Jacoby vs Oleksiejczuk
Opening fight of the night. Jacoby hasn't lost a fight since 2015 & is on a nice run. He is a very good kick boxer with great kicks and solid volume. He uses his kicks really well too open up other avenues for him. He does like too work the body also so keep an eye on that. Oleksiejczuk is on a 2 fight win streak & will look too keep things rolling. He like Jacoby is a solid striker. He is smaller for the division, but makes up for it with his speed. He likes using his movement & speed too keep his opponent at bay and pick apart his opponent. Both guys are fighting well right now & I think whoever comes in early and dictates the pace will have success. I lean Jacoby as I think he is the more diverse and complete striker, but Oleksiejczuk is tough and I think he will give Jacoby a tough time. Betting wise I like the fight to go distance at +120 but I will wait & see before pulling the trigger on anything.
Klein vs Smith
Short notice fight for Klein. He is on a 2 fight losing streak & will look too get back on track. He is a solid striker with solid accuracy. He has had weight issues in the past, but this fight is at 155 not 145 which he normally fights at, so I dont see that being an issue. He does have solid kicks so that is something he might look to use and something too keep an eye on. In comes Smith. He has alternated wins/losses in his last 4. He like Klein is a good striker & has solid power. He does tend too pick his shots and when he does, he is normally pretty precise and accurate with his strikes. His take down defense has held up recently, so if Klein does decide too grapple/wrestle it will be interesting too see how Smith reacts. I actually think Klein is the more complete fighter in this match up, but his inability too fight a complete fight the last 2 times has me shying away. I wont spend the money on Smith, so I will most likely pass unless I have a change of heart later in the week.
Elliott vs Ulanbekov
Weird match up here. Tim Elliott lost his last fight in October. He is the definition of a gritty fighter. He is always marching forward & applying pressure regardless if hes winning or losing, and that is his best asset. He is not very technical in his striking & wrestling, and his IQ sometimes cost's him a dominate position. Ulanbekov is 2-0 since joining the UFC, both wins by decision. He is a dominate wrestler, and I expect him to do just that in this fight. I actually think the forward pressure of Elliott might work in Ulanbekov's favor, and will open up some early opportunity's for easy take downs. Elliott has fought much stiffer competition in his career so that does worry me a bit, but I think the talent level of these two fighters are not on the same level. I like Ulanbekov too dominate, I just don't know how I want too back him just yet.
Nurmagomedov vs Kelleher
Lopsided odds here. Nurmagomedov is 1-0 in the UFC, and he dominated his debut. He is sitting anywhere from -700/-1000 which is crazy for a fighter with 1 UFC fight. Like you probably know, he is a great wrestler, and will not stop until he gets you on the ground. He has solid kicks and uses them well in order to manage range, but his game plan is very obvious, and that is take you down and wrestle you to death. Kelleher is making a quick turnaround. He won a decision about a month ago and is on a 2 fight win streak. He is an experienced fighter with a well rounded skill set but he will have his hands full on the weekend. He is an aggressive fighter who is always looking for a finish, but against the wrestler of Nurmagomedov caliber, I don't see many opportunities for him in this fight. I will most likely pass on this, unless I see a prop I like later in the week.
Moroz vs Agapova
First ladies fight of the night, and this should be a fun fight. Moroz is making her return after a 2 year layoff. She is on a 2 fight win streak, so it will be interesting too see how she looks after a long layoff. She is a solid striker with good volume. She does have good footwork & movement & in this match up against the aggressive Agapova, I think it will benefit her and have her chasing and open up some nice counter strikes. Moroz has also shown decent grappling in her last fight, so if he can mix that in, I like her chances. Agapova is 2-1 since joining the UFC, both wins VIA submission. She is an aggressive fighter with solid power for the division. She is always looking for a finish and that is obvious in her fights, which sometimes gets her in trouble. I think Agapova has the striking/power advantage, but I will bank on the footwork and movement of Moroz to avoid the big shots and ultimately frustrate Agapova. I think if Moroz comes in with a smart game plan, she has a clear path too victory and at +170 I love those odds.
Negumereanu vs Nzechukwu
This should have some fireworks. Negumereanu comes into this fight riding a 2 fight win streak. He is a striker with solid power. He is a tough & durable fighter with a solid skill set. He has shown take downs in the past, which aren't the most technical shots, but he uses his raw strength to get his opponent too the ground if he needs too. He is always coming forward and likes too apply pressure to his opponent. Nzechukwu is 3-2 since joining the UFC. He is striker with real power, and that was obvious in two of his wins, where he was losing pretty bad, and ended up getting KO's. Comeback KO's isn't a great recipe for fighters & he has relied on that too often since joining the UFC. I think Negumereanu has an X factor and that is his ability too work the fight too the ground if things aren't going his way. I cant say the same thing for Nzechukwu, so at +115 I really like Negumereanu in this fight.
Rodriguez vs Xiaonan
Two ladies who have both enjoyed nice runs in the UFC. Rodriguez is on a 3 fight winning streak & will look too keep things rolling. She is a good boxer with legit power. She has good hand speed and movement. Her take down defense was suspect earlier in her career, but in her last fight she showed improvements. She is a well rounded fighter & is a tough opponent for any fighter. Xiaonan was 6-0 in the UFC before losing her last fight last May VIA stoppage. She like Rodriguez is a solid striker. She has good/ clean technique with solid timing on her strikes. She has shown the ability too grapple when needed, and that could be an area of opportunity against the very explosive Rodriguez. I like Rodriguez too win this fight, but don't underestimate Xiaonan. I think the odds are a little lopsided towards Rodriguez, I just cant bring myself to betting against the rolling Rodriguez.
Turner vs Mullarkey
Prelim fight of the night, and this should be a good one. Turner is riding a 3 fight stoppage streak, last 2 VIA submission. He is a very good striker who likes too march forward, but does a good job staying at range while doing so. His take down defense is solid which he might need in this fight. Mullarkey is riding a 2 fight stoppage streak of his own. He seems too be improving in each of his last few fights. He primarily is a grappler, but has shown his striking improvements in his last few fights. If he gets you down he does have solid top pressure and good ground & pound. In this fight I will give the striking advantage too Turner, but I like the striking/grappling combination of Mullarkey in this match up. At +150 I will take those odds.
Prelim picks,
Jacoby/Oleksiejczuk fight go the distance(YES) +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units
Klein wins inside distance +250 - 0.5 units to win 1.25 units
Ulanbekov round 1 submission +750 - 0.25 units to win 1.88 units
Ulanbekov round 2 submission +1000 - 0.25 units to win 2.50 units
Moroz ML +162 - 1.5 units to win 2.43 units
Negumereanu ML +115 - 2 units to win 2.30 units
Mullarkey ML +125 - 1 units to win 1.25 units
Mullarkey by submission +700 - 0.25 units to win 1.75 units
FULL CARD - 
Prelim picks,
Jacoby/Oleksiejczuk fight go the distance(YES) +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units
Klein wins inside distance +250 - 0.5 units to win 1.25 units
Ulanbekov round 1 submission +750 - 0.25 units to win 1.88 units
Ulanbekov round 2 submission +1000 - 0.25 units to win 2.50 units
Moroz ML +162 - 1.5 units to win 2.43 units
Negumereanu ML +115 - 2 units to win 2.30 units
Mullarkey ML +125 - 1 units to win 1.25 units
Mullarkey by submission +700 - 0.25 units to win 1.75 units
Main Card picks,
Spivak wins in rounds 1 +275 - 0.5 units to win 1.38 units
Spivak wins in round 2 +550 - 0.5 units to win 2.75 units
Barboza ML +140 - 1 unit to win 1.40 units
Parlays,
Ulanbekov ML/ Rodriguez ML +100 - 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
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