UFC Fight Night- Hall vs Strickland

YTD 5-7 

-1.675 units 

Big card this coming weekend, will post picks as I lock them in. 

GL ALL 

Rowe vs Cosce 

Interesting fight here. Odds slowly shifting Rowe's way since the line opened at the beginning of the week. I see Cosce trying to take this to the ground and wrestle which in my opinion, is his only way to secure decision victory. Rowe on the other hand is very sneaky on the ground, and can scramble and find himself in some decent submission positions. I think if Rowe manages too keep this standing, he can use his length/reach to keep Cosce at bay, and use volume strikes too score points/damage. Although I am worried about Cosce keeping Rowe down for 3 rounds, ill take Rowe at + money with more ways to a victory. 

Rowe ML +137 - 1 unit to win 1.37 units 

Lawrence vs Jones 

Another solid fight here. Both fighters coming into this with a KO/TKO win in their last fight earlier this year. Lawrence loves to grapple & wrestle, which i think hell do a ton of in this fight. Jones has power, but from what I've seen, his technique isn't always on point. I think Jones will fall in love with his power early, and might find himself over committed with his striking and fall right into Lawrence's game plan, which will be a slow & steady fight scoring points grappling and wrestling with some ground & pound. Jones for sure has 1 punch power, but if Lawrence gets out of the first round, I think Jones cardio will start to fade away, and Lawrence will drag him down for 3 rounds and win a decision. 

Lawrence ML -150 - 2 units to win 1.33 units 

Lawrence by decision +200 - 0.50 units to win 1.0 units 

Yu Frey vs Yoder 

Both ladies need a solid performance here to convince the UFC they are worthy. Frey is coming off a surprising win last time out against de Paula back in March, but before that didn't really show much. Yoder is tough, she's never been finished in her career. I think Frey will look for the take down, which in the past Yoder has conceded without any fight as she likes to work of her back. I cant seem to find any value here. I will sprinkle a little on Yoder to win inside and hope for a submission of some sort. 

Yoder to win inside the distance +500 - 0.25 units to win 1.25 units 

Chavez vs Kamaka 

Coin flip on this next fight. Short notice fight for Kamaka. Both fighters coming in off decision losses in their last fights. I like Chavez speed and cardio, but Kamaka's kicks and power. I will pass on this fight for now. If i see something later in the week I will update. 

 PASS

Gruetzemacher vs Garcia 

Garcia coming off a loss in his UFC debut against Haqparast who is a really good fighter. It was a unanimous decision loss, but Garcia flashed against a really good opponent. Gruetzemacher has had two fights in the last 41 months, 1 being a win back in 2018 and the last being a loss back in 2020. I think Garcia win's this fight rather easy, but will respect the striking and power of Gruetzemacher which is his only true danger. + money to win inside seems like the pick all around, but that line isn't sitting right with me at +130 currently. I might sit this out and wait for a submission prop too come out and play that small. 

PASS

Anglin vs Baghdasayan 

Two contender series prospects here. Both coming off victories. Baghdasayan has 6 fights, 5 which ended in the 1st round. He did show in his last fight on the contender series he could fight out of the first round, in a unanimous decision victory. Anglin also has some finishes on his resume. Both guys competition is low end, which in my opinion makes this fight a toss up. Odds have Baghdasayan as the slight favorite. I will pass on this fight all together. 

PASS 

Montano vs Yanan

Interesting fight here. Montano hasn't fought since 2019, and since that time she's had 5 cancelled fights. Yanan is coming off 2 losses in a row against relatively easy competition. Not much too offer in terms of insight on this fight, but I feel like both ladies will be eager to get a win with there current circumstances and I will bet on the fight ending inside the distance. 

Fight to go the distance(NO) +225 - 0.50 units to win 1.12 units 

Benoit vs Adashev 

Interesting fight here. This was originally scheduled for May but was cancelled because Benoit had weight cut issues, and was in the hospital. Fast forward around 3 months and here we go. Benoit much more experienced in MMA. Although hes coming off 2 losses in a row, he's fought some skilled fighters in his career. Adashev background is in kick boxing and possesses some solid power. He's lost his first 2 UFC fights against decent competition. Both fighters need a positive result here, and for that reason I think they both come out aggressive. 

Fight to go distance(NO) +120 - 1 unit to win 1.20 

Adashev to win inside distance +333 - 0.25 units to win 0.83 units 

Barberena vs Witt 

Two opposite fighters here. Barberena will look to stand and look for the KO. Witt will look for take down's and grind out a victory or a submission. Barberena has been dealing with some injuries, so it will be interesting to see how he looks. Witt's chin showed in the past that he cant withstand much power, so if Barberena can keep this on the feet I think it will be an early night for both fighters. Barberena has shown some good scrambling ability in some of his fights so I do think if he does get taken down, he'll manage too get back up. I don't see many ways Witt can secure the victory in this fight. I'm not in love with any bet here, but ill sprinkle a little on a 1st round win. 

Barberena round 1 victory +300 - 0.50 units to win 1.50 units 

Stolze vs Gooden 

Short notice fight for Gooden. Stolze goes from being an underdog to a pretty big favorite in this fight. Gooden coming off back to back losses, against two solid opponents. Gooden has shown decent power in the past, but not the most technical fighter. His last 2 fights weren't very close so I don't expect much here coming in short notice. Stolze on the the other hand is a kick boxer with solid footwork and striking. I think he will be able to move around and throw strikes relatively easy in this one, and maybe even mix in a few take downs. I think Stolze moves around in all 3 rounds and mixes in a bit of everything and wins on points. 

Stolze by decision +150 - 1 unit to win 1.50 units   

de Paula vs Buys 

Both ladies are solid prospects. Both ladies coming off pretty bad showings in their last fights. Both got pretty much dominated on the ground against two opponents who aren't that great in my opinion. I think Buys offers more strength and ability on the ground, but de Paula is aggressive on the feet, and has some nice striking. I think if de Paula can defend the take down early, she will have the advantage in this fight. I will back the underdog here, and hope for a fire fight on the feet. 

de Paula ML +140 - 1 unit to win 1.40 units 

de Paula to win inside distance +550 - 0.25 units to win 1.37 units 

This card is a mess  fights dropping by the minute 

Lawrence vs Jones 

Another solid fight here. Both fighters coming into this with a KO/TKO win in their last fight earlier this year. Lawrence loves to grapple & wrestle, which i think hell do a ton of in this fight. Jones has power, but from what I've seen, his technique isn't always on point. I think Jones will fall in love with his power early, and might find himself over committed with his striking and fall right into Lawrence's game plan, which will be a slow & steady fight scoring points grappling and wrestling with some ground & pound. Jones for sure has 1 punch power, but if Lawrence gets out of the first round, I think Jones cardio will start to fade away, and Lawrence will drag him down for 3 rounds and win a decision. 

Lawrence ML -150 - 2 units to win 1.33 units 

Lawrence by decision +200 - 0.50 units to win 1.0 units 

CANCELLED BOUT - Lawrence weight cut issues, 

Hall vs Strickland 

I'm not overthinking this. Strickland is more well versed in all area's in my opinion. Only thing that worries me is Strickland walk's forward with his hands down, which could play right into Hall. I think Strickland will move around and use high volume to frustrate Hall, and eventually finish him off. Not much more too say here. 

Strickland to win inside distance +140 - 3 units to win 4.20 units 

Parlay, 

Garcia ML, Strickland ML -106 - 2.5 units to win 2.37 units 

Wonder how much the "Covid" training has to do with some of these Weight issues. Seems to be more prevalent now and with another potential lock down coming, who knows what will happen. The only fight I am confident putting money on this card is the main event (please don't get canceled) and I will be on Strickland as well. May look for prices on a couple of props (I see you are inside the distance), I was thinking in terms of submission or decision. 

If it goes to decision then I will assume Hall couldn't touch him too much, so there may be a few Strickland take downs to help with scoring. I dunno, I have been pretty cold of late, but this is the one that jumped out to me. I really do like Hall in other matchups, but this one just feels like it is going to favor Strickland.

Good Luck,

Manowarfan1

@Manowarfan1

 I can see Strickland touching Hall up, and eventually finishing him off with a ref stoppage. I was tempted to sprinkle a little on a submission, as I think that is for sure possible  I parlayed Hall ML with Garcia ML together to cover my inside the distance bet on Strickland, assuming Garcia wins! 

Good luck tonight on a rather slim and very odd card 

adding one last bet, 

Chavez ML +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit 

Final bets, 

adding++++ 

Anglin vs Baghdasayan - fight goes distance(NO) -120 - 1.5 units to win 1.25 units 

Get em back next week paletta, weird card tonight!