UFC Fight Night 67 Write-Up / Predictions

Lucas Martins (+375) v. Mirsad Bektic (-470)

Lucas Martins is an explosive fighter, though he’s coming off a split decision loss against an American, fighting in his native Brazil. The fight really wasn’t close and was only split due to patriotic Brazilian judging. His previous 4 fights include a streak of 3 wins by finish that followed a TKO loss to Edson Barboza. His 3 fight win streak includes 2 KO wins but might as well be 3- he won by a rear-naked choke that put his opponent to sleep, which was completely setup by KO quality strikes. Martins holds a BJJ purple belt but tends to keep fights standing, and leans on his belt should he end up on the ground. He started at 155 pounds and won as low as 135 and is now settled at 145.

Mirsad Bektic is a very good grappler. He is 9-0 professionally with 2 UFC wins by decision. His debut was a close fight won by majority decision, which he followed with a dominating victory that included 34-2 striking advantage and 2-0 takedown advantage. His previous 7 pro wins include 6 finishes. Bektic is a very technical boxer, which sets up his wrestling game nicely.

This is an incredibly difficult fight to pick. Bektic is a good striker and great grappler, but Martins is a good striker as well who has shown an impressive 85.71% takedown defense rate in the UFC.  Martins is the higher volume striker at 3.4 SSPM, but also absorbs 4.16 SSPM. Bektic has superior defense with only 0.7 SSPM absorbed and a very good 77.17% strike defense to Martins’ 64.08%.

I’m really not impressed with Martins’ loss to Darren Elkins, where he was heavily outstruck. Beltik has shown a dominant wrestling game in his last 2 fights, but it’s important to note that Bektic had a high finish rate prior to entering the UFC with most of his wins coming by TKO. I am nervous that the Brazilian judges will side with their own if it’s a close decision fight, but I see Bektic setting himself farther apart than Elkins did against Martins. I see Bektic winning the exchanges on the feet and capitalizing on the clinch & takedown opportunities that his strikes create.

The Prediction: Mirsad Bektic (decision)

My Bet: None (no value)

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+310) v. Nicolas Dalby (-370)

Elizeu is coming off a 4 win-by-finish streak in the Jungle Fight promotion. He has finished 13 of his 14 pro wins, including 11 KO/TKO and 2 submissions. He is not afraid to turn a fight into a brawl, and if he even gets a whiff of a finish he will let his hands fly. He has won 6 of his last 7 fights, and none of those fights went the distance.

Nicolas Dalby has amassed a 13-0 professional record and is the Cage Force champion. He is making his UFC debut as well. He will be traveling from Denmark to Brazil as the visiting favorite. He holds a Karate green belt and BJJ purple belt.

Some statistical analysis has me leaning to the Brazilian underdog. He has a 92.86% finish rate to Dalby’s 53.85%. The Brazilian has finished his last 4 fights as well. With this fight being in Brazil, I’m taking the Brazilian who will leave it all in the octagon. Dalby would have to finish this fight to get his hand raised, and he hasn’t shown himself to be a finisher.

The Prediction: Elizeu Zaleski (TKO)

My Bet: Elizeu Zaleski wins (+310) / Wins inside the distance

Jussier De Silva Formiga (-160) v. Wilson Reis (+140)

This is going to be a jiu-jitsu exhibition match. Both of these Brazilians have high level BJJ credentials. Jussier holds Black Belts in both BJJ and Judo, and his a national Shooto champion. Wilson Reis has a BJJ Black Belt of his own and has won multiple BJJ championships including Mundials, Brazilian Nationals, Grapplers Quest and others. He also won the Elite XC bantamweight title in 2008.

They both have a common and recent opponent in Scott Jorgensen, who they both submitted in the first round. This fight is nearly impossible to pick at face value, so we need to look at some numbers. Formiga has  17-3 pro record with 3-2 in the UFC, compared to Reis’ 19-5 record and 3-1 within the UFC. They have nearly identical pro finish rates at 47.06% and 47.37%. Neither has a KO win in their career, they win either by submission or decision only.

Where the two diverge is in grappling. Wilson Reis boasts a 5.26 takedown average to Jussier’s 2.29. However Jussier has 71.43% takedown defense vs 33.33% for Wilson. Wilson has better takedown accuracy at 58.62% to 33.33%.

Jussier is 3-2 in UFC with those 2 losses coming to John Dodson in his UFC debut and the other to Joseph Benavidez. Both losses came by TKO. However neither of those losses came to a BJJ specialist. At even money, this fight would be a coin toss, but Wilson Reis has better grappling & wrestling numbers. He boasts a slightly better record as well.

The Prediction: Wilson Reis (decision)

My Bet: Wilson Reis (+140)

Rony Jason (-190) v. Damon Jackson (+165)

“Jason” will definitely be the fan favorite fighting against a visitor in his native Brazil. He has traded wins and losses over his last few fights, but has 3 wins by finish and a TUF Brazil title win over Godofredo Pepey. Jason is a super legit BJJ black belt with double-digit BJJ championships in Brazil. Jason has a pro finish rate of 92.86% including 5 KO/TKO and 8 Submissions.

Damon Jackson is also a grappler, holding a BJJ purple belt and was an All American wrestler in college. He has a 100% pro finish rate on his 9-1 pro record, including 2 KO/TKO and 7 submissions. He took his first loss in his UFC debut against Yancy Medeiros, who put him to sleep with a reverse bulldog choke he landed off Jackson’s failed takedown attempt. His last win was a 90 second domination of Leonard Garcia to win the Legacy FC Featherweight Championship, which he won with an arm triangle choke from the mount.

The two opponents are similar in striking volume, but Jason is the more technical fighter with better defense. Jackson will have the size advantage. Jackson’s grappling was ineffective against Yancy Medeiros, for the first time in his pro career. Now he enters Brazil against Rony Jason, where he will be heavily outmatched against the Black Belt in grappling as well as striking. Jackson will also have to deal with the hostile environment that is Brazil, and he won’t be able to count on the judges in any kind of close decision. He will also be dealing with 100+ degree temperatures inside the building, something that has caused trouble for even veteran visitors.

The Prediction: Rony Jason (submission)

My Bet: Rony Jason to win inside the distance

Wendell Oliveira (-120) v. Darren Till (+100)

Oliviera is a muay thai black belt and BJJ brown belt. He is coming off a R1 KO loss in his UFC Debut. The loss ended a 7 fight win streak amassed in other organizations. Wendell has tremendous punching power, but is not very accurate. In his last fight he looked very stiff and rigid, just waiting for over-hand right opportunities that never came. When he went on the attack, he got picked apart and was finished quickly.

Darren Till is making his UFC debut on short notice. Originally from England, he is now living in Brazil and fought recently on May 9th in a R4 TKO win against another Brazilian. Till is 12-0 on his career with 10 finishes (8 KO, 2 Sub). Till has been very active, going pro in only February 2013.

I believe Darren Till will have the advantage in this fight in his adopted home of Brazil. He’s going to have a small height advantage, but he is also much leaner than Oliveira. I see him using his muay thai skills to wear his opponent down against the cage, and have Oliveira completely gassed by round 2. Even with only 3 weeks between fights, he is a solid underdog pick.

The Prediction: Darren Till (TKO)

My Bet: Darren Till inside the distance

Norman Parke (-255) v. Francisco Trinaldo (+215)

Norman Parke is coming off a split decision loss to Gleison Tibau in a close fight- he outstruck Tibau but Tibau was able to land a couple of takedowns and convince the judges. He won TUF Smashes LW and has gone 1-1-1 over his last 3 fights. He had 14 finishes in his first 14 professional wins, but with only 1 finish in the UFC he has a 25% finish rate on his wins in the promotion. His only finish in the UFC was against Naoyuki Kotani, who has has been getting finished by nearly everyone he fights. Norman Parke has not been finished in his lone UFC loss (split decision).

Francisco Trinaldo isn’t the betting favorite but will definitely be the crowd favorite in Brazil. He’s coming off a 2 fight win streak, both by decision. He has 3 finishes on his 6 UFC wins and was only finished in 1 of his 3 losses.

Neither of these guys are consistently exciting to watch in their last few fights. The trend would definitely point to this fight going to a decision. The safe bet is to bet the fight goes the distance or over 2.5 rounds. Norman Parke is better at striking, both offensively and defensively. He’s also a better wrestler landing nearly 2 takedowns per fight average with 87% takedown defense. With all of that said, his finishing skills haven’t translated with his move to the big leagues and I cannot trust Brazilian judges.

My Prediction: Norman Parke (Decision)

My Bet: Fight goes the distance / over 2.5 rounds

Francimar Barroso (+255)  v. Ryan Jimmo (-270)        

Barroso is coming off a split decision loss in his native Brazil against Dutchman Hans Stringer. The fact that 1 judge saw Barroso as the winner isn’t completely surprising, but he clearly lost the fight. He seemed nervous to engage with Stringer in both the striking and ground game. This is a credit to Stringer’s excellent BJJ and kickboxing. Despite going 1-1 in his 2 UFC fights, with both fights going the distance, Barroso is a finisher. He finished his first 14 pro fights before joining the UFC (8 KO/TKO, 6 Submissions). His pro finish rate is now 87.5%, while being finished in 3 of his 4 pro losses.

Ryan Jimmo has turned into a brawler in his last few fights. He’s gone 1-2 in his last 3, but none of the 3 made it out of the 2nd round. Jimmo has a 52.6% finish rate on his career with an improved 66.67% rate since joining the UFC. He was finished in 3 of his 4 pro losses with 2 of 3 UFC losses coming by finish.

This fight should not go the distance either way. Jimmo has been leaving his fights out of the judges hands lately, and I see no reason that will change as he takes his first trip to Brazil. I think Barroso will be looking to grapple and wrestle against a dangerous striker in Jimmo. I expect Barroso to use his kickboxing black belt to play Jimmo’s game only long enough to take a dominant position. Jimmo hasn’t fought a BJJ master since Anthony Perosh in 2012.

My Prediction: Francimar Barroso (Submission)

The Safe Bet: Fight does not go the distance / Francimar Barroso to win

KJ Noons (+110)  v. Alex Oliveira (-130)

KJ Noons is coming off a No Contest in which he absolutely should have lost by DQ. Noons was getting handily beaten by Cruickshank and poked Cruickshank in the eye two times, causing permanent damage to the eye with the 2nd. Cruickshank couldn’t continue, and Noons was lucky to get a NC result. He was a loser in Strikeforce, but his only loss in the UFC was to Donald Cerrone almost exactly 2 years ago. He has 2 UFC wins, which includes an insane R1 KO of Sam Stout that came with the first punch Noons connected on in the fight.

Oliveira is coming off a loss in his UFC Debut (which he took on short notice) to Gilbert Burns. There are some silver linings in this fight, despite him losing the fight. He took a tough fight on short notice, firstly. Gilbert Burns is a 4x BJJ world champion. Oliveira was able to out-strike Burns for much of the fight, with the final stat being 29-17 landed strikes. Burns was able to land multiple takedowns and attempt a few submissions, which he ultimately finished the fight in Round 3 by armbar. There is absolutely no shame in Oliveira (a blue belt in BJJ) losing to a black belt in a three round fight, on short notice no less.

Full Disclosure: I hate KJ Noons. But that isn’t the only reason I’m taking Oliveira. Oliveira holds superior win rate (83.33% v. 65.00%) and a higher finish rate (90.00% v. 69.23%). Those numbers do not bode well for Noons as the visitor in Brazil. Perhaps I’m betting with my heart, but I like Oliveira in this fight. I believe Noons opened as the favorite (can’t remember) but Oliveira is getting a fair price at -130 currently.

My Prediction: Alex Oliveira (TKO)

My Bet: Alex Oliveira to win

Nik Lentz (+240)  v. Charles Oliveira (-280)

This will be an interesting Grudge Match. When these 2 squared off in 2011, Oliveira finished Lentz in the 2nd round, but the fight was overturned as a No Contest due to an illegal knee from Oliveira. Prior to the reversal, it was Lentz’ first UFC loss. Nik Lentz most definitely has some bad blood with Oliveira, and has even accused Oliviera of intentionally throwing illegal blows to avoid losing the fight. Oliveira clearly intended to throw the knee- but he had landed at least 10 vicious knees early in the fight and a few of them were landed as Lentz was getting up. On the illegal knee that setup the finish, I think Oliveira’s muscle memory was expecting Lentz to get up while he just stayed grounded on his knees. The No Contest is fair, but Lentz accusing Oliveira of deliberately using illegal blows to prevent a loss is ridiculous.

Lentz is 9-3 since joining the UFC with a pathetic 22.22% finish rate. He was finished in 1 of his 3 UFC losses, which was a doctor’s stoppage. After he lost to Oliveira (overturned) Lentz went on to lose his next 2 fights, but eventually put together 3 consecutive wins. He’s won 4 in his last 5, with the loss being to Chad Mendes.

Oliveira is a Jiu Jitsu master. He’s a brown belt, but has has an incredible finish rate of 85.71% in his 7 UFC wins, with 6 of those coming by submission. His UFC record is 7-4 and he is on a 3 fight win streak. His 4 losses came to Frankie Edgar, Cub Swanson, Donald Cerrone, and Jim Miller.

This is an incredibly difficult fight to pick. Nik Lentz did win a decision in his last trip to Brazil against Hacran Dias. The fight was very close on strike count, but his 4 takedowns and ground control won the fight. He won another unanimous decision in the fight before that, which was a lopsided domination of Diego Nunes. Everything I said about Brazilian judging earlier is out the window on this fight.

Can Oliveira finish off the fight? He attempted like 10 submissions in their first fight. He chases submissions in every fight and has found 6 of them in his 11 UFC fights. He was winning their first fight but gave his official Win away with a vicious illegal knee. However, Oliveira’s last loss came to another Division I wrestler in Frankie Edgar, but Lentz isn’t on Edgar’s level. Lentz’ recent wins have been to inferior fighters, nothing like Oliveira.

My Prediction: Charles Oliveira (Submission)

My Bet: Charles Oliveira wins inside the distance

Carlos Condit (-270) v. Thiago Alves (+230)

Carlos Condit is coming off a surgery and 14 month layoff. Condit has only won 2 in his last 5, but consider that the oldest in that series was his decision win over Nick Diaz for the interim welterweight belt, which he would hand back to Georges St-Pierre in the next fight. Add the loss to Hendricks in 2013 and the injury/loss to Woodley exactly one year later, and it’s been a tough road lately for Condit. He’s 6-4 in the UFC with 4 wins and 1 loss being finishes.

Thiago Alves is a +230 underdog in a fight that really should be a pick’em. Alves has won 3 of his last 5 and is 13-6 in the UFC. He’s coming off a KO victory and is on a 2 win streak.

Thiago has a statistical advantage over Condit in several areas: strikes per minute, striking defense, average takedowns, takedown accuracy, and takedown defense. The takedowns could be key, as Alves is a BJJ brown belt on the ground. Condit has 0 takedowns in his last 5 fights, and a combined 29 takedowns against him in those same 5 fights. Granted, those names include St-Pierre and Hendricks. Alves is a Brazilian Muay Thai Champion, but I believe against Condit he will lean on his BJJ brown belt. This guy is loved in Brazil and will walk away with the decision.

My Prediction: Thiago Alves (Decision)

My Bet: Thiago Alves to win