but gets in trouble on the ground, however Casey isn't exactly great at getting a fight there....though she has solid BJJ if it did.  I think the oddsmakers are favoring Schevchenko because she is the crisper striker, but i don't love her enough in this matchup. Lean - No Lean - Can't tell if this line is respect for Schevchenko ability, or due to Casey's 10-9 record.  I don't see much difference in talent.  I'll await weigh-in's to decide further

Zahabi vs. Turcios - 2 different styles, Turcios is constant pressure and motion - Zahabi likes to take his time,but may not have a choice against Turcios.  I hope Zahabi has worked on his cardio during his year long layoff.  Turcio's pressure is pretty much his biggest weapon.  He throws just to touch his opponent to score and while not exactly a great grappler, he's usually able to worm himself out of any danger.  Zahabi's biggest weapon is his punching power.  Lean - Turcios by sub +800....swinging for the fences on this one, Turcios may try to swarm Zahabi with pressure and then grapple a bit, fwir Zahabi isn't too keen at grappling.  Good chance this stays on the feet though

Calvillo vs. Nunes - Calvillo is coming off back-to-back stoppage losses and i still can't understand why she returned so quickly after being TKO'd by Jessica Andrade, it was like a 6 week turnaround and she didn't look even close to being prepared to fight when she lost to Andrea Lee.  Is she a broken fighter...or was just a bad decision to return to the cage too soon?  Nunes is unspectacular, but a solid fighter in her own right.  Lean - Nina Nunes ML +128

Johnson vs. Mullarkey - Last time Michael Johnson fought i bet him to win by finish and he came through, but after his fight i also said i would fade him in his next fight because i thought he looked terrible and only won because his opponent was perhaps the worst in that weight division.  I do like Mullarkey and think he's a tough out, but idk if i can lay -240....although i think he is -240 for good reason.  Lean - Mullarkey - idk if i will use him in a parlay or bet him to finish (+100)

Vandervaa vs.Sherman - Loser leaves UFC???  both guys have taken a number of short-notice fights, so their jobs may be safe.  I think Vandervaa gets this to the ground and either gets a finish or lays on top for the win. Lean - bet at your own peril...this could be a doozy  Baudot vs. Parisian pt. 2

Nurmagamedov vs. Silva de Andrade - could be a great fight, and i'm a bit surprised Nurmagomedov is almost -300.  Douglas Andrade is no slouch, although he is getting old.  Said Nurmagomedov looks like a title contender though and literally ran through and submitted his last opponent in under a minute. Lean - Nurmagomedov ITD +100 - I really don't like when older fighters drop down a weight class like Andrade is doing here, i forgot he went up to 145 for a couple years.

Petrosyan vs. Borralho - I said i was done doubting Borralho, he proved in his last fight that he is for real and extremely well-rounded.  He exhibited outstanding grappling in his last fight and will need to do so once more.  Petrosyan is a powerful striker and likes to use his kicks and knees when given space.  Lean - Borralho - Petrosyan didn't look like he wanted to be on the mat or grappling of any kind in his Contender series fight, but couldn't stop the takedowns early. Luckily for him his opponent gassed after a few minutes and he was able to create some space....Borralho has proven he can wrestle for 3 rounds with ease.  Oddsmakers love Borralho based on the numbers....may take Borralho to win by finish or put him in a parlay

Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev - What a matchup.  Dos Anjos has had quite a career.  Idk why he made that move to 170 5 years ago, he was way too small for that division....perhaps he saw no possible way of defeating Khabib and decided to move up, but i think it was better idea to move down to 145, he was in the prime of his career still.  Anyway, he's 2-0 since coming back to 155 and looks great dominating those 2 fights, although i believe each were short notice when his matches with Makachaev fell through for whatever reasons.  Dos Anjos has always been pretty well-rounded, but recently has looked great grappling.  On the feet, Fiziev is the more talented striker whether it be punches or kicks, Dos Anjos will have to be alert to not walk into a shot.  Fiziev has been impressive, but this is certainly a big step-up...even if Dos Anjos is 37 yo.  Lean - Dos Anjos ML - look Fiziev might land a head kick and end this one in the first round, but if Dos Anjos can survive the stand-up early and make this enough of a wrestling match to where we get to round 3, Fiziev has shown poor cardio in the past and Dos Anjos may end up dominating the rest of the fight on the mat.  Oddsmakers showing a lot of love to Fiziev, but i'm pretty set in stone on this one.  Can't lay that number on a guy who has shown poor cardio in a 5 round fight

having 2nd thoughts regarding Roberson....Nzechekwu is so much bigger than him it's crazy....maybe i take it not to go distance

my stupid parlay: Nzechkwu/Roberson ends by TKO/KO - Onama/Armfield UNDER 1.5 - Brundage ML - Mullarkey by finish (+1665)

got a free bet from one of my books, so what the hell

Best wishes to everyone tomorrow

I like your Nunes pick. 

Good luck. 

GL tonight 

GL tonight my friend!

Nunes figth is off now

@The_Fist

@paletta007

@UglyKidJoe

 Let's get it gentleman!!!

War Chisora!!! 

off to a good start to the day, Chisora eeked out a SD win

On to UFC 

Ronnie Lawrence (-118)....damn line came down, but i'm sticking with him

damn i had this angle pegged wrong....Lawrence seems really concerned with that eye

can already count this in the loss column, Kakhramonov looks like he channled the spirit of Khabib for this one, Lawrence looked like he was gassed about 2 minutes in....

Got the next fight ending by TKO/KO in my parlay

Roberson has got to have rocks in his head, why the hell are you trying to wrestle this guy????

There is 1 out of 4

Got Onama-Armfield UNDER 1.5 rounds as leg-2 of the parlay....i expect Onama to tee off, but Armfield could land a counter....Onama has been caught and hurt before

put a sheckle on Armfield (+610) just for fun

missed it by 40 seconds 

Cortney Casey +150

Casey should have won that. 

@UglyKidJoe

 No doubt.r u kidding me?

railroaded!

rough start....didn't even get to watch that one.

laying off this one since it's my most hated fight on the card

lol, 'railroaded'??? was a very close fight, could have gone either way.

@Merlin69

 How many more times did Casey need to take her down, with significant ride time I might add.

Harder elbows also.