Rodriguez vs Hansen
This should be the opening fight, and it should be a fun one. Two prospects who look to gain momentum. Rodriguez is making her UFC debut. She is a solid striker with finishing ability for the weight class. She is aggressive and likes to move forward and use volume to overwhelm her opponent and control the activity. She does load up and throw her shots with intent so keep an eye on her cardio. Her take down defense is solid & she will most likely need that in this fight. She does a good job at capitalizing on sloppy take down attempts from her opponent, and will look too inflict damage and reverse positions if the opportunity presents itself. In comes Hansen. 1-2 since joining the UFC. She made her debut at the young age of 20, which is crazy. Her strength is her grappling, and she uses her striking & movement to close the distance and get her opponent backed up against the cage. If she gets into this position, she will look to work in take downs. Once she gets control on the mat, she is always hunting for submissions which is her best weapon. I like Rodriguez ML in this fight. I think she is the more dangerous fighter, and as long as she can reserve her cardio, she should be able to defend the take downs and outwork Hansen. At -110 I think that is a fair price, but I will wait and see if I can get closer to + money later in the week.
Pichel vs Madsen
This is an interesting match up. Pichel is riding a 3 fight winning streak, all wins by decision. He is a solid striker with good movement and times his shots nicely. He does have solid offensive wrestling, and averages just under 3 take downs per fight. His most glaring flaw would be his take down defense. He gets taken down with very little resistance, and against someone with the Wrestling background of Madsen, that could be the game changer. Madsen is 3-0 since joining the UFC. He is an Olympic Greco wrestler. He has average striking, but in his last fight against Guida, he showed improvements in that area. In this fight I think it would be wise to avoid the striking & revert back to his roots, and wrestler Pichel early and often. If he can do that early in the fight and have success, I think it will demoralize & neutralize the aggressive Pichel. When I first seen this fight on paper, I thought Madsen would be the slight favorite, so at +115 I think Madsen has some value with a clear path too victory.
Arce vs Santos
This should be a solid fight. Santos making his debut, and he is a fun/explosive fighter. He likes to march forward and control the action. He uses a high guard to get inside the pocket & once inside he will explode with wild power shots & combinations. He does have solid leg kicks which could be a weapon too keep Arce at bay. He has shown in some of his fights the willingness too accept bottom position, so against a veteran like Arce that is a concern if your looking to back Santos. Arce is coming of a KO loss back in November against Yadong. He is a striker with solid forward pressure and volume. His movement is a great asset for him, which makes him harder to hit & opens up his nice counter attacks. He does have wrestling available in his bag of tricks & that might be a smart asset too use in this fight against the explosive Santos. I'm worried about the power and finishing ability of Santos early, but I think Arce will come in with a solid game plan and settle in and take over as the fight goes on. I lean Arce by decision, but don't rule out an early finish from Santos.
Hernandez vs Fremd
This fight is a byproduct of Hernandez original opponents dropping out & getting switched around. Hernandez is coming off that big upset victory over a year ago against Rodolfo Vieira. He was getting dominated but his cardio & toughness prevailed and he got a second round submission. He has solid grappling & that his his best asset. His striking is average & isn't always comfortable on the feet. Fremd is making his UFC debut. Like Hernandez, his grappling is his best tool. He striking is raw, but does have solid power. When watching his fights, he moves well and looks to be very athletic and explosive in his attacks. Hernandez for sure has the more tested resume, but the athletic ability & upside of Fremd has me leaning towards the underdog at +165.
Oleinik vs Vanderaa
Originally Oleinik was supposed to fight Latifi 2 weeks ago, and again this week until Latifi was forced to pull out yet again. This is a much different match up for him. I liked Oleinik in that fight, but this time around, I think its tough sledding. Oleinik is a grappler, who makes his living on submitting his opponent. Bottom position or top position, he is a serious threat. He is 45 years old and his offensive take downs aren't great & his chin at this point in his career is a liability. Vanderaa is 0-2 in his last 2. He has a grappling background, but since joining the UFC, he has leaned on his striking more often. He uses his volume to stay in the face of his opponent, and has a nice jab that helps him manage his range. I like Vanderra in this fight to keep this on the feet and pick apart the older & slower Oleinik. At -110 I think Vanderaa has a very manageable price tag and I think this is a good spot for him to get back on track.
Gall vs Malott
This is a compelling match up. Gall is back in the octagon after alternating wins and losses in his last 7 fights. Gall is a well rounded fighter with a lot of seasoned experience in the UFC. He has solid grappling & wrestling & decent striking. He does have a negative striking differential but against a below average striker, I don't think that will play a huge factor in this fight. In comes Malott who is making his official UFC debut. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He has solid technique & comes from a family of athletes. I think he is the more appealing and exciting fighter, but this is a big jump in competition & I think these odds are disrespectful against Gall. At +170 I'm finding it hard not too like Gall in this fight. I will wait and see how the odds look closer to the weekend, but I lean Gall.
Ladd vs Pennington
Two ladies trending in opposite directions. Ladd returned after a 2 year layoff in her last fight, and didn't look good at all. She looked slow & a step behind. She desperately needs a victory & this could be a solid spot for her. She is a well rounded fighter who is very tough & never quits. She has solid striking with decent power and her grappling is above average. In comes Pennington who is riding a 3 fight win streak. She is a short notice replacement, so keep that in mind. She is a veteran with a lot of experience in her career. She likes to march forward and throw strikes to get inside the pocket. She will look to tie up her opponent and control them against the cage. She has a grueling style who looks to outpoint and wear on her opponent. In Ladds last fight she fought a crisp striker, which is not good style wise for her, in this fight I think the grueling style of Pennington is the style of fight Ladd can strive and succeed in. At +170 I think Ladd can hang around and fight off Pennington and win a close fight.
Rozenstruik vs Tybura
Grappler vs Striker. Rozenstruik is 1-2 in his last 3 and is looking to get back on track here. He has no hidden game plan. He is a heavy handed striker who is looking for his 1 punch KO. Typically he likes to sit back and wait for the perfect shot, but in his last victory against Sakai, he showed the ability to push the pace which eventually led too a TKO. Question will be, can he fight off Tybura and keep his distance? In comes Tybura who lost his last fight against Volkov. Tybura is a busy fighter who likes to mix things up. He uses kicks & punches too keep his opponent guessing. He will look too grapple his opponent up against the cage & eventually work the fight to the ground. If he gets on top he has heavy top pressure and is looking too inflict damage. He was 0-16 in take down attempts in his last fight against Volkov, but Rozenstruik isn't the same type of fighter. I think Tybura should have success in this fight & at +150 I like his chances.
Garry vs Weeks
Prelim fight of the night. The Irish prospect won his debut, but he did look human. He is a striker with great hand speed & legit power. He does have good footwork & movement. In his debut against Jordan Williams, he got hit a lot and looked vulnerable. He did manage to finish Williams later in the round, but he showed his inexperience. He is still raw at this point in his career, so I assume he will look better this weekend then he did in his debut. Weeks lost his debut back in December of last year VIA decision. He looked solid in that fight. He is primarily a wrestler but does have solid striking with decent power in his hands. In his debut he managed to secure 4 take downs, so it will be interesting to see how he approaches this fight against the highly touted striker Ian Garry. He is athletic & quick so I anticipate this to be a very close and contested fight. Current odds have Garry as a -325 favorite which is wide in my opinion. I will most likely sit back and watch these two prospects go at it.
Dern vs Torres
Style wise this should be an interesting fight. Dern is coming off that loss last year & will look to get things back on track. She has elite grappling and that is always her path to victory. If she can force the fight too the ground, she is a real threat and is a world class submission artist. The issue with her is he offensive take down's. Her take downs are only successful at a 11% clip, which is a big problem. Her striking is average, but has shown slight improvements since making her debut back in 2018. In comes Torres who is riding a 3 fight win streak. Her last fight was against Angela Hill & she looked great in that fight. She is a well rounded fighter who is solid in all areas. She has good wrestling/ grappling & she has high output striking that can keep her opponent from getting a read on her. She is very quick and her cardio is solid for someone with the intensity that she fights with. Originally I leaned Torres, but I have to think Dern has improved her take down attempts. If that's the case I think Dern inside the distance at +250 is a solid bet.
Burns vs Chimaev
Highly anticipated fight. The talk of the UFC returns to the Octagon this weekend. It will be Chimaev's biggest test too date. He has dominated his opponents thus far, and most people anticipate the same happens this weekend. He is a complete fighter who is great in pretty much all areas. He has power in his hands, his wrestling & grappling is world class. His biggest unknown is how will he react if he is forced to deal with adversity? All his fights have ended early, with a couple making it too the 2nd round. Can Burns stick around and make Chimaev work? I guess we will find out this weekend. Burns won his last fight last summer and looked solid. He has very good grappling with much improved striking over his tested UFC career. He has power in his hands which always gives him a shot. He has loads of experience in the UFC, and that is the only advantage he has this weekend. I Think Chimaev wins this rather easily, but I will most likely sit back and enjoy the hype train of Chimaev. Although my gut tells me Burns will survive longer then people think, so over 1.5 rounds at +105 has me thinking. I will wait until the weekend to make a final decision on that bet.
Sterling vs Yan
Co main event. Rematch from last years title fight. We all remember what happened. One thing many people don't remember, is how competitive the first fight was until the illegal knee. Yes Yan was wining, but the fight was closer then the odds reflect this time around. Sterling is a solid striker who does a good job at fighting at range and uses his kicks very well too manage that range. He does have good grappling and has good spells of control in his fights. His cardio failed him later in the first fight, and I think that was partly because he was throwing a lot of strikes and was looking for the finish. I think if he comes in with a more conservative & grapple focused game plan, it could suit him better later in the fight and keep this close going into the championship rounds. One thing that worries me about Sterling is the year layoff, and in that time, he has suffered some injuries which is never a good thing. In come Yan. He is an elite striker with fantastic movement and footwork. He fights with a good defensive high guard, and will look too explode from that guard and deliver devastating blows of his own. In the first fight he managed a perfect 7/7 take downs, so that is worth noting. His take down defense is also very good, and sits just over 90% overall. His cardio is an asset, which makes him a threat for the finish at anytime. Yan is the more complete fighter in my opinion, but these odds don't reflect what I seen in the first fight. I find it hard betting against a stud like Yan, so I will most likely sit back and enjoy this rematch.
Volkanovski vs Zombie
Main event. Volkanovski is 10-0 since joining the UFC back in 2016. He is a complete fighter who is solid everywhere. He has good striking with good speed and very solid footwork. He uses his kicks and combinations too keep his opponent off balance, which sets up his clean & crisp take downs. He fights with good pace and has a high motor which overwhelms his opponent at times. He has fought in some close fights during his run, but his pace and activity is normally enough to secure victories. In comes the Zombie. This was originally slated to be a short notice fight for him, but that got pushed back so now he has a full camp. He is a veteran who has been in the UFC since 2011. He is a very good striker with good power. His long tenure in the UFC has put him against the very best in the world, and his fight IQ is a nice asset for him. He does have solid grappling which could help him in this fight. His power & toughness always gives him a chance in any fight, but I think the overall skill set of Volkanovski will be too much too handle. I will most likely pass on this fight, unless I see a prop later in the week.
davemsh 
I agree the odds are wild, especially the way Volks has won his last few fights. He's looked good, but his fights have been close and very contested. If you back Zombie, I would do so in the early rounds at increased odds. GL this weekend 
PattyBates Both sites you mention are solid. I watch a lot of fights and gather notes and apply that with fighter styles & come up with what I think is a decent prediction according too what the odds are sitting at. I also follow some respected MMA minds and see how they line up with my thought process. 
i agree with pretty much all of these except Dern and Gall.
Gall is a decent litmus test for young prospects and i really like Malott since he's jumped up to 170. Malott's only loss came to Hakeem Dawodu 8 years ago at 145 lbs. Some of these fighters do these ridiculous weight cuts and idk why they don't just fight at a heavier weight so they don't drain themselves in the lead-up to fight night. I don't think Malott is a future title contender, but i do think he ends up with a UFC ranking in the not too distant future.
Speaking of weight cuts i don't think Dern does herself any favors fighting at 115, she looks unhealthy and exhausted at weigh-in's and i think it carries over into fight night. Dern is a very talented fighter, but Torres is relentless and has the better gas tank. If she can't get the better of Tecia, i would like to see her move up to 125. Should be a good fight though.
Thinking about taking Korean Zombie by KO/TKO (+1000)...i think that's TKZ best pathway to victory, but i expect Volk to grind out a win/ maybe a late finish
Again, thanks for the write-ups they are tremendously valuable
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